Snow Watch Thread For Midlands & C Southern England

[toonarmy32]

South of a point a mile north of Evesham

so Essan do you think this will happen and will our areas be in the firing line im so sorry to ask i just dont know how to read the models yet i have the netweather subscription but i have tried and I end up getting myself confused

cher

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[andy_leics22]

Slight dusting overnight here from a few snow showers that came through, just checked on the radar loop and thats what it tells me

Thursday morning for the Midlands looks borderline still. BBC going for a period of heavy snow early on for the morning rush hour but still some uncertainty about how long it will stay as snow. I fear for my poor snowman because going by the GFS charts this morning it seems he might get a bit of rain on him on Thursday afternoon/evening! He might melt a fair bit from that, thats why i'm hoping it stays as snow for ages LOL.

[The Calm before the Storm]

Hmmmmm..........I'm thinking I may just be on the wrong side of marginal for my location, being 11 miles NE of Brum. More likely a snow to rain event for me

Still the possibility of it turning back to snow later as the cold air digs in, but only if there's any precipitation left!

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Hmmmmm..........I'm thinking I may just be on the wrong side of marginal for my location, being 11 miles NE of Brum. More likely a snow to rain event for me

Still the possibility of it turning back to snow later as the cold air digs in, but only if there's any precipitation left!

I take it you think the same for me in Walsall then

[conor123]

I look like being in slightly lighter precipitation but the combination of being in the colder upper air temps and being 160 meters above sea level should mean i dont have to worry about it turning to rain i hope.

[The Calm before the Storm]

I take it you think the same for me in Walsall then

You are marginally further West than me and having now viewed the 06z run we both could be in with a bit of a pasting. Everything is marginally further East which can only be good for us. GFS has temps at midday of 0c so a good chance of snow. All very knife-edge however and I still expect changes even at this late stage!

It'll end up being a nowcast, with the most accurate forecast being the head out of the window. Now that I already have no nails left to bite, what next??

[flyer]

Well folks if the gfs is to be believed then the low northern flank swings anticlockwise up around to an axis sw/ne direction before the cold northern air has had a chance to get to the south BUT if the low from Biscay slows which it appears to be doing and heads further east then its game on for the south with snow prospects.

I have noticed that the projected temps for the south are now down a couple of degrees for 6pm onwards so if upper air temps play ball then anywhere away from the south coast could get a hit

I'm old enough to remember 63 and all that jazz and the best prospects were always slow or stalled lows in the channel hoovering up the moisture and dumping it slightly inland.

Ever the optimist. If you stop being a kid as you get older then you may have gotten older than you realise !

Cheers

Flyer

[Eugene]

Not sure why those NE of birmingham are worried abut snow turning to rain, i think it's places much further south and east who need to worry about that, latest UKMO update is very promising for midlanders.

West Midlands:

60% Herefordshire

60% Shropshire

60% Staffordshire

60% Stoke-on-Trent

60% Telford + Wrekin

60% W Midlands

60% Warwickshire

60% Worcestershire

Heavy Snow 0100 Thu 5 1500 Thu 5

There is a high risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of the Midlands, the West Country and southern and eastern Wales during Thursday. An area of snow will move in from the south during the early hours of Thursday and will continue through the morning and into the afternoon. There will be accumulations of 2 to 5 cm of snow in general, with 5 to 10 cm likely in places and 20 to 30 cm possible over higher ground. This will cause disruption to travel across the region.

Issued at: 1047 Wed 4 Feb

[StormChaser]

This weather forcast is for the unlucky sods: If you live down south were I am don't get your hopes up for thursday.

Confidence level %90 for dissapointment I hope im wrong tho:)

Edited February 4, 2009 by StormChaser

[toonarmy32]

so im on snow watch tonight lol

cher

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[andy_leics22]

so im on snow watch tonight lol

cher

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Met Office reckon 5-10cm likely and 20-30cm over high ground in the Midlands... Now if you class as that high ground you will probably have a seizure at getting so much snow

The snow will probably start about 4am for Brum though so it may be best to go bed 11-12 and set your alarm for 4am.

[Serendipity]

Pah, I think I'm just too far south - we've not hardly seen anything this week unfortunately although my work took me to Nuneaton where there was significantly more.

I SO want my children to see some decent snow!

[Frank Trough]

This weather forcast is for the unlucky sods: If you live down south were I am don't get your hopes up for thursday.

Confidence level %90 for dissapointment I hope im wrong tho:)

i fear you won't be. it always looked to be very marginal for us and i'm afraid i think we've now slipped over the edge. It'll be rain for us (possibly after a little wet snow to start).

seems incredible to say it but this has been a bit of a non event for my location! 3 cm snow on monday which had melted by 4pm. A few showers yesterday during the day (which were sleety) and then even last night Wantage (about 4 miles west of here) got a couple of cms and yet nothing in Drayton.

Quite simply, this has been an enormous let down! fair play to everyone else though - it's my own fault for living here!

