Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[cyclonic happiness]

The overnight 00z UKMO run is going to be the biggest run EVER. If it moves the low about 50 miles further South it would take the chances of snow for the Midlands up a notch. If it stays the same or moves it 50 miles North then the Midlands may well just get rain, so so close this is.

that's true, hope we get it, but as i said before if we don't, there look to be plenty of chances over the next couple of weeks as the outlook is still cold

[dvdfjojo]

Jeez, far too much of this going on in here

and that's just the guys

We have seen snow when the models have said just 15/20% time and time again over the past week - we've always just been the right side of marginal. Hell, I've seen snow at 5 degrees this evening - barmy!

The 850s may be enough to kill this one off but with easterly/north-easterly winds to cool things down, the precipitation rate may well bring the temps down enough for us to have some real serious snow - let's save the caravanin' til Tuesday morning for chrissakes. Having been through the last week, I wouldn't bet against anything. I've still got snow on the ground after a day of well above freezing temps.

Edited February 8, 2009 by dvdfjojo

[weather_it_will]

The overnight 00z UKMO run is going to be the biggest run EVER. If it moves the low about 50 miles further South it would take the chances of snow for the Midlands up a notch. If it stays the same or moves it 50 miles North then the Midlands may well just get rain, so so close this is.

I would just throw the models in the bin if I were you.

[snowhope]

Did the weather mention snow for the South Midlands as well? i.e South Worcester

[MKN]

So theres no arguments over when it turns to snow... although i think these are rough guesses from the bbc/met office

[cyclonic happiness]

Good God !!!

I'm not throwing my toys out of the pram, why should i? since Monday northamptonshire had had nearly 16 inches of snow fall, so is that throwing my toys out of the pram?

like i said before, you are looking for the '' snow storm of the century'' which has now been downgraded for the midlands.

sorry to upset you, but you will be very disappointed

To be honest, it wouldn't be difficult to have a "snowstorm of the century" seeing as the century is only 8 and a bit years old

We'll just have to wait, please don't be so negative, people can make up their own minds up tomorrow evening when whatever falls from he sky falls

[Potent Gust]

Jeez, far too much of this going on in here

and that's just the guys

We have seen snow when the models have said just 15/20% time and time again over the past week - we've always just been the right side of marginal. Hell, I've seen snow at 5 degrees this evening - barmy!

The 850s may be enough to kill this one off but with easterly/north-easterly winds to cool things down, the precipitation rate may well bring the temps down enough for us to have some real serious snow - let's save the caravanin' til Tuesday morning for chrissakes. Having been through the last week, I wouldn't bet against anything. I've still got snow on the ground after a day of well above freezing temps.

LOL! It might get even worse tomorrow evening!

[weather_it_will]

you are looking for the '' snow storm of the century'' which has now been downgraded for the midlands.

What downgrade?

I don't call 8 inches of snow for the Midlands a downgrade.

[Albion Snowman]

When Jay Wynne stopped the graphics at 3pm tomorrow, the PPn line was just south of Bham, and when the graphics resumed it showed the rain progressing forwards and then turning to snow over a large portion of England and Wales.

For me personally, the LP has come at a good time becuase the day is over and the evening comes bringing with it cooler temps and therefore a higher chance of snow.

[MKN]

The overnight 00z UKMO run is going to be the biggest run EVER. If it moves the low about 50 miles further South it would take the chances of snow for the Midlands up a notch. If it stays the same or moves it 50 miles North then the Midlands may well just get rain, so so close this is.

well the bbc actually seemed to have the low further north than the 18z for that forecast if you looked right at the start. not by much but, this is so close these little changes will mean a big difference for some of us tomorow.

[Potent Gust]

So theres no arguments over when it turns to snow... although i think these are rough guesses from the bbc/met office

To be fair the main band of snow does look like it will arrive by 10pm if the BBC is to be belived.

