Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[Bolton67]

Light rain here now...if this carries on, it would take till MAY to shift the amount we have :lol:

Edited February 8, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[Nick L]

This satellite picture could be the kiss of death for snow in the Midlands.

http://www.sat24.com/

The channel low is now approaching the West of Ireland but look how far North it is! If it continues like that then it will be hitting Northern England easily. That low is worryingly North at the moment.

Andy I think you need to have a break for the night and see the situation in the morning, otherwise you are going to worry yourself to death! BBC still not backing down. Let's just wait and see how it pans out :lol:

[Costa Del Fal]

If you look at fax the main low is situated around 45n 20w at18hrs.That feature further North nr Ireland is not it Andy.

I think you best chill a little Andy our Low will not be in the SW approaches for another 12hrs. yet.

Shall i get Nick S to send some Prozac to you? :lol:

I was begining to think that wasnt it myself asnd it doesnt look very 'Low' like either! :lol:

Edited February 8, 2009 by Blizzards

[Albion Snowman]

Its begin to turn quite foggy here now!

Thats not normally a good sign if you have snow cover becase it means warmer air is moving in! Hope im wrong!

[andy_leics22]

If you look at fax the main low is situated around 45n 20w at18hrs.That feature further North nr Ireland is not it Andy.

I think you best chill a little Andy our Low will not be in the SW approaches for another 12hrs. yet.

Shall i get Nick S to send some Prozac to you? :lol:

Haha :lol: Whatever it is it's got a lot of cloud on it! :lol:

[Yeti]

18z rolling out and precip looks about 40 miles further N than on the 12z so far -

[andy_leics22]

Lmao !!!

I can guarantee you won't be able to resist a peek at the 18z.

18z rolling out now... Oh go on then i'll take a look

[Bolton67]

Thats not normally a good sign if you have snow cover becase it means warmer air is moving in! Hope im wrong!

Blizzard will have nowt left by the morning

Edited February 8, 2009 by Lancs_Northants

[MKN]

50miles further north this run. byebye snow lol

having said that the isobars are closer together so dont effect as far north as before. i had the 12z open so im comparing chart to chart lol

Edited February 8, 2009 by SnowTornado

[kold weather]

There is no reason for the been to backtrack, events seem fairly well agreed upon now. Models also do not suggest rain like some think for the midlands as there is a decent cold pool at the surface and note the been show snow after the eveing hours have set in and cooling happens. We shall have to nowcast now, models not worth much now.

Edited February 8, 2009 by kold weather

[dogs32]

can someone plz explain to me whch is baffling me....Today we had more rain than snow apart from the hills.......temp was around 2.9

So why tomorrow am I going to get snow when the temp if Im correct are going to be around 5c

whats the difference

[FENDER.]

18z rolling out and precip looks about 40 miles further N than on the 12z so far -

That would put the northen tip up to about Stoke/Crewe ??

[Nick L]

The precipitation has moved further north yes, but over the Midlands it is very, very heavy, and most importantly, the mild sector has barely budged at all.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

maybe they think if they tell people in the morning that overnight the low pressure has moved further north than originally thought then people might think o right fair enough, whereas if they change from a forecast issued just hours before they will look stupid

Thats not likely, they dont play mind games they give the forecast, based on many things, proberbly much more to it than what we no, im sure if they thought it was just wind and rain rather than snow then they would dwell more on the wind and heavy rain and continue with the winter storm theme, they would just slowly swich over the emphasis. remeber they no much more than we do , so im very exited about it all.

[andy_leics22]

The precipitation has moved further north yes, but over the Midlands it is very, very heavy, and most importantly, the mild sector has barely budged at all.

That 0c 850 air looks periliously close to the Midlands though

[conor123]

Charts are being misread somewhat.

The precipitation is a larger area on the 18z but the mild sector has barely changed, in fact looking up close there more -4 850pHa around at Midnight tommorow night!

However the 1c dewpoint doesnt fill me with hope, though i assume thats for sea level so being 160 meters higher should cross of 1-2c.

[Bolton67]

50miles further north this run. byebye snow lol

Yep, instead of going to the shop with snow shoes on, I'll be going to the shop in a canoe.

[MKN]

If the bbc were right with there positioning of snow then the slight changes in this run shouldnt be a problem, if they were out before then we will probs miss out this time

[azores92]

The precipitation has moved further north yes, but over the Midlands it is very, very heavy, and most importantly, the mild sector has barely budged at all.

all i think we want to see is weather the curse of the even larger teapot can be broken. if this mild sector can stay at bay, and if a truly severe blizzard is possible.

[Nick L]

That 0c 850 air looks periliously close to the Midlands though

I am trusting the professionals on Net Weather, Met Office and the BBC on this - surely there must be other factors in this. But if it does fall as snow, there is going to be a hell of a lot of it.

[MKN]

That 0c 850 air looks periliously close to the Midlands though

if you have the net weather extra charts you can see a bit more clearly, we stay between -2 and -3 throughout. 50miles is the difference between 850s of 0 and -4 though

Edited February 8, 2009 by SnowTornado

[FENDER.]

Charts are being misread somewhat.

The precipitation is a larger area on the 18z but the mild sector has barely changed, in fact looking up close there more -4 850pHa around at Midnight tommorow night!

However the 1c dewpoint doesnt fill me with hope, though i assume thats for sea level so being 160 meters higher should cross of 1-2c.

Thats the strength of the West Midlands, pretty much eveywhere is 500 ft asl. Should drop forcast temps by about 1.5c

[Supercell]

There is no reason for the been to backtrack, events seem fairly well agreed upon now. Models also do not suggest rain like some think for the midlands as there is a decent cold pool at the surface and note the been show snow after the eveing hours have set in and cooling happens. We shall have to nowcast now, models not worth much now.

Absolutely Kold. A very key cold pool that would not be there had the past week been relatively mild. It is there in place and it allowing marginal events to produce the snow and not the let-downs of past.

[Bolton67]

I am trusting the professionals on Net Weather, Met Office and the BBC on this - surely there must be other factors in this. But if it does fall as snow, there is going to be a hell of a lot of it.

Looking at the last charts, it will fall as RAIN.

Game over i'm afraid.

[andy_leics22]

I am trusting the professionals on Net Weather, Met Office and the BBC on this - surely there must be other factors in this. But if it does fall as snow, there is going to be a hell of a lot of it.

I hope they are right too, I would go ballistic if that level of snow fell I'd be jumping out my bedroom window into it 20cm+ would make a nice soft landing.