Snow Watch Thread For Midlands & C Southern England

[toonarmy32]

I've got a terrible feeling as the front is going northwards, we're going to be that little bit too far the east and I think it'll clip us rather than smack us in the chops. Come on front, just nudge east a bit more!

so you think this is going to fall as rain instead of snow

cher

x

[WestMidlandsWeather]

bbc 24 have extended the snow risk across to east anglia now

Well, everyone must know something we dont. They must believe it will go East..quite abit to reach them! Im still confident about this whole thing, even more confident now, must be forecast to move Eastwards.

[Costa Del Fal]

Well, everyone must know something we dont. They must believe it will go East..quite abit to reach them! Im still confident about this whole thing, even more confident now, must be forecast to move Eastwards.

BBC Forecast shows the snow moving alot slower than earlier which is great!

[Michael Winston]

The temperature here in south Birmingham (Edgbaston / Selly Park) has dropped fron 5.4C to 1.1C in the last two hours. I was a little doubtful if conditions would be right for a wintry precipitation, but now I'm a lot more confident.

Regards,

Mike.

[toonarmy32]

i think i feel sick now someone please tell me will it or wont it snow

[pj cov]

BBC Forecast shows the snow moving alot slower than earlier which is great!

that must be it stalling,,,,which would be nice!!!

[WestMidlandsWeather]

i think i feel sick now someone please tell me will it or wont it snow

Ive been the Netweather pro ramper today, even when everyone was doom & gloom I said it would snow heavily from 4-5am until around midday, now it looks as if it could come earlier, Ill tell you now...it will snow heavily

[toonarmy32]

Ive been the Netweather pro ramper today, even when everyone was doom & gloom I said it would snow heavily from 4-5am until around midday, now it looks as if it could come earlier, Ill tell you now...it will snow heavily

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH i could kiss ya lol but I wont

<<<<<<<<<<<<<< temps are now 0.1 humidity 86%

cher

x

[Michael Winston]

i think i feel sick now someone please tell me will it or wont it snow

From the Met Office:

Heavy Snow 0100 Thu 5 1500 Thu 5 There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of the Midlands, the West Country and southern and eastern Wales during Thursday. An area of snow will move in from the south during the early hours of Thursday and will continue through the morning and into the afternoon. There will be accumulations of 2 to 5 cm of snow in general, with 5 to 10 cm likely in places and 20 to 30 cm possible over higher ground. This will cause disruption to travel across the region.

Issued at: 1047 Wed 4 Feb

Seems unambiguous enough!

Regards,

Mike.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

i think im excited all weather websites looking good for snow, seems to be coming in much earlier, bbc website have persistant snow most of the night and snow showers tomorrow, bbc interactive not so good ending it by 6am and rain into the south

still got some of mondays snow, some areas completely white with loads, 0.0oC now

[dvdfjojo]

so you think this is going to fall as rain instead of snow

cher

x

No, I think we'll definitely get snow, I just didn't feel we'd get as much of it as I've been hoping for.

Mind you, I've only been looking at the radar and it's slowly nudging north with little east movement so far. It looks as though that will change judging by all the agreeing forecasts so perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

On a positive note, my temp is -0.9 with a dewpoint of -2.6 so that's a great start to the evening. Just need to cross everything now Cher.

Jo

[WestMidlandsWeather]

OHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH i could kiss ya lol but I wont

<<<<<<<<<<<<<< temps are now 0.1 humidity 86%

cher

x

Lol, the forecasts look to be getting even better aswell, and just to really make you wet your pants lol, Met Office spokesperson on the radio said we should expect 15cm when we wake up with further snow throughout the day.

Taken a look at the 17:30 radar, doesnt seem promising though, anybody got a link to where I can see the predicted route for it? I want to know how this could possibly make its way this far East, although im still confident!

Edited February 4, 2009 by WestMidlandsWeather

[toonarmy32]

No, I think we'll definitely get snow, I just didn't feel we'd get as much of it as I've been hoping for.

Mind you, I've only been looking at the radar and it's slowly nudging north with little east movement so far. It looks as though that will change judging by all the agreeing forecasts so perhaps I'm being too pessimistic.

