Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?

[LRD]

18 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's just dawned on me ...

If EC goes down the GFS/GEM route by   day 10 I'm going to have to strat myself in,again..

Typo intended?  

[Met4Cast]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It's just dawned on me ...

If EC goes down the GFS/GEM route by   day 10 I'm going to have to strat myself in,again..

Not sure I have the energy for another round of this nonsense

Good to see the first hints of something appearing in the extended outlooks though. Keeping an eye on the ensembles, would like to see more dipping into cold/deep cold territory..

[Troubleatmill]

I think it's safe to say the GEFS are buying into the whole Scandinavian high possibility 

[That ECM]

Just now, Troubleatmill said:

I think it's safe to say the GEFS are buying into the whole Scandinavian high possibility 

Yep. Control going for it.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Drifter said:

Am I the only saddo that finds the formation of a Scandi high really fascinating? It’s highly satisfying watching the ridges shoot up along with the discontinuous trough disruption out west. 

Not all all. 

The reason most of us are weather geeks is the chasing down of rare and unusual weather synoptics.

Scandi Highs in Winter are uncommon and therefore much more interesting than the usual Iceland low and Iberian High.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

For me I would say 7 or 8 day mild spell before more settled further South bringing back some colder perhaps frosty nights..the possibilities being thrown up by gfs and now gem has been there for a fair few runs now,so it's deserves respect. Plenty of ensembles are also siding with it.

Chase no3? No problem...im only just warming up...you ain't seen nothing yet

[carinthian]

Looks like some fast moving events for the rest January across The British Isles. Change this weekend from Arctic Flow to Stormy Atlantic few days. Looking at the extended chart below, if memory serves me correct this is a text book upper flow that preludes a Scandinavian High development and Easterly into the British Isles. The change over could be rapid, so hang on to your hats. Obviously a rise in temperatures early next week but sure won't feel mild in Northern Scotland as the colder air will return at times after the passage of the predicted left exit deep low formations along an active frontal boundary to develop across the North Atlantic Sunday into Tues.

C

[Jeremy Shockey]

GFS 12z Op 850's for 2nd Feb

Worth keeping an eye on without getting too excited for another 7 days or so

[WYorksWeather]

GFS 12z is interesting temperature wise. Something of an upgrade on the temperatures for the period 22nd-26th, which now looks exceptionally mild, but more of a downgrade after that, with temperatures nearer normal.

It will be interesting to see what the ECM makes of it later.

Overall headline from me is much the same as the last few days. Very mild last third of the month overall, possibility of a daily record at the upper end of possibilities around the mildest period, a drop-off towards the end towards slightly milder than average or average conditions rather than exceptionally mild.

The building blocks of something colder may start to assemble by the end of the month, but I think any proper cold weather will start in February.

Going to wait for the 15z UKV later before commenting further on potential storm risk.

[nick sussex]

Back in the UK and enjoying the sunny frosty weather which sadly is going to be replaced by a spell of horrible extremely windy and wet conditions .

Some damaging winds on the way unfortunately.

After this spell of bad weather some suggestions we’re going to see an attempt to build pressure towards Scandi .

So the digging Atlantic troughing results in pressure trying to rise to the ne of that .

The question of course is can you get enough dig south and can you get the jet cutback into the Low Countries with the trigger shortwave .

Still uncertainty there but it’s a lot more interesting than discussing the coming monsoon !

[geordiekev]

12 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

GFS 12z Op 850's for 2nd Feb

Worth keeping an eye on without getting too excited for another 7 days or so

Pretty sure I got down by a few for suggesting the Azores HP can often lead to greatness & shouldn't be treat with the whitewash distain it does. MJOs evolution of about 14 days, AAM & ongoing amplification within the global NH system was always going to present opps.

So 14 days from now seems about right

[jules216]

6 hours ago, bluearmy said:

You’d expect any response likely within the next two weeks to now be picked up by the models (especially eps ) as the warmings of the past three weeks are pretty much done 

nothing solid showing yet although the scandi ridge solution is the most common departure from the norm that we are seeing play out 

@jules216 - I think you’re in a decent  location for weeks 2 and 3. Either a cold trough or a good chance of a hit from a deep cold pool 

There is a hint of easterlies on the GEFS but I need to see more traction elsewhere. There is reasonable presumption that this time around the route to cold if.it materializes will come from the east and at least not west based -NAO threat. Also with where high pressure is situated in the begining we wont have to endure endless rain before that. In november and december the very wet precursor pattern leading Up to first snap meant that ground was not enough deep Frozen and even 12cm fall next day settled in to 6-7cm and first hint of +1 managed to thaw Snow in a day. This is very important here. Imagine past 7-10 days there was Tmin every night around -9/-11 and soil like a rock, then Yesterday 4cm fell and even after 20hr today of +1/+2 and 5mm rain from 4cm 2cm survived. Wish this would have Been precursor on 25.11 but it was too early in season for solid soil freeze. Picture today earlier which is not pretty,but its shows how durable this 4cm fall Yesterday is proving to be.

