Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[Nick L]

So you really think you will receive almost 20cm of snow ?

other than the BBC :lol: PLEASE show me your source....???????????

Hot off the 18z GFS:

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/30_30.gif

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_18_UTC/36_30.gif

I won't get 20cm of snow no, the higher ground in the Midlands will get that. But I am certainly hoping to get at least 2 to 4 inches.

Edited February 8, 2009 by nick2702

[NorthantsSnow]

What people don't realise though is that the BBC have got a big snow event wrong like this not that long ago. Dec 4th 2008, Snow expected as far South as Oxford, this forecast was issued 6 hours before the event happened and it didn't start as snow ANYWHERE in the Midlands let alone as far South as Oxford!

Why are you so anti-BBC? They did make a mistake on that occasion but I am sure it was more than 6 hours before the event and they DID revise it in time for later forecasts.

But for me. BBC= UKMO + human input > GFS any day of the week. They make mistakes, because they are human. But mostly, 99% of the time, they are absolutely on the money.

[MKN]

What people don't realise though is that the BBC have got a big snow event wrong like this not that long ago. Dec 4th 2008, Snow expected as far South as Oxford, this forecast was issued 6 hours before the event happened and it didn't start as snow ANYWHERE in the Midlands let alone as far South as Oxford!

I saved a screenshot from that forecast to show how wrong they were with 6 hours to go...

Who's to say it won't happen again? The GFS that time said NO for snow in the Midlands, BBC said YES, GFS won.

that was the night we stayed up to see heavy rain lol. hopefully this time we wont have to, if its not snow by 10 its not gonna be. temps today dropped from 1.5c to 0 in an hour between 5 and 6 hopefully will drop as fast tomoz. i think the rain to start with will completely wash away the snow we have here now though, so will be starting over again.

[weather_it_will]

So you really think you will receive almost 20cm of snow ?

other than the BBC :lol: PLEASE show me your source....???????????

The met office / BBC, has been very accurate upto now.

People quoting the models in this thread have been very wrong for last weeks snow. :lol:

All I can say is we all look out the window tomorrow evening, as that will be the most acccurate forecast.

[andy_leics22]

Oh Good God Man, cheer up - tomorrow's not here yet and you've been surprised over and over again this year - long may that pattern of weather continue. The GFS at 18z is not God - the time for having a whinge is when you look out of your window come 10pm tomorrow night and you've got torrential rain, not before! Put your positive socks on and get some kip my boy! :lol:

I know, i'm sorry for being so negative like this I just can't accept the BBC's current forecast though, it looks wrong to me and I can't help but keep saying it lol. I know those weather forecasters have more experience and knowledge than me but on the 4th of Dec snow event they said snow for Wales, West Midlands, East Midlands and I said there was no chance of that. In the end my forecast of no chance was true and their forecast of heavy snow was wrong, the only places that saw heavy snow from that was Yorkshire, everywhere South of Yorkshire saw sleet or rain, look how wrong that forecast turned out to be, their snow line was 150 miles too far South. That is quite a big margin with 6 hours to go before the event lets be honest :lol:

[Albion Snowman]

I suspect what will happen is it'll start as light rain for the midlands, then the combo of heavier precip and also nightine cooling will turn the precip to snow. Remember the gfs is forecasting snow but like the ukmo not really till the eveing hours.

That is exactly how i think things will pan out as well kold.

Light/ moderate rain but as soon as it starts to get dark and the heavier PPN comes along it will readily turn to snow.

[andy_leics22]

Why are you so anti-BBC? They did make a mistake on that occasion but I am sure it was more than 6 hours before the event and they DID revise it in time for later forecasts.

But for me. BBC= UKMO + human input > GFS any day of the week. They make mistakes, because they are human. But mostly, 99% of the time, they are absolutely on the money.

I'm not mate, I have said lots of times in the model dicussion thread that I respect the BBC and I think they have forecasters who are more knowledgable than me so I have no case against them. I'm just stating what I think will happen though, if it's wrong then i'm a crap forecaster, if it's right then I hope a few people will realise that I wasn't just chatting BS from the start.

My forecast is GFS, UKMO and ECM. Thats 3 major models that i'm basing my forecast on, the BBC and Met-Office only look at the UKMO as far as I know.

