Snow Watch: Midlands & C Southern England

[Potent Gust]

This is all so confusing for a relative novice like me! First snow then rain then snow then rain. I bet we will end up with a winter sleet storm tomorrow instead LOL

[Bolton67]

I hope they are right too, I would go ballistic if that level of snow fell I'd be jumping out my bedroom window into it 20cm+ would make a nice soft landing.

But it's not going to happen. the only 20 we will see is 20mm of rain.

let it go.

[MKN]

hmm ppn amounts seem better for tuesday morning, when 850s are less marginal, so even if monday night is a washout looks like an increased chance of back edge snow. As for whether the main band is snow or not, im sticking with the bbc

[barmybrummy1]

ah game over! its gonna be rain i hate the met office they got it all wrong theres me hoping for snow ! im angry now

[andy_leics22]

But it's not going to happen. the only 20 we will see is 20mm of rain.

let it go.

Woahh easy fella, this afternoon you was biggin up this event tomorrow like there was no tomorrow

[Potent Gust]

If there is 20cms here in Tamworth Monday/Tuesday I will take a picture of me rolling in it naked I will be that pleased

[FENDER.]

Looking at the last charts, it will fall as RAIN.

Game over i'm afraid.

Quite likely for the south Midlands. Still looks OK for Birmingham Northwards. Temps OK, Dewpoint, just about OK, 850s OK, dl marginal, but good enough. Heavy ptn should lead to some ec which can only help.

[Nick L]

But it's not going to happen. the only 20 we will see is 20mm of rain.

let it go.

Could you perhaps provide some basis on your claims? And don't simply post the PPN type charts because they discount snow everytime the 850s go above -5 - which isn't always the case. The BBC are showing heavy snow. The Met Office are showing heavy snow. And the respected posters and forecasters on this very website are forecasting heavy snow. It is going to take a heck of a lot of persuading for me to be dislodged. If the BBC have backtracked monumentally by the morning, I may change my viewpoint, but at the moment I believe it will be mostly snow for my location.

[Bolton67]

Woahh easy fella, this afternoon you was biggin up this event tomorrow like there was no tomorrow

Yes i was, but now i can see the real picture.

[barmybrummy1]

before anyone gets moaining it could all change and as nick said many are saying heavy snow .

[andy_leics22]

Hmmm this is the forecast on BBC weather website for the Midlands tomorrow... No mention of snow.

Monday:

A mostly dry day, with some bright spells before becoming overcast in the late morning or afternoon. Rain or sleet likely to reach the south of the region by evening.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Continuing cold. A cloudy, windy start to Tuesday then sunny spells developing and winds easing. A few wintry showers likely Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps also on Thursday.

BBC Weather Centre in association with the Met Office

Issued on: Sunday 8 February 2009

Valid between: 1800 and 0600

[Nick L]

Hmmm this is the forecast on BBC weather website for the Midlands tomorrow... No mention of snow.

Monday:

A mostly dry day, with some bright spells before becoming overcast in the late morning or afternoon. Rain or sleet likely to reach the south of the region by evening.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Continuing cold. A cloudy, windy start to Tuesday then sunny spells developing and winds easing. A few wintry showers likely Tuesday, Wednesday and perhaps also on Thursday.

BBC Weather Centre in association with the Met Office

Issued on: Sunday 8 February 2009

Valid between: 1800 and 0600

That's because it is happening overnight, and that forecast you quoted doesn't seem to include the overnight period.

[FENDER.]

The whole point is this. It could rain in Northampton, Sleet in Birmingham, and snow in Stoke. The Midlands is a hugh area. If you want to throw in the towel, fine. Those of us further north are keeping the faith

[MKN]

If there is 20cms here in Tamworth Monday/Tuesday I will take a picture of me rolling in it naked I will be that pleased

take the pic if u must just dont post it here lol

[I remember Atlantic 252]

skies clearing here now, should have snow still in the morning, will by frosty and slippy 0.9C now

[Bolton67]

Could you perhaps provide some basis on your claims? And don't simply post the PPN type charts because they discount snow everytime the 850s go above -5 - which isn't always the case. The BBC are showing heavy snow. The Met Office are showing heavy snow. And the respected posters and forecasters on this very website are forecasting heavy snow. It is going to take a heck of a lot of persuading for me to be dislodged. If the BBC have backtracked monumentally by the morning, I may change my viewpoint, but at the moment I believe it will be mostly snow for my location.