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Not sure why those NE of birmingham are worried abut snow turning to rain, i think it's places much further south and east who need to worry about that, latest UKMO update is very promising for midlanders. :ph34r:

I agree, im North Birmingham, it wont rain here..only the coasts.

[high ground birmingham]

I think the place to be tonight and tomorrow is NW Midlands AND East Wales...these places look likely to get a pasting with upto a foot of snow in parts. Favoured locations in my opinion include Welshpool, Oswestry, Shrewsbury, Telford, Stafford, Whitchurch, Crewe and Stoke on Trent.

Locations further South and East will get snow but not as much and conditions here may turn far more marginal with things turning somewhat sleety. I would say that there will be LITTLE SNOW to write home about at this stage E of a line running through Oxford, Leicester, Nottingham and Mansfield AND S of a line running through Gloucester, Oxford and Luton although Luton will be too far east anyway.

However, things could easily change with a 30-35 mile shift which is easily possible in the models at this stage which could place much of the East Midlands at risk.

Regards, hgb

[WestMidlandsWeather]

I think the place to be tonight and tomorrow is NW Midlands AND East Wales...these places look likely to get a pasting with upto a foot of snow in parts. Favoured locations in my opinion include Welshpool, Oswestry, Shrewsbury, Telford, Stafford, Whitchurch, Crewe and Stoke on Trent.

Locations further South and East will get snow but not as much and conditions here may turn far more marginal with things turning somewhat sleety. I would say that there will be LITTLE SNOW to write home about at this stage E of a line running through Oxford, Leicester, Nottingham and Mansfield AND S of a line running through Gloucester, Oxford and Luton although Luton will be too far east anyway.

However, things could easily change with a 30-35 mile shift which is easily possible in the models at this stage which could place much of the East Midlands at risk.

Regards, hgb

Sounds good for me then............I think!

[Cornflake Girl]

Fingers crossed for tomorrow morning. Though it will probably all melt within a few hours of falling!

[SalopWatcher]

I think the place to be tonight and tomorrow is NW Midlands AND East Wales...these places look likely to get a pasting with upto a foot of snow in parts. Favoured locations in my opinion include Welshpool, Oswestry, Shrewsbury, Telford, Stafford, Whitchurch, Crewe and Stoke on Trent.

Locations further South and East will get snow but not as much and conditions here may turn far more marginal with things turning somewhat sleety. I would say that there will be LITTLE SNOW to write home about at this stage E of a line running through Oxford, Leicester, Nottingham and Mansfield AND S of a line running through Gloucester, Oxford and Luton although Luton will be too far east anyway.

However, things could easily change with a 30-35 mile shift which is easily possible in the models at this stage which could place much of the East Midlands at risk.

Regards, hgb

If there is a foot of snow here I will be so happy!

I dont know you but I now preclaim you to be an expert and take everything above as gospal :ph34r:

It really is looking good for the next couple of days...

[high ground birmingham]

If there is a foot of snow here I will be so happy!

I dont know you but I now preclaim you to be an expert and take everything above as gospal :ph34r:

It really is looking good for the next couple of days...

Lol but im not an expert...far from it. I was just lookng at the 850s, dew points, ground temps, wet bulbs etc. Bare in mind, prediction for a foot of snow is likely to be on high ground. If you are on low ground, expect 10-15cms maybe. Also, bare in mind that even at this there are slight shifts in the models so things could change.

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Whens this ment to hit, ive heard all sorts of times branded around..This afternoon (No chance!!)

Tonight and ive heard around 5am tomorrow morning??

[Snowyowl9]

Latest snow run from GFS.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/30_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC/36_30.gif

Cloud has just cleared here so the sun will start some thawing 1.8c only got down -0.8c last night and it was overcast.

[Fozfoster]

If there is a foot of snow here I will be so happy!

I dont know you but I now preclaim you to be an expert and take everything above as gospal

It really is looking good for the next couple of days...

can not catch my breath, going to just miss out AGAIN.

[WestMidlandsWeather]

Forecasts look promising, my guess is itll hit at around 4-5am with prolonged heavy snow until 8am.

Then heavy showers until about 12? Then itll be goodbye snow.. hello sunshine!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

can not catch my breath, going to just miss out AGAIN. :lol:

what are you on about mate tour not goin to miss out at all , watch the lates weather and we will do very wel, obviously the further north or higher you are will do better but we will do very well mate im confident , its ones useing there personal opinions on hear that leads to doubt im afraid, 5 years ago before this net buisness was about we would be extatic after watching the weather

[toonarmy32]

Met Office reckon 5-10cm likely and 20-30cm over high ground in the Midlands... Now if you class as that high ground you will probably have a seizure at getting so much snow :lol:

The snow will probably start about 4am for Brum though so it may be best to go bed 11-12 and set your alarm for 4am.

WOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO :lol: thats it alarm set for 3 oclock just incase lmao

thanks andy

cher

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