Edited January 18 by jules216

[Daniel*]

38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not all all. 

The reason most of us are weather geeks is the chasing down of rare and unusual weather synoptics.

Scandi Highs in Winter are uncommon and therefore much more interesting than the usual Iceland low and Iberian High.

They’re typically more common later in winter that’s my experience, so it sort of follows climatology, getting one in December which can produce is very uncommon, things tend to settle down more later in winter with high pressure more influential. February is third driest month in London, interestingly on 1981-2010 climatology February was driest month of year. A reflection of how our winters have changed, February particularly has changed similarly December, in contrast to January which has been more static in last 20 years. 2024 likely adding to that. 

[Rocheydub]

On the tip of the realms of LALA land, the 192 from 12z ECM is interesting.Heights rising in Scandy, but the big blob of Vortex to our west has us in mild gusting SW'lies. Plenty of scope for improvement there. Still. very encouraging the NWP's keep showing Svalbard heights. 

[Jason M]

So, looking through the charts it looks like we will see a period where Iberian heights rule. That bit is nailed on as we have almost 100% multi run / ensemble agreement on this.

Once we get beyond day 8 there is a signal for focus of heights to change focus from Iberia to become more 'mid latitude'. Other than the odd chart were not seeing loads of high latitude blocking but the GEFS for example are mostly pointing to some form of mid latitude high. So, were looking at a UK high (again )  or a one centered initially over southern Scandi or low countries and sinking. Its notable in nearly all ensembles that the northern arm of the jet is overrunning any high.

Where do I think we will end up? Well, I reckon the current GFS opp (12Z) will be pretty close to where we get to. So, colder yes, but a 'beast' is highly unlikely. Lots of time for changes for better or worse though.

If I'm right and like me, you want snow,  flights to Athens might be good value 

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

Looking like the ecm not interested in the initial easterly set up..

[Troubleatmill]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

They’re typically more common later in winter that’s my experience, so it sort of follows climatology, getting one in December which can produce is very uncommon, things tend to settle down more later in winter with high pressure more influential. February is third driest month in London, interestingly on 1981-2010 climatology February was driest month of year. A reflection of how our winters have changed, February particularly has changed similarly December, in contrast to January which has been more static in last 20 years. 2024 likely adding to that. 

February can be frustrating month can't it, especially the last third unless you get severe cold aka 2018. 

On one hand the PV should be starting to weaken naturally, SSTs are at or approaching there coldest and yet solar energy is increasing

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looking like the ecm not interested in the initial easterly set up..

It was more amplified yesterday to day 8!  
id expect a decent no of eps members that are going to bring a scandi ridge but this op looks to have decent continuity from the 00z run 

Edited January 18 by bluearmy

[AO-]

43 minutes ago, WYorksWeather said:

GFS 12z is interesting temperature wise. Something of an upgrade on the temperatures for the period 22nd-26th, which now looks exceptionally mild, but more of a downgrade after that, with temperatures nearer normal.

It will be interesting to see what the ECM makes of it later.

Overall headline from me is much the same as the last few days. Very mild last third of the month overall, possibility of a daily record at the upper end of possibilities around the mildest period, a drop-off towards the end towards slightly milder than average or average conditions rather than exceptionally mild.

The building blocks of something colder may start to assemble by the end of the month, but I think any proper cold weather will start in February.

Going to wait for the 15z UKV later before commenting further on potential storm risk.

GFS12 is good, but not great. The EPS isn't as good as the 06 either. Nevertheless I'm getting excited by the synoptic pattern. There are still some (large) buts, but I suppose the GFS is heading in the right direction. The WAA is established more West than yesterday which makes the chance of a Scandinavian block bigger. It is a long way to go before the cold gets here with the right setup, but it's a start. 

Edited January 18 by AO-

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It was more amplified yesterday!  
id expect a decent no of eps members that are going to bring a scandi ridge but this op looks to have decent continuity from the 00z run 

Quite right blue..the pv looks very rampant on this run!

[AO-]

5 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Looking like the ecm not interested in the initial easterly set up..

The problem with EC tonight is the WAA being too far east and tilted the wrong way. It is more progressive with the WAA. Small differences are needed upstream to get where the GFS is heading. To start with the high pressure near the coast of the US. Small details will make a big difference, but I suspect the EPS to be more supportive of the GFS scenario. 

[sebastiaan1973]

The direction of the WA is by EC the worse. (216h)

EC, GFS and GEM.

[Stuie]

Looking at the wind issue again for Sunday night/Monday morning. Using the Arpege, western and southern coasts around 50-60 mph gust with Northern Scotland taking the brunt with upto 90 mph gusts.

Not sure what the UKMO values look like but probably the stormiest of all the models.

[Mike Poole]

OK, so it’s a day late with the amplification, ECM T240:

Same page in my book.

[AO-]

Eventually the EC gets there at day ten, but needs a second shot for a HLB. The EC hints more towards retrogression of the Beast from the East. This would be nice if it would have been a cold one, but that is not the case.