Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

If I am not mistaken didn't the Glosea long range go for a mild winter overall? I think  someone mentioned they failed to spot the Canadian warming? If this  cold spell come to pass,  could it be in the main due to the Canadian  warming wearing the strat vortex? Did the winter  of 1963 have a Canadian  warning?

Decembers update was less good than previous months (still decent but it seemed to miss the CW in early December so many decided it wasn’t worth too much attention.  But glosea runs more than monthly - it’s just that it only updates once on Copernicus each month.  Hence Exeter’s monthly update began to take an ssw into account as December went on. Clearly the beginning December glosea run was dodgy! 

Edited January 3 by bluearmy

[Ice Day]

GFS and Control at 216

 

Very much on the same page.  Improving mean for the same time also.

[Cold Winter Night]

19 minutes ago, Polaris said:

Remember the 12s gave us this on 28th Nov at D13 

As we all know… never happened. 
 

If the latest 12s showing at T96 then I’ll get my sledge ready! 

Well, of course it's tongue in cheek to make the 1963 comparison, as we are all aware that the GFS fun and games are deep FI for now.
For serious forecasts it is indeed wise to stick to charts within 120h.

However, with the background signals as they right now, and with what we've seen in many ensembles over the past week, this extended GFS scenario is at least more likely, better supported than the one you showed for mid December, which was an extreme outlier in its ensemble that went against the expectation of a more mobile pattern setting up mid December.

[Man With Beard]

28 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Question for long time model watchers. When the charts consistently showing colder temps out in F1 which then come into the medium term, is it still feasible it can all go belly up??

It's a weird thing - over the past 15 years, most of the significant cold spells have been picked up well before arriving - 2018 beast from the east was remarkably counted down literally from D15 by the GFS mean and 2010 was fairly well signalled aside a slight wobble just before the infamous Christmas freeze-up. Occasionally there's a late surprise (Jan 2013) and a massive fail (Dec 2012). But when the signal is really strong on the mean charts (not ops), it tends to deliver even if that signal is beyond D10. I'm starting to think we're in that category for the period Jan 15-20. But I'll be nervous all the same until D4 .

[northwestsnow]

Watch EC blow a fart

[Scott Ingham]

1 hour ago, IanT said:

@Scott Ingham day = Jan 15th..?

Hard to keep up with the volume of posts here!

 

I can confirm yes. Yes it is the 15th

[suxer]

22 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

If the latest CANSIP seasonal is anything to go by blocking could last through February & March. 

Current MJO/GWO progression does favour the likelihood of repeated periods of blocking/cold spells with a waxing & waning of blocking inbetween. 

We are entering the most exciting winter period probably since 2009/2010. 

Love your updates lately mate 

[Mark wheeler]

Thats 5 out of 5 models with an Easterly of sorts but much prefer the UKMO obviously.

Edited January 3 by Mark wheeler

[Cheshire Freeze]

38 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Question for long time model watchers. When the charts consistently showing colder temps out in F1 which then come into the medium term, is it still feasible it can all go belly up??

Is water wet?

[Battleground Snow]

Just running thru the ensembles at 126 and about 8-10 of them are picking up much lower dam heights over the south, (P23) being the lowest.

I wouldn't bank on it being a mainly dry easterly just yet with the incremental upgrades we seem to be getting on each suite.

I've attached a few examples 

[phil nw.]

My word what a set of 12zs so far.

The cold easterly now showing is a bonus so would expect those 2m temperatures to go even lower than first thought than would have under a UK high.It wouldn't need much of an upgrade to induce some snow showers but that is for nearer the time.

The overall pattern towards Greenland heights continues to countdown and now within 10 days and counting.Ens. mean anomalies have been pretty solid on this.

W are looking at a pretty significant cold spell now,easterly to north/northeasterly.A classic solid -AO/-NAO pattern lasting for 2 weeks minimum if this trend continues.

Come on ECM let's have a full house this evening.  

[Polaris]

3 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Well, of course it's tongue in cheek to make the 1963 comparison, as we are all aware that the GFS fun and games are deep FI for now.
For serious forecasts it is indeed wise to stick to charts within 120h.

However, with the background signals as they right now, and with what we've seen in many ensembles over the past week, this extended GFS scenario is at least more likely, better supported than the one you showed for mid December, which was an extreme outlier in its ensemble that went against the expectation of a more mobile pattern setting up mid December.

Thats a brave call at 13 days, We've had convincing background signals at a shorter timeframe along with stonking ensembles lots of times before in winters. You only have to look at this thread early this morning to realise how flips happen. 

But history tells us that the 'not cold' or 'not so cold' flip usually wins. 

As you say anything serious HAS TO COME INTO the 5 day (120hr) 

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Is water wet?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Control is ona roll..this is getting ever so slowly very tasty.

[Jason M]

At day 10 there is good support for GFS opp across its ensembles. 

Much too far out to be anything other than a passing interest at this stage. It does make synoptic sense though as a punchy northerly or attack from NE has looked a possibility for some days post this UK high. 

[Scott Ingham]

50 minutes ago, Catacol said:

And here we have it - @Scott Inghamday once again. There is a bit of a theme growing here....and all fun aside 15 Jan is rather consistently looking very tasty. Scott - how much for a day with your crystal ball?

Hahaha I wish I had a crystal ball! I could have picked 2 days either side to account for the lag in GLAAM

[February1978]

2 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

Is water wet?

Not when it's powder snow!

[northwestsnow]

Some of these NH plots are ridiculous !!

[sheikhy]

I just know my ecm gona be a right party pooper lol!!!cmon behave for once buddy!!!!!.........

[geordiekev]

Well caught up on the last 12hrs & wow. D Reamy. Quickest I've used nearly all my likes.

We really are spoilt for choice of stonking options, now we just need some kind of concensus. Personally I'd like to see the split flow as long it's favourable ofcourse, as not sure I've seen one make it to D1 so would be interesting to witness the results

 

[CoventryWeather]

Went offline for a little while and come back to this! 

Such a big flip to a cold easterly - let's keep the upgrades coming (just get the uppers towards -10/11 a bit more frequently now). 

[AO-]

Incredible chart at day 11 from GFS operational. Was it the coldest dat in Kvikkjok yesterday, it seems like some more records are about to be broken if this chart verifies. 

[Bats32]

Well,well,well my interest is piqued. Let's get the ECM on board now!

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Control is ona roll..this is getting ever so slowly very tasty.

 

[Ice Day]

The strength of signal on the 252 mean shows that there's going to be a lot of ensemble support.