Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it? 

But not if it actually moves up the channel.......

[Harveyslugger]

1 minute ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

But not if it actually moves up the channel.......

Models already have good agreement on the track

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I feel this winter hiatus is going to take ages. It wont be before at least second week of February before GWO hits phases that erode European high pressure in south/centre regions. Even Phase 6 GWO doesnt scrape too múch high pressure when its needed. This is well backed Up by Rossby Wave driven algoritms by P.Roundy and consonant chaos website. Looking at date now its 15.01 so its like 4 full weeks of hiatus with hardly any winter with then quite pointless unnecesary surge of cold when too Late in my view. The hearth of winter is basically snowless in central Europe thats looking like between 24.12 and 10.02 whith coolish start and "possibly" cold end of winter. Almonst a reversal of what one wants to see.

Jules - your MJO composites are Jan for 7 and feb for 6. 

[TillyS]

It looks pretty nasty for southern Britain on Sunday/Monday on the 6z GFS:

 

And then another, a little less severe, for the north on Tuesday:

 

We might write this off as the GFS overdoing a storm but it’s the same on the 0z UKMO.

[Gowon]

Can't do a gif for the KMA but it's decent.

It gives us a nasty storm early next week but then the whole pattern amplifies nicely:

[TillyS]

45 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hope it's wrong, could end up with a scenario like that of January 2nd 1976 for my area , one of the worst wind storms to date for this area....

Yes indeed. That was a very serious storm if the reports are to be believed. 

Gale of January 1976 - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

I’m not sure the one on Sunday night / Monday will be of the same magnitude but it is looking as if the Atlantic is winding up to return with a vengeance. 

The absence of northern blocking again  

[Rain All Night]

9 minutes ago, Gowon said:

Can't do a gif for the KMA but it's decent.

It gives us a nasty storm early next week but then the whole pattern amplifies nicely:

You can if you hack the URL around a bit, there's one in my post on the previous page, though only out to day 7.

Try this: https://images.meteociel.fr/makegifanim.php?url=https%3A%2F%2Fmodeles3.meteociel.fr%2Fmodeles%2Fkma%2Frun%2Fkma-0-[6%3A288%3A6].png

Edited January 15 by RainAllNight
Added tweaked URL

[johncam]

3 hours ago, Vikos said:

A lot of moaining going on here. Why? Just because this mild interlude? Some will rub their eyes… no confidence in cold spells but mild is rock solid carved in stone? 

Sad thing , looking at models it usually is , nothing remotely cold after this week right till end of latest output 

[Mcconnor8]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Atlantic low drama needs to just make its mind up .

The models keep throwing out the odd scrap to southern coldies and it’s just painful .

After the ICON 06 hrs run I thought that was a good sign only for the GFS to shoot that down in flames .

 

Arome gives hope for the far South East

[SussexSnow]

6 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Arome gives hope for the far South East

There has to be a positive (from a winter perspective) of living on the south coast.   

[nick sussex]

23 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Arome gives hope for the far South East

The models just refuse to really break through the snow shield with these coastal teases .

At this timeframe there’s still room for changes but we do need the 12 hrs runs to collectively push things north .

 

[SussexSnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The models just refuse to really break through the snow shield with these coastal teases .

At this timeframe there’s still room for changes but we do need the 12 hrs runs to collectively push things north .

 

There is still a bump of 'New Snow' showing for Horsham from the GEFS, but it's shrunk a little since yesterday

 

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

There is still a bump of 'New Snow' showing for Horsham from the GEFS, but it's shrunk a little since yesterday

 

I think it’s going to be a struggle to get the precip that far north . Frustrating as the set up could have produced some real fireworks .

[Cambrian]

These are interesting to look at - the 0z EPS 200mb winds for the North Atlantic, synonymous with the jet stream.

The animation for days 1-5 shows its reinvigoration, heading northeast out of the US, making a beeline towards the UK and Ireland.

Days 6-10 shows the northern arm of the jet stream readily weakening and dipping south over the mid Atlantic before splitting (bifurcating is the word I am told!) around the southern European high pressure. 

