Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[MKN]

dont worry lancs saturday could see 10cms of snow :o

[The Calm before the Storm]

I'm reasonably confident that I'll see a good spell of snow from this but I'm hoping that I don't get too much rain beforehand. My location could be quite good in this kind of setup. According to the 06z GFS by 6.00pm the precipitation should be falling as snow. Fingers crossed! The Peak District could get a pasting from this as well.

Got a nice covering of snow yesterday evening which gives me confidence that this will be just the right side of marginal.

[PurpleFizz]

drizzle here at the moment! Im looking forward to this evenings snow :o We are definately in for it! And if its heavy and lasts a long time it will stick Maybe i can build another snowman! Wooo! Im optimistic

[len]

Latest UKMO has edged the low a little further south and the mild sector is less extensive.

That is EXCELLENT news for this region later tonight.

Are you sure it has edged South???

Compare the latest 6am (Colour pic) with their 00hours midday chart (Attachment)The trajectory would seem right?

Have you allowed for the 6 hours difference?

Sorry! It's taken ages to upload these files

Len

Doc9.doc

Edited February 9, 2009 by len

[MKN]

drizzle here at the moment! Im looking forward to this evenings snow :ph34r: We are definately in for it! And if its heavy and lasts a long time it will stick :ph34r: Maybe i can build another snowman! Wooo! Im optimistic

If it turns to snow by 6pm were in for about 10cms id guess at, with the chance of drifting snow which would make things fun, my personal opinion is it will turn to snow around 11ish snow til about 3am then clear away, leaving 2-5cms as the bbc have said.

http://www.dartcom.co.uk/index.php?pageID=7

if you want to see a rapid thaw in progress.. ^^

UK regions: East of England

North West England

Wales

Yorkshire & Humber

East Midlands

Heavy Snow Tue 10 Feb

There is a moderate risk of a severe weather event affecting parts of England and Wales on Tuesday. A band of rain will turn to sleet and snow in places as it moves eastwards. There is the potential for around 5 to 10cm of snow, especially over hills.

Issued at: 1127 Mon 9 Feb

[andy_leics22]

Well in my opinion the BBC DID backtrack. During yesterday afternoon they were showing a big swathe of snow all the way from Gloucester, all over the Midlands and so on for about 5-6pm onwards. Then on the 10:30 forecast they held the snow off till about 10-11pm for the Midlands. So thats a good 6-8 hours of rain before it's supposed to turn to snow, crap event.

All that precip is going to be wasted with rain, by the time it turns to snow the precip will probably not be as heavy and it will be moving away so I doubt it will be that prolonged. It's just going to be back edge snow, it's no great shakes, it's no 20cm+ of snow for anywhere below 300m and the best that people in the Midlands that are on low ground is about an inch or 2, it's hardly a winter storm with blizzards.

So I think my forecast yesterday wasn't too bad, the BBC defanitly backtracked last night and look at this mild sector was 1am tonight on the UKMO charts... This is when the rain is supposed to have turned to snow, highly unlikely!

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U24-7.GIF?09-06

I think the rain will turn to snow about 3am and then by that time the precip will be on it's way out with only a few hours left in it.

[MKN]

Well in my opinion the BBC DID backtrack. During yesterday afternoon they were showing a big swathe of snow all the way from Gloucester, all over the Midlands and so on for about 5-6pm onwards. Then on the 10:30 forecast they held the snow off till about 10-11pm for the Midlands. So thats a good 6-8 hours of rain before it's supposed to turn to snow, crap event.

All that precip is going to be wasted with rain, by the time it turns to snow the precip will probably not be as heavy and it will be moving away so I doubt it will be that prolonged. It's just going to be back edge snow, it's no great shakes, it's no 20cm+ of snow for anywhere below 300m and the best that people in the Midlands that are on low ground is about an inch or 2, it's hardly a winter storm with blizzards.

So I think my forecast yesterday wasn't too bad, the BBC defanitly backtracked last night and look at this mild sector was 1am tonight on the UKMO charts... This is when the rain is supposed to have turned to snow, highly unlikely!

http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U24-7.GIF?09-06

I think the rain will turn to snow about 3am and then by that time the precip will be on it's way out with only a few hours left in it.

youve not seen the bbc forecasts today then andy?? upgrades for definate, like you said yesterday they said turning to snow about 10pm, now its between 4-6 depending where abouts you are in the areas expected to get snow.

[chin86]

The latest ukmo 48hrs model has edged the low slightly further south compared to the 00hrs run and the mild sector is also a bit smaller. That should bring the snow line further south, I would say its looks good for the West Midlands

cheers mate... i hope so we will see some snow later tonight....

[andy_leics22]

Latest UKMO has edged the low a little further south and the mild sector is less extensive.

That is EXCELLENT news for this region later tonight.

Afraid not, check out the chart I posted, that mild sector SUCKS.

youve not seen the bbc forecasts today then andy?? upgrades for definate, like you said yesterday they said turning to snow about 10pm, now its between 4-6 depending where abouts you are in the areas expected to get snow.

4-6pm?? So how come they are predicting 5-10cm of snow from that? If it started snowing here at 4-6pm and lasted for a good 6 hours then we would be talking 20cm or so, I really don't think this will be a significant event unless you live about 300m ASL in the Midlands.

Edited February 9, 2009 by andy_leics22

[len]

Are you sure it has edged South???