[kold weather]

Andy, if the low stays where it's progged the midlands will still get mainly snow away from far eastern parts of the region, the only difference the low being further south would make is another hour or two of snow.

[andy_leics22]

So theres no arguments over when it turns to snow... although i think these are rough guesses from the bbc/met office

So thats 4 hours of heavy rain for us till the snow starts.. My snowmans DEAD

[MidlandsSean]

I must say about the BBC are usually pretty good for predicting snow/rain events. By this I mean, if any precipitation will be rain or not. It seems that its just the track of the precipitation they have bigger issues with. This is just the perception I get from it and I am not saying its definate.

However I do personally feel tomorrow will be heavy rain. But we all know how things can change, we know how models can change. I just feel that tomorrow has the potential and it could happen. I'd love to know what the BBC/Meto have that we can't see though!

[Nick L]

What downgrade?

I don't call 8 inches of snow for the Midlands a downgrade. :lol: :lol: :lol:

I know, I know. Some comments this evening are quite bizarre.

[lesta_snow]

i think it will snow just as the suns going down because of the drop in temps :lol:

but thats just my view on things doesn't mean im correct because i couldnt

forecast to save my life but thats what happened today and the floor was generally

wet and as soon as the sun went down we was given a nice 2 hours of heavyish snow

which left 3cm :lol: and snow on the pavement and in garden is around 7cm :lol:

[andy_leics22]

What people don't realise though is that the BBC have got a big snow event wrong like this not that long ago. Dec 4th 2008, Snow expected as far South as Oxford, this forecast was issued 6 hours before the event happened and it didn't start as snow ANYWHERE in the Midlands let alone as far South as Oxford!

I saved a screenshot from that forecast to show how wrong they were with 6 hours to go...

Who's to say it won't happen again? The GFS that time said NO for snow in the Midlands, BBC said YES, GFS won.

[camperstron]

Looking at the satellite images over the course of today shows that it's a beast of a thing that's coming in!! However this pans out it's going to be very interesting.

[cyclonic happiness]

So thats 4 hours of heavy rain for us till the snow starts.. My snowmans DEAD :lol:

there you go matey, he'll be fine :lol:

[Bolton67]

I know, I know. Some comments this evening are quite bizarre.

So you really think you will receive almost 20cm of snow ?

other than the BBC :lol: PLEASE show me your source....???????????

[stewfox]

I have to agree the waiting and debate is great fun! Let's just hope we are all happy tomorrow night!

My birthday tomorrow so I think it will deliver like it did in 1986 on my 21st :lol:

[Potent Gust]

So you really think you will receive almost 20cm of snow ?

other than the BBC :lol: PLEASE show me your source....???????????

Nick didn't say he would get 20cm of snow!

[dvdfjojo]

So thats 4 hours of heavy rain for us till the snow starts.. My snowmans DEAD :lol:

Oh Good God Man, cheer up - tomorrow's not here yet and you've been surprised over and over again this year - long may that pattern of weather continue. The GFS at 18z is not God - the time for having a whinge is when you look out of your window come 10pm tomorrow night and you've got torrential rain, not before! Put your positive socks on and get some kip my boy! :lol:

[kold weather]

I suspect what will happen is it'll start as light rain for the midlands, then the combo of heavier precip and also nightine cooling will turn the precip to snow. Remember the gfs is forecasting snow but like the ukmo not really till the eveing hours.

[Bolton67]

What people don't realise though is that the BBC have got a big snow event wrong like this not that long ago. Dec 4th 2008, Snow expected as far South as Oxford, this forecast was issued 6 hours before the event happened and it didn't start as snow ANYWHERE in the Midlands let alone as far South as Oxford!

I saved a screenshot from that forecast to show how wrong they were with 6 hours to go...

Who's to say it won't happen again? The GFS that time said NO for snow in the Midlands, BBC said YES, GFS won.

Andy, i've wised up now. lots are going to be crying in their cornflakes soon.