To be taken with a pinch of salt for days 10-15, but at face value, some indications that the northern arm will continue to weaken, with the southern arm becoming more dominant. The trend over the US is interesting with the jet stream noticeably sinking south and strengthening towards the end of the run, which raises the eyebrows with a longer range mean. 

This all fits with the strong NAO+ signal in yesterday’s ECM46 weather regime forecast becoming established by the 21st, but as currently shown, it’s a relatively sharp peaking in mobility that weakens by the end of the month, with a strong and persistent blocking signal thereafter. 

  

The pressure anomalies for the first two weeks of February show high pressure steadily building north through the UK and Ireland, consistent with the weakening of the northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream shown in the EPS. 

A long way off, but something considerably more blocked being indicated, possibly worth looking out for more evidently coming into the range of the NWP models over the next few days.

[Rain All Night]

11 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

These are interesting to look at - the 0z EPS 200mb winds for the North Atlantic, synonymous with the jet stream.

The animation for days 1-5 shows its reinvigoration, heading northeast out of the US, making a beeline towards the UK and Ireland.

Days 6-10 shows the northern arm of the jet stream readily weakening and dipping south over the mid Atlantic before splitting (bifurcating is the word I am told!) around the southern European high pressure. 

To be taken with a pinch of salt for days 10-15, but at face value, some indications that the northern arm will continue to weaken, with the southern arm becoming more dominant. The trend over the US is interesting with the jet stream noticeably sinking south and strengthening towards the end of the run, which raises the eyebrows with a longer range mean. 

This all fits with the strong NAO+ signal in yesterday’s ECM46 weather regime forecast becoming established by the 21st, but as currently shown, it’s a relatively sharp peaking in mobility that weakens by the end of the month, with a strong and persistent blocking signal thereafter. 

  

The pressure anomalies for the first two weeks of February show high pressure steadily building north through the UK and Ireland, consistent with the weakening of the northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream shown in the EPS. 

A long way off, but something considerably more blocked being indicated, possibly worth looking out for more evidently coming into the range of the NWP models over the next few days.

The hope... it burns!!

[bluearmy]

Possibly seeing a destination and evolution for two weeks time 

Every chance that in week two we see an amplification of the euro ridge north but likely on a positive tilt of the northern arm to our west. This is well advertised on the gefs in week 2.   Nwp then trends to a notable Alaskan ridge which drives a downstream trough and takes the ne canadian vortex axis away from the Labrador Sea  and into e Canada.  Gefs and geps are then flattening the sceuro ridge with a weak areas of low anoms headed towards n scandi.  These two evolutions could allow the sceuro ridge to then retrogress into the Atlantic and some  WAA driven by the upstream trough could deliver enough amplitude to bring colder air south across nw Europe 

this isn’t a prediction but it is a way of putting some of the jigsaw pieces together which fit telecon expectations for early feb (and seasonals ). 

shame we can’t see ec46 week 3 clusters. 

 

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Possibly seeing a destination and evolution for two weeks time 

Every chance that in week two we see an amplification of the euro ridge north but likely on a positive tilt of the northern arm to our west. This is well advertised on the gefs in week 2.   Nwp then trends to a notable Alaskan ridge which drives a downstream trough and takes the ne canadian vortex axis away from the Labrador Sea  and into e Canada.  Gefs and geps are then flattening the sceuro ridge with a weak areas of low anoms headed towards n scandi.  These two evolutions could allow the sceuro ridge to then retrogress into the Atlantic and some  WAA driven by the upstream trough could deliver enough amplitude to bring colder air south across nw Europe 

this isn’t a prediction but it is a way of putting some of the jigsaw pieces together which fit telecon expectations for early feb (and seasonals ). 

shame we can’t see ec46 week 3 clusters. 

 

Bloomin heck.. sounds fraught with complications.  Can't we  just have an ssw to smash up the vortex and take our chances when the music stops,  the parts land.

