Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[steveinsussex]

But where does it sit in the ENS

[tight isobar]

Gfs 18.. sliding into line with its Canadian sister mod- nearly txt book blocking via Greenland.. and a polar spillage of some awe !!

[The Northern Ramper]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

A mild outlier.

[IanT]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

It’s probably a cold outlier. This run is for the bin…

[booferking]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

You'll find out in 30 mins.

[Gypo]

There's going below 528 and then there's taking the you know what!!

Amazing charts

[MJB]

Just so we are a bit grounded ECM and GFS 240 charts 

The stunning GFS 

The dithering ECM, it has 10 days to get it's house in order

 

 

 

 

Edited January 7 by MJB

[tight isobar]

Classic locked in cold from this point… should we arrive here !!!

[mountain shadow]

Now this is a proper Northerly. 

Beautiful. 

[Zero Visibility]

GFS you tease, start counting down now. BANK 

[Vikos]

10 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

Upgrades all round today and the 18z just tips it,...good old pub classic.

 

Omg snowmargedon for me

[Dignity]

Just now, MJB said:

Just so we are a bit grounded ECM and GFS 240 charts 

 

The stunning GFS 

The dithering ECM 

Thankfully days to put ECM right 

Even anywhere between those two outcomes would be just fine. Heck I'd probably be happy with the ECM as it stood as the progression after would be interesting.

Let's get this all into the reliable and rejoice hopefully!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

On a frozen bench

but in all seriousness i do hope that the gefs ens follows the op

a disturbance running N>S on this run,...a polar low?

 

[ICE COLD]

The block is just sitting there not budging. What a run . 

[Spah1]

7 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

But where does it sit in the ENS

Who cares !

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Zero Visability said:

GFS you tease, start counting down now. BANK 

We’ve been counting down for a week already!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The block is just sitting there not budging. What a run . 

All we need now is for the real weather to follow suit? 

[Met4Cast]

Slightly improved GEFS mean in terms of blocking strength.

12z

18z

 

[MJB]

Disturbance running down the N Sea gives Snow for some 

[Zero Visibility]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

We’ve been counting down for a week already!

I know, but it's nice to dream, this one might come true.

[Johnp]

Fancy we might get an easterly later this run. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

The 12 z was a stormer too.  Different in deep FI but more or less same cold but different angle.  Whets the appetite somewhat 

 

BFTP

[Froze were the Days]

Old school synoptics right there!...just wish ECM would throw a few out at D10. A more positive model viewing day then yesterday.

[North Easterly Breeze]

Genuinely fascinating viewing around the 200hr mark. The floodgates are well and truly open by 222. What a chart!

[Scott Ingham]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Let the upgrades flow.

Yea how often do you see a pattern get set, fall away for 2 or 3 days then come all the way back around to what was stated? I’m seeing Greenland heights upgrading and most importantly prolonging. The messyness for me will go. The shortwave went progged 48 hours ago around the 12th and I feel these on this run will because as it gets close and momentum is upgraded due to it not being modelled very well we’ll see the pattern become more robust further north. The reason I think this is true this time is due to short term upgrades on our uk high. It tells me it’s not picking up on +AAM very well untik we count down to the day.