Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Rob 79812010]

Beeb monthly pretty much aligning to model output. Brief average or slightly above for a week in last week jan with Scotland probably staying below. This after a pretty lengthy cold spell for most.Then goes cold again to welcome Feb. This is all very tasty indeed

[Malarky]

Just now, stripeyfox said:

you won't be able to resist mate!

 

 

I’ll be looking at the who’s online list

[northwestsnow]

I've not seen the mood so high for a long time on NW!!

Let's hope the upgrades continue tonight  

[SussexSnow]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

I've not seen the mood so high for a long time on NW!!

Let's hope the upgrades continue tonight  

Or we'll see toys lobbed everywhere 

[Nick2373]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EXETER !!!!!!

 

Wow just read it. 

[easton888]

Wo are we still thinking the 16th for the fun to begin?

[Hammy79]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

As old as i am Nick i can't help feeling this anticipation looking at the prospects of a long cold spell. ie.2 weeks plus.They are not common these days but given all the latest information within the excellent posts by our telecon experts and the longer term charts showing a blocked February then it's hard not to be optimistic for the rest of Winter.

Mmmm  just a thought 1947 didn't really get going until later in January,surely we won't get anything that severe now can we? 

 

Model discussion only please 

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, Hammy79 said:

 

Model discussion only please 

Forgive me this upbeat mood caught me out,although i did touch on the longer range models.

[WolfeEire]

ICON 12Z has a better angle on the incoming cold airmass (northerly) due to the heights retreating further west than they did on the 00z

[Hammy79]

Just now, phil nw. said:

Forgive me this upbeat mood caught me out,although i did touch on the longer range models.

Was a poor attempt at a joke on my behalf.. 

BRING ON THE 1947 REPEAT! !

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. 

Bloody hell. This is probably the strongest wording I've seen you use in terms of cold & significant winter weather impact potential for NW Europe. In essence, teleconnections remain solid for -NAO and -AO throughout the rest of winter with likely repeated periods of high latitude blocking. The next MJO cycle progresses eastwards will see a return to strong +FT & +MT driving total AAM tendency upwards once again from an already high established Nino (+AAM) base state. 

Myself and @Catacolhad noted that AAM tendency had bottomed out & returned to more neutral/positive values faster than anticipated, reading your post it seems you had expected a greater fall than observed too (GWO remaining above phase 4).

Thanks Tamara. As someone who is a lover of cold/snowy weather but also tries to remain balanced & unbiased in the context of the GSDM, for me, this is a very exciting update!!

Though of course, more regional (UK) based milage may vary, macro vs micro.

@Tamara (and Met4)..

Would you think that the Met office/ BBC should send out a red alert for the upcoming?

(Or possibly not in the BBC's case as  would they even understand it?) 

I must say I am learning more and more from you on these connections with the Tropics. It gives a longer term (1 week or more), that we can view the atmospheric characteristics, and have a good chance of being correct. 

 Like Met4 , and although I am no expert yet, I really find your analysis interesting.

Lets hope that you are correct. Despite my 80 years of age I am happy (for the first time really) that despite the advancements in computer technology we are making real progress in being able to forecast for everybody - even in today's chaotic worlds. 

I have nothing against computers - I spent a whole career working with them - but unless you are absolutely spot on with your assumptions - they can be a long way out. Currently most of your assumptions are not handled by the large beasts at all, because  there is no way that they can mathematically be  programmed (just yet!). But I am sure it will come now.

With many thanks ..

MIA 

 

Edited January 10 by Midlands Ice Age

[offerman]

8 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Wow just read it. 

Hi Nick

Can you post a link please to it? Thanks 

[Nick2373]

1 minute ago, offerman said:

Hi Nick

Can you post a link please to it? Thanks 

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

[Jason M]

2 hours ago, Bricriu said:

It looks like a lot of ensembles are trending the wrong way in fi contrary to the op runs. It's a long way out anyway to worry about it. Also there is a chance they could change to extending the cold. As long as the UKMO update remains bullish about the long range I am happy enough.

100%. I was just explaining why they were not great.

The GFS opp was a huge cold outlier but it made sense to me so although anything that far out is complete guesswork for our tiny Island, I'm thinking the opp made more sense than GEFS.

 

[offerman]

Just now, Nick2373 said:

Often cloudy across clearing central and southern areas at first. Thereafter, turning colder from the North, with brisk northerly winds likely developing widely across of the UK, bringing a risk of snow showers, most frequent across the north. Temperatures remaining cold, and a marked wind chill especially in the north. There is risk of unsettled weather pushing in from the south through this period, which could lead to a band of snow and sleet where it meets the colder air across the country. Confidence is low with regards the timing of the arrival of any such disturbance, but there is an increasing risk of something potentially disruptive at some point in this period. Widespread frosts continue to be a feature by night, with a risk of ice in places.

Updated: 14:00 (UTC) on Wed 10 Jan 2024

Thanks for posting this Nick, but we should all be careful as they said the confidence is low.

it’s like looking at charts in FI 

It’s still a long way off and the confidence is low, would be great if it comes off, just have to be a bit cautious really. 

[Vikos]

29 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Max balloon data is 00Z and 12Z

1.6 GB data 00/12z to ~120 MB 06/18z

[goosey007]

57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

OMG this is getting very exciting .

What a lovely upgrade on the ECM 06 hrs run .

We see that nuisance high lobe over France suppressed and the shortwave looks like it will clear before the Atlantic low gets too close .

 

Please tell me you’re not on Cyprus Nick ! Right I am due to Book Tenerife today /tomorrow to go Saturday but don’t want to miss the snow I have a terrible dilemma only a coldy would understand …was hoping this was going to water down as usual but it’s ramping up ……help where I am it could still just be cold rain with snow m4 north….

[Chertseystreamer79]

3 minutes ago, offerman said:

Hi Nick

Can you post a link please to it? Thanks 

It's the same text as before no?? Even though it says updated at 14.00utc....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Oh no!!!! Noooooooo!’   12z flat as pancake

 

BFTP

Edited January 10 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Nick2373]

2 minutes ago, Chertseystreamer79 said:

It's the same text as before no?? Even though it says updated at 14.00utc....

No this is for the date from the 15th-23rd of Jan. 

Edited January 10 by Nick2373

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Oh no!!!! Noooooooo!

 

BFTP

Runs to check icon....

Looks fine to me at 120..if anything a smidge quicker bringing the cold in

Edited January 10 by TSNWK

[tight isobar]

The German 1 @96.. decent slant n, shape to the father flow!!.. and those shorts are being ushered away via now governing cell placement 

[DJ Fart]

21 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Or "Boa Tarde" as its pm

Yeah, didn't want to go there though as it might have been morning when she started typing...!

[Hatewarmth]

17 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:

Wow just read it. 

Can you send the link plesse

[nick sussex]

Just now, goosey007 said:

Please tell me you’re not on Cyprus Nick ! Right I am due to Book Tenerife today /tomorrow to go Saturday but don’t want to miss the snow I have a terrible dilemma only a coldy would understand …was hoping this was going to water down as usual but it’s ramping up ……help where I am it could still just be cold rain with snow m4 north….

Yes I’m here till next week. I’m hoping of course to return to a very wintry UK !

As for your Tenerife trip that’s a dilemma for sure . Bless you for thinking what many coldies would think . My friends call the people in here the “ snow people “ . People think I’m crazy , but my saying “ tired of snow tired of life !