Compare the latest 6am (Colour pic) with their 00hours midday chart (Attachment)The trajectory would seem right?

Have you allowed for the 6 hours difference?

Sorry! It's taken ages to upload these files

Len

I am quoting my own post here to see if anyone that says the LP has shifted South is going to respond.

Can someone who said this demonstrate it please?

Thanks

Len

[MKN]

Afraid not, check out the chart I posted, that mild sector SUCKS.

4-6pm?? So how come they are predicting 5-10cm of snow from that? If it started snowing here at 4-6pm and lasted for a good 6 hours then we would be talking 20cm or so, I really don't think this will be a significant event unless you live about 300m ASL in the Midlands.

5-10cms with 15cms in some areas on the 12oclock forecast. watch the forecast at 130 see what they have to say.

[len]

I'm also beginning to be sceptical of the "Rain and Snow" report at Brize Norton.

Nowhere else around it, or in the whole country is reporting any snow as far as I can see???

Len

[andy_leics22]

5-10cms with 15cms in some areas on the 12oclock forecast. watch the forecast at 130 see what they have to say.

Ok we'll see then

[GoKart Mozart]

Hi folks

3cm fell in yesterday's snow at Keele. We continue to be underwhelmed by the last week's snow. This is likely to continue it seems...

Ian

Keele University : Weather Data

Lat. 52° 59' 55 N Long. 2° 16' 05 W :

OS Grid Ref : SJ 820447; Alt. 179m (587ft) O.D.

http://www.esci.keele.ac.uk/weather/

[andy_leics22]

Just to point out, this is the East Midlands weather forecast... This includes Leicester, Nottingham, Derby, Northampton...

Tonight:

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow, heavy at times and fresh to strong north to northeast winds. Rain most likely near the east coast.

That suggests to me that it could just be rain all night?

[Herefordweather]

Afraid not, check out the chart I posted, that mild sector SUCKS.

4-6pm?? So how come they are predicting 5-10cm of snow from that? If it started snowing here at 4-6pm and lasted for a good 6 hours then we would be talking 20cm or so, I really don't think this will be a significant event unless you live about 300m ASL in the Midlands.

Perhaps Andy its due to Snow falling on wet surfaces.

As for the 300m ASL, not many people are saying it "WILL" be significant, however as it is always with a marginal setup, if we are the right side of marginal, which IMO, won't be decide until much later on, then some areas could end up with a dumping.

The term "The Midlands" covers a large area and there is no doubt, that some people will be delighted come this time tomorrow, however others will be disapointed, as it nearly always is. Lets just enjoy it, after all, if it turns out to be a disaster, with the charts looking as good as they do, I feel it won't be long until we have another chance. This is by far the best winter I can remember, however I am pretty young, compared to a few on here.

Best of luck tonight Midlanders.

[MKN]

Andy should give you a little more confidence, top pic is 00z ukmo the 2nd is 06z ukmo, noticeable difference now ive zoomed in for every1 who doesnt like looking at a chart that covers a massive area just to try and see our little part of the world

[Polar Low]

Looking forward to tonight, really interesting setup here. I should be comfortably far North to see snowfall tonight, at least for a time. I've got a good feeling these boards are going to get rather busy, especially with members in the North Midlands, Lincs, South Yorks, regions etc.

[NorthantsSnow]

I am quoting my own post here to see if anyone that says the LP has shifted South is going to respond.

Can someone who said this demonstrate it please?

Thanks

Len

See SnowTornado's post. A clear difference.

Afraid not, check out the chart I posted, that mild sector SUCKS.

Out of date chart though.

[andy_leics22]

Ahhh I see what you mean now Northants Snow and Snowtornado That is quite a big difference at such a short timeframe isn't it? That gives the Midlands a better chance than before, interesting.

Edited February 9, 2009 by andy_leics22

[NorthantsSnow]

Just to point out, this is the East Midlands weather forecast... This includes Leicester, Nottingham, Derby, Northampton...

Tonight:

Cloudy with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow, heavy at times and fresh to strong north to northeast winds. Rain most likely near the east coast.

That suggests to me that it could just be rain all night?

That suggests to me it'll be a mixture of rain, sleet and snow, as they have consistently been forecasting.

Very much a nowcasting event now but hardly a "crap event" whatever happens, this is one hell of a winter storm which will cause disruption one way or another and introduces many different risks including heavy rain, sleet, snow, strong winds, thunder, flood risk, etc. Certainly a very active night of weather ahead and will keep the UKMO busy.

[MKN]

lets just hope the 06z is the right chart as it looks far more promising, i guess its a case of wait and see, hopefully start hearing snow reports from further south and west by about 430. i gotta go out at 7 so hopefully its snowing by then i dont want to get soaked.

[MidlandsSean]

Just watched BBC Weather on News 24 with Rob McElwee. Charts suggested snow at 4pm in Birmingham from what I could see.

[TEITS]

Ahhh I see what you mean now Northants Snow and Snowtornado That is quite a big difference at such a short timeframe isn't it? That gives the Midlands a better chance than before, interesting.

I wondered where you were and then thought you would be ramping on this thread. :lol:

Certainly looking forward to tonight. Expecting it all to kick off around 9pm onwards.

[andy_leics22]

Apologies to Northants Snow, I know i've been a grumpy git in here lately but I hate it when I think snow is on the way and it turns into a wash out :lol: I really hope it does hammer it down with snow tonight.

The ECM places the low further South than it did yesterday...

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=temp