On a positive note, my temp is -0.9 with a dewpoint of -2.6 so that's a great start to the evening. Just need to cross everything now Cher.

Jo

Thanx jo I have everything crossed lol

cher

x

[stewfox]

i think i feel sick now someone please tell me will it or wont it snow

You greedy bugger you got loads up there already

Take a train 80 miles south we got hardly any left

[Essan]

Little we can do now but wait - 6 hours and counting

[toonarmy32]

Lol, the forecasts look to be getting even better aswell, and just to really make you wet your pants lol, Met Office spokesperson on the radio said we should expect 15cm when we wake up with further snow throughout the day.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< doing a snow jig wooohoooooooooo

cher

x

[da_bish]

Wish I could be as confident as you.

Snow always seems to skirt around Witney and Abingdon!

[kar999]

From the Met Office:

Heavy Snow 0100 Thu 5 1500 Thu 5 There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of the Midlands, the West Country and southern and eastern Wales during Thursday. An area of snow will move in from the south during the early hours of Thursday and will continue through the morning and into the afternoon. There will be accumulations of 2 to 5 cm of snow in general, with 5 to 10 cm likely in places and 20 to 30 cm possible over higher ground. This will cause disruption to travel across the region.

Issued at: 1047 Wed 4 Feb

Seems unambiguous enough!

Regards,

Mike.

Not sure when Met office change their weather warnings. That one on their website was issued at 10:47 and still gives the disruption risk as only 60%. Academically that's only 11% in favour of it being more likely to happen than not.

I'd like to see it moved into their 80% severe risk category before I'd lay odds down on it!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

am i right to be excited about saturday as well? this area all white on bbc beta, cheshire gap showers a possibility?

Edited February 4, 2009 by mark forster 630

[Costa Del Fal]

Not sure when Met office change their weather warnings. That one on their website was issued at 10:47 and still gives the disruption risk as only 60%. Academically that's only 11% in favour of it being more likely to happen than not.

I'd like to see it moved into their 80% severe risk category before I'd lay odds down on it!

Personally i think your worrying a bit much especially when we are slap bang in the middle of seeing possibly the most snow and heaviest!

[stewfox]

Current temps would suggest areas north of the M4

Too mild bournmouth etc and on the coast

0c at Luton

[Costa Del Fal]

Watch Central News now! Its currently about The Snow saying 10-20cm possible, Heaviest during rush hour and the greatest risk of Disruption for The West Midlands, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire etc.

They are also worrying about a lack of grit!

[high ground birmingham]

If anyone wants a rough guide to what this upcoming event will produce, it is very very similar to the Feb 8th-9th 2007 snow event which was pretty productive for the Midlands region.

I still think the east of Wales and the NW of Midlands is most at risk of the high snowfall amounts. I think Birmingham could do quite well too out of this since much of Birmingham lies on high ground.

As a rough guide (please don't take as gospel):

East Wales: 15-20cms of snow

Shropshire and Herefordshire: 20-25cms of snow

North Midlands (Derbyshire and Staffordshire etc): 20cms of snow

West Midlands county (Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Redditch, Coventry etc) : 10-15cms of snow

Worcestershire and Warwickshire: 10-12cms of snow

Leicestershire: 3-5cms of snow

Oxfordshire: 3-5cms of snow

There could be nearly a foot of snow on HIGH GROUND (above 350m) in Shropshire or the Welsh borders.

This is based on the GFS 12z mainly but also using UKMO 12z but not to the same extent because I think GFS comes out top in these situations.

Regards, hgb

Regards, hgb

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Watch Central News now! Its currently about The Snow saying 10-20cm possible, Heaviest during rush hour and the greatest risk of Disruption for The West Midlands, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire etc.

They are also worrying about a lack of grit!

Makes the whole thing sound that bit better when it causes havock

Its an almost certainty that it snows, just by how much, the way forecasts and radios are going on about it makes it sound worse than Mon/Tues.

[andy_leics22]

Watch Central News now! Its currently about The Snow saying 10-20cm possible, Heaviest during rush hour and the greatest risk of Disruption for The West Midlands, Staffordshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire etc.

They are also worrying about a lack of grit!

Hmmm no mention of Leicestershire?