Edited January 15 by TSNWK

[Nick2373]

06z shows the trend for something above temp and dryer this run seems to have dropped a day to the 24th from this mornings run which had it at the 25th,  also the ppn spike seem to be dropping when observing the GEFS Its all about the trend in the pattern. it picked up on the current cold spell, there now also seems to be a few members starting to look like dipping below the 30year mean from around 30th of Jan again one to watch. So it looks to be a short lived affair in terms of zonal as some have put, looks like four days then a return to something dryer, if the sky's are clear this will certainly deliver frosty nights. 

[WinterOf47]

The temp anomalies for later in the month are really getting toasty. I would be very happy if they weren’t accompanied by cloudy gloom. If an Azores or Iberian high sets up with a less cloudy flow, I would be well pleased…beats spending days agonising over whether it will or won’t snow.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

37 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

These are interesting to look at - the 0z EPS 200mb winds for the North Atlantic, synonymous with the jet stream.

The animation for days 1-5 shows its reinvigoration, heading northeast out of the US, making a beeline towards the UK and Ireland.

Days 6-10 shows the northern arm of the jet stream readily weakening and dipping south over the mid Atlantic before splitting (bifurcating is the word I am told!) around the southern European high pressure. 

To be taken with a pinch of salt for days 10-15, but at face value, some indications that the northern arm will continue to weaken, with the southern arm becoming more dominant. The trend over the US is interesting with the jet stream noticeably sinking south and strengthening towards the end of the run, which raises the eyebrows with a longer range mean. 

This all fits with the strong NAO+ signal in yesterday’s ECM46 weather regime forecast becoming established by the 21st, but as currently shown, it’s a relatively sharp peaking in mobility that weakens by the end of the month, with a strong and persistent blocking signal thereafter. 

  

The pressure anomalies for the first two weeks of February show high pressure steadily building north through the UK and Ireland, consistent with the weakening of the northern arm of the Atlantic jet stream shown in the EPS. 

A long way off, but something considerably more blocked being indicated, possibly worth looking out for more evidently coming into the range of the NWP models over the next few days.

 Brilliant post.  Yes we see this Euro HP set up, it isn’t going away but it doesn’t mean it will be a slug in situ…..the gradual shift northward (be it N/NE/NE) plausible, if slow.  
It is what it is from this weekend, but don’t despair.  I’m still waiting for Wednesday to see what signals are picked up….but enough in the 06 suite to keep me nicely interested

 BFTP

[Battleground Snow]

Not much to discuss in the long term at the moment.

Scandinavian heights are still likely towards the final days of January, ecm eps looks to perhaps to get there a little faster than the gefs. You can just see right at the end of the run them migrating up from Europe.

Tpv looks anchored to Greenland on the EPS, but cold from the east is still possible if a scandi high has enough strength, hoping to see the mjo wave keep high enough amplitude as it goes it 7, generally the higher the amplitude the stronger the block.

 

Edited January 15 by Battleground Snow

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Hints from the 6z ens of something colder towards months end..im confident the output will begin to improve towards the weekend. Chase no3 is fully within my sights now folks.

Join me for another more ups and downs than a UK B road ride!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

19th Jan 1986…..anyway back from that?

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 15 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Notice the dip back on ens from the mogreps towards backend of weekend here..dont be ruling out something wintry with the 1st push of Atlantic systems..thats worth keeping tabs on. 

Output is never set in stone,it can flip at the drop of an hat..keep that in mind and your days will be a little less stressed.

[Midlands Ice Age]

24 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

If I'm not mistaken, wasn't Feb 86 the imfamous "too cold for snow" month?

Yep thats an old saying.

Interestingly the same could have been said about the last 3 cold out breaks.

On each of them a very cold pool of dry Arctic air has moved down and settled over us at the base of the trough.

Currently this air is extremely dry aloft (3000m and above), with little daily warming to shuffle the pack. It picks up some moisture from the sea for favoured spots, but the rest of us get the beautiful clear blue skies, which we yearned for a couple of weeks ago.

    As nicked from Metwatch in the MIdlands thread (Chester soundings - no sign yet of a Cheshire gap streamer setting up.

MIA

Edited January 15 by Midlands Ice Age