Moans, ramps and banter

[Summer8906]

9 hours ago, B87 said:

A year with those months would be catastrophic. I imagine most plant life would be absolutely obliterated, and many would probably leave the country.

It would probably be a better year than Jul 2023 - June 2024 is likely to be, arguably.

The "cold year" above had a terrible summer - but some interesting winter months. May 1996 was also by no means the worst May of recent times: 1981, 1983, 1984, 1994, 2007, and 2021 were far worse. Likewise, reading about October 1974, it looks like there have been many far, far worse Octobers - including, arguably, all of 2019-23.

In that "cold" year I'd rate the Jan-March, May, and Oct-Dec OK - which is 7 months out of 12. June 1972 doesn't look like the worst June ever, either, with slightly below-average rainfall in SE England. The bad weather would be concentrated on the Jul-Sep period: I do agree that those three months are amongst the worst on record.

I'd be more inclined to leave the country  if we had Jul 23-April 24 conditions every year until the end of time!

Edited April 29 by Summer8906

[In Absence of True Seasons]

A nice, bright and sunny morning. Should be feeling warm later with 16c, en route to work at present and there's so still a nippy wind! 

Quite reminiscent of spring 2023 where even into May, it didn't feel particularly warm in the east because of that nagging N.Sea wind.

P.S - cannot recall the last time I saw this icon on my phone! The clear, yellow dot.

 

[Alderc 2.0]

Not quite sure how the model output has ended up looking this bad. Wednesday afternoon and evening looking a complete washout - not sure we’re getting 20C+ plus that chart.

further cloud and rain Friday before what’s now looking like a bank holiday washout as low pressure dominates. 

 

How extremely disappointing - little chance of those temps rising into the low 20s like many of the models were suggesting yesterday. Disheartening beyond belief 

Edited April 29 by Alderc 2.0

[Summer8906]

 Alderc 2.0 GFS 00z isn't quite as bad, to be fair.

[Azazel]

The nice temperatures getting pushed back every morning when I check my weather app  

We’ll be lucky to crack 20 degrees until July at this rate 

[markyo]

Another stunning morning, blue skies, good temp, what's not to like?

[danm]

Lovely morning, lots of sunshine. Should warm up nicely to about 18c this afternoon. 
 

[CoventryWeather]

 Alderc 2.0 likely to be bands of showery and thundery rain. 

Could be a few long-lived storms from Belgium, but there uncertainty on that. Rather prefer to look at the Arome or UKV now when looking at a short time frame.. the ECM precipitation charts are rather over the top. 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 Alderc 2.0 wednesday and Thursday looking mostly dire yeah. 

But by this point, are we surprised? Basically any properly settled, dry, sunny and warmer spells gets downgraded.

 

[SunnyG]

And even today, which could have been decent, it's windy. I got told off yesterday in the mod thread for saying that the settled spell wasn't gonna happen any time soon. It's just not gonna happen this spring and maybe not even into summer, so we better get used to it... Obviously we are all hoping it will, but reality is what it is.

[danm]

Bit confused by a couple of posts in here this morning. This week was always meant to be unsettled, a mix of sunshine, heavy showers, some longer spells of rain, and warmer. This weekend was never set in stone for dry, settled weather. We had a couple of ECM Op runs that showed that, but there was never cross model agreement. However, there has been a strong signal across the models for a little while now that NEXT week will see pressure building, and that is still the case this morning:

GFS:

 

ECM:

[SunnyG]

 Azazel July what year? Not 2024 surely lmao

 danm It's always next week isn't it.

[danm]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

It's just not gonna happen this spring and maybe not even into summer, so we better get used to it.

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

It's always next week isn't it.

Unless you were expecting some miraculous short term upgrades for the next few days, then yes. It was always meant to be next week. Fingers crossed it happens. 

[SunnyG]

 danm We'll just see who's right. Up until now, I have been, so I have evidence on my side. On yours, you have only hope and good luck with that 

[danm]

1 minute ago, SunnyG said:

evidence on my side

Tea leaves? I have no idea what the weather will be like this Summer, neither do you. 

[SussexSnowman]

A sight as rare as Hen's Teeth is the sun making an appearance without so much cloud trying to hide it. As for the rest of week which has really been the weather for good while, consigned to the bin! Yuk!

[Catbrainz]

 Summer8906 I recall August 2019 as being a very non descript month. It was a  drier and sunnier version of August 2023 for my area. Not a bad month at all it’s no July 2018 or August 2022 but not a July 2023 ether. It really seems your area suffers under SWlys.(SWlys here antent great ether unless it’s anticyclonic as heck) Out of curiosity how does your area fare under a straight westerly I’d guess slightly better given more land to your west. 

[Snowshine]

Looks like the cloud has already rolled in, and the forecast changed to light rain all afternoon. Not a good start to the week.

[Scorcher]

Lots of model uncertainty for this week- even only a few days out. Still lots of variation between runs from all the models for Wednesday and Thursday even.

So I certainly wouldn't be writing off the weekend now.

Only a few days ago the ensembles were showing below average 850 hPa temps for the forseeable- now the mean is above average throughout. So at least it's looking like it will be warming up.

 

Edited April 29 by Scorcher

[Northwest NI]

48 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

So at least it's looking like it will be warming up.

And we know what that frequently means…….

[stainesbloke]

 In Absence of True Seasons That forecast is already wrong Loads of cloud has bubbled up, and with that strong breeze, it doesn’t feel warm. 

 Summer8906

[CryoraptorA303]

 B87 Well, at least winter on both ends would be cold and snowy. Although having that summer in the same year would be a big problem, I agree. Terrible harvest, greatly delayed spring etc..

Has there been a year on record where spring never began and the flora didn't even bother for that year? I know 1816 is likely to fit in that category but any others in known history?

[B87]

 CryoraptorA303 Most plants would probably be killed.

The warmest months by mean...

Jan: 2007 (10.5/5.1c)

Feb: 2024 (12.2/6.0c)

Mar: 2017 (14.1/6.6c)

Apr: 2011 (19.7/8.6c)

May: 1992 (21.0/10.2c)

Jun: 1976 (25.5/13.7c)

Jul: 2006 (28.2/16.7c)

Aug: 2022 (27.0/15.9c)

Sep: 2023 (24.4/14.7c)

Oct: 2005 (17.8/11.3c)

Nov: 1994 (13.6/8.4c)

Dec: 2015 (13.7/8.9c)

Edited April 29 by B87

[midlandsun]

Another bright sunny morning, another day where the twatting cloud and horrible breeze has ruined it by midday. Absolute tripe.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

47 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

That forecast is already wrong Loads of cloud has bubbled up, and with that strong breeze, it doesn’t feel warm. 

Haha, well it was correct about 8-9am when I was en route to work.

As it standard, the clarity of the morning fades and cloud bubbles up as the day warms. 

It's definitely an improvement over the dross that's been dominant, but on the cool side of this time of year.