[Bolton67]

All I can say is we all look out the window tomorrow evening, as that will be the most acccurate forecast. :lol:

^^^ the best post on this thread.

Agree 100% yet ,i'm still going for heavy rain.

[Yeti]

Lol. Funny how on the Yorkshire thread everyone is saying that the BBC are poor therefore must be wrong, but on here it's the opposite!

Andy - GFS 18z DOES show snow for most Midlanders tomorrow although in the E it gets very marginal near that 0c isotherm

Extent has moved N but the warmer air hasn't, so no real changes for this area on the 18z.

However at times it will be sleety, particularly earlier and in the middle.

[weather_it_will]

temps today dropped from 1.5c to 0 in an hour between 5 and 6

They dropped from 4.5 to 1°C in an hour when I was in Banbury earlier this evening, and it was always snowing even at 4.5°C

Would not be surprised if same thing happens tomorrow.

Am back in Rugby now as usual for the week, and am hoping for lots of snow tomorrow night, after I have got home from work in Solihull. :lol:

[MKN]

bbc said snow storm so something like that?? i doubt it lol

[A.J]

One factor that seems to have been forgotton (apart from a mention by acouple of posters) is the wind thats been forecasted...Whether or not its rain/sleet/snow/the cat, the dog, or a kitchen sink, its going to be a wild night with strong to gale force north easterlies/easterlies which will, regardless of whether its rain or snow, make driving conditions hazardous during the overnight period and early tuesday morning, so take care out there on the roads!

[kold weather]

Andy, the dec 4th setup was totally different to that one in terms of synoptic evolution. My only slight worry would be if the precip was lighter than progged but all models agree on this front being potent.

[andy_leics22]

Andy, the dec 4th setup was totally different to that one in terms of synoptic evolution. My only slight worry would be if the precip was lighter than progged but all models agree on this front being potent.

Ok mate, I appreciate your input :lol: I'm going to let this lie now and just come back tomorrow morning when hopefully things will be clear.

[MKN]

Ok mate, I appreciate your input :lol: I'm going to let this lie now and just come back tomorrow morning when hopefully things will be clear.

They wont be clear til we see whats falling out the sky

[Potent Gust]

Ok mate, I appreciate your input :lol: I'm going to let this lie now and just come back tomorrow morning when hopefully things will be clear.

Hopefully the snow will be as good as the Leauge 1 table is currently for Leicester City! If it is we will get 20cm's easy!

Edited February 8, 2009 by Potent Gust

[andy_leics22]

Hopefully the snow will be as good as the Leauge 1 table is currently for Leicester City! If it is we will get 20cm's easy!

Loving it

[Yeti]

UKMO 18z is out and the low is even further N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020818/slp5.png

Meto and Beeb to change forecasts tomorrow probably.

[Potent Gust]

My word just a slight change of subject! According to the met office site it is -14.6 in Loch Glascarnoch! Coldest night of the winter?

[Yeti]

My word just a slight change of subject! According to the met office site it is -14.6 in Loch Glascarnoch! Coldest night of the winter?

Not quite, Aviemore got down to -18 around new year I think.

[Potent Gust]

Not quite, Aviemore got down to -18 around new year I think.

Perhaps it could get lower as the night goes on?

[cyclonic happiness]

My word just a slight change of subject! According to the met office site it is -14.6 in Loch Glascarnoch! Coldest night of the winter?

bloomin shavenknackers was forecasting between -10c and -14c for the midlands yesterday and it got down to -1c here!

[Yeti]

Perhaps it could get lower as the night goes on?

Sorry yes, thought you meant last night

-20 possible if skies stay clear.

[Potent Gust]

Sorry yes, thought you meant last night

-20 possible if skies stay clear.

Hope so! Would be good for somewhere to break the -20 mark!

[MKN]

UKMO 18z is out and the low is even further N

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ukm/2009020818/slp5.png

Meto and Beeb to change forecasts tomorrow probably.

that is the chart they used to show the air pressure on the 10oclock forecast im certain of it as i thought then they had it slightly further north than the models, and that appears to be exactly the same as what they showed, so they must have made the forecast already using that data.