Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

[winterof79]

  @feb1991blizzardSome record breaking cold late Feb you said last night with some -10 flat liners where is this as i don't see any evidence 

[Dennis]

 

Edited January 26 by Dennis

[That ECM]

T240 I look at these each morning to see if there’s a way forward to cold. I’ll keep looking but it’s not great viewing at the moment but we live in hope.

Edited January 26 by That ECM

[Lukesluckybunch]

12 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T240 I look at these each morning to see if there’s a way forward to cold. I’ll keep looking but it’s not great viewing at the moment but we live in hope.

Yea awful output at the moment..but the longer term outlook is to hp to really take hold further into february..perhaps the models will start to pick the signal soon!

[Dennis]

the fun is just to start

im I'm disgusted by the 500hpa charts....

Edited January 26 by Dennis

[feb1991blizzard]

  @winterof79

It hasn't come into range yet, we need the MJO that little bit further (7/8) ish, anyone expecting E'ly's to pop out of nowhere in modelling were always likely to be wide of the mark, - very earliest 10th feb for start of transition, very latest 25th.

[LRD]

MOGREPS ensembles show some astonishing warmth for the start of Feb

May as well chase spring as chasing winter is a complete and utter waste of time! And 15Cs and 16Cs are surely possible this time next week. Incredible. I want cold and snow this time of year but, even so, it's going to be interesting to see what temps we will experience. It does look quite windy so that will take the edge off but if the sun breaks out anywhere in the east temps could rocket. Night time temps are going to be potentially record-breaking

Feb really is turning into a spring month (although I still suspect there will be some cold in the 2nd half of Feb) but I still didn't think the above was possible, so early in Feb, despite what's happening climate-wise

All those positive signs and this winter still looks like being another huge fail. It's been October or March-like conditions for most of the first 2 months

[jules216]

Its getting quite ridiculous how Scandi trough never managed this winter to correlate with anything meaningful down below. Its been on and of cold Up north with very little revenue down south. This is appearing again during this period for which some would say "hopefull switch to something colder" while Iam looking at Meteogram and its showing double digits here

In general i am now very confident that this winter will end up quite difficult to distinguish from past two. The odd week here and there of coolish weather and thats about it.

[Dennis]

suddenly 

3-5 febr

 

[ANYWEATHER]

There's no doubt the weather pattern will change ,the unseasonably warm weather sooner or later over Spain for instance will come to an abrupt end ,with dramatic flooding and cold as the current jet stream profile changes and delivers cold to the UK,  it's not about If but when!  Meanwhile ,the search for Winter cold continues.....

[Nick2373]

00z look at the scatter from the 05th from years of studying and learning this model that’s a pattern change coming up which way? Is the question 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[AO-]

Good Morning,

Well, there is not a lot to add to the dreadful output this morning and what has already been said. There still is a small chance here for more seasonal weather from the fifth onwards, but winter is far away atm. We have a choice between westerly and southwesterly winds. It seems like the Iberian high retrogresses towards home at the Azores, but that is all. 

[winterof79]

  @feb1991blizzard Cheers Feb didn't read back enough

[bluearmy]

@Dennis posted 
suddenly 

3-5 febr

dennis - that bar chart is based 24 Jan 00z gefs but seems to start from 26th ???

[LRD]

29 minutes ago, AO- said:

We have a choice between westerly and southwesterly winds.

Or, in other words, between a rock and a hard place

This is a ridiculously warm chart from UKMO

Less than a week away

[northwestsnow]

Sickening 00z runs.

What happened to a  Nino / eQbo back loaded  winter?  this one is getting worse the closer we get to Feb.

Yet again promising background drivers amount to nothing for Europe.

You don't have to be Nostradamus to predict masses of high latitude blocking come April...

Edited January 26 by northwestsnow

[mountain shadow]

  @northwestsnow I think the gurus aren't expecting any changes until mid February at least which is pretty much outside the model range.

Of course we can expect unknown unknown to topple the positive teleconnections, but that is par for the course.

[Djdazzle]

  @northwestsnow Northern blocking has always been more common in spring than winter.

Some people swear by the background signals - but as time goes on, I pay less and less attention to them because the only time they seem to be reliable is when they show zonal!

As the days lengthen, my mind now starts to wander towards spring. We're talking mid-February for any chance of cold, and by then the synoptics need to be that bit more special as the sun is strengthening.

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters from T192 onwards:

There is interest to develop an Atlantic ridge of some sorts from day 8, but the evolution thereafter is a bit of a mess.  I’m not seeing a clear signal for a Greenland high here, rather the possibility that some clearer signal might develop once the trend to a more amplified pattern gets underway.  Maybe a little soon for a response to the MJO.  But time is tight now, particularly for the south, as the period of interest is now mid February.  

Edited January 26 by Mike Poole

[johnholmes]

Upper air analysis 26 January 2024

One week on so another update; not done earlier as nothing was showing on any of the 3 charts to suggest anything even slightly different from our weather this past week.

NOAA 6-10 has slowly over the past week changed troughs/ridges, or at least, some aspects in the far west. In the UK area/Europe then the European ridging, more especially, the position of the +ve heights has shifted from way east to a more westerly point ( on the 6-10 it is now centred 50N 20W at 210 DM. This movement is not dissimilar to how it developed prior to the last cold spell! I’m not saying this will happen again simply stating facts. The 8-14 edges it a shade further west but, as is almost always the case, with a lower +ve height value.

ECMWF shows a general flow just north of west on its output (31/1-4/2) with a flattish upper ridge over central/eastern Europe being replaced by a flattish trough in much the same place. Its 850 temperature values eventually by day 5 the 0C lying from N Wales to the Thames estuary.

UK Met on their 3 day charts from T+144 30/1-1/2 a mainly westerly flow with an upper ridge finally settling just west of Portugal

So all 3 show a similar upper air pattern developing over the relevant periods of their forecast period.

As is often quoted on the model (forecast) thread, more charts are needed to see what is likely to transpire.

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG

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UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

2 hours ago, Dennis said:

suddenly 

3-5 febr

 

Doesn't really mean anything, just a function of the westerly moving Canadian high, a break from the Canada PV lobe for a time, perhaps more Euro ridge building so milder and drier but not much else.

[Lukesluckybunch]

A toppler scenario setting up at day 10 it looks like..doesn't look right upstream for anything more...

[Battleground Snow]

Finally a chart to chase.

Very frustrating times at the moment, got to hope for a flip of some kind in the 10-14 period for anything of note.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Corker inbound.

[LRD]

GFS doesn't have 850 temps as high as MOGREPS and this morning's UKMO run. But still time for, er, 'upgrades' if you can call it that

Hope we do get some kind of cold spell next month as, unscientific observation though this is, I always feel we pay for Feb warmth with crap March's and April's. A cold March I can just about live with but after the clocks go forward, it's warm, warm, warm all the way please (well, until late Sept)