The basis of my claims...the LP is is going too far north.north of sheffield ..across to lancashire have the better chance

you will wake up all excited and Tuesday morning expecting blizzards

in fact you will wake up to torrential rain I'm afraid.

[barmybrummy1]

bbc forecast for the west midlands

Headline:

Snow clearing northwards this evening. Mostly dry and bright Monday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Outbreaks of snow lasting into the evening, but clearing away northeastwards by or soon after midnight. Thereafter, a dry night with clear spells and turning frosty with patchy mist. Untreated surfaces are likely to become very icy.

Monday:

A frosty start with patchy mist, then a mostly dry, cold day with sunny spells. Thickening cloud and increasing wind bringing sleet or snow northwards to southern areas towards evening.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Heavy snow and strong winds Monday night clearing southeastwards on Tuesday. Thereafter, clear or sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Sharp frosts and patches of fog night and morning.

[Potent Gust]

Well the news at 10 is just about to start on BBC 1. In my eyes that is an important forcast. Primetime Sunday, they will not want to make rash or over the top forcasts with millions watching.

[andy_leics22]

The whole point is this. It could rain in Northampton, Sleet in Birmingham, and snow in Stoke. The Midlands is a hugh area. If you want to throw in the towel, fine. Those of us further north are keeping the faith

I could be classed as North midlands aswell though, Leicester is North East of Birmingham and 35 miles North of Northampton. I still think it will be heavy rain here though

[Potent Gust]

take the pic if u must just dont post it here lol

I will if everyone gives a donation to charity!!!

[Nick L]

The basis of my claims...the LP is is going too far north.north of sheffield ..across to lancashire have the better chance

you will wake up all excited and Tuesday morning expecting blizzards

in fact you will wake up to torrential rain I'm afraid.

Ok we will agree to differ, but you are going completely against the Met Office, BBC and Net Weather forecasters - very brave of you! Watching the latest BBC forecast now, and with 24 hours to go they still haven't changed their tune a great deal.

[andy_leics22]

bbc forecast for the west midlands

Headline:

Snow clearing northwards this evening. Mostly dry and bright Monday.

This Evening and Tonight:

Outbreaks of snow lasting into the evening, but clearing away northeastwards by or soon after midnight. Thereafter, a dry night with clear spells and turning frosty with patchy mist. Untreated surfaces are likely to become very icy.

Monday:

A frosty start with patchy mist, then a mostly dry, cold day with sunny spells. Thickening cloud and increasing wind bringing sleet or snow northwards to southern areas towards evening.

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Heavy snow and strong winds Monday night clearing southeastwards on Tuesday. Thereafter, clear or sunny spells and scattered wintry showers. Sharp frosts and patches of fog night and morning.

Yeh the forecast I posted was East Midlands but that includes Leicester, Northampton, Nottingham etc...

[A.J]

Looking at the last charts, it will fall as RAIN.

Game over i'm afraid.

Obviously depending on your location......Just been looking at the 18z run, and Nick and anyone else towards the north west of our region could yet see wintry weather particularly as the precip is shunted south eastwards tuesday daytime....Colder upper air is pulled in from the north east, the 528dam line has been shunted well to the south east of the region, dewpoints are marginal but drop markedly as the band passes through....So having re-read the models, I can infer that potential is good for a possibly longer spell of snow towards the back edge of the band the further north and west you are, and with cold air in place before the band arrives, who can tell what tomorrow night might bring?

Apologies if this post is similar to one I posted a few hours ago, but nothing much has changed in the latest run...The potential is still there from where I'm sitting, and once again, its this particular period, rather than tomorrow night that has particularly caught my eye

Edited February 8, 2009 by ajpoolshark

[Bolton67]

Ok we will agree to differ, but you are going completely against the Met Office, BBC and Net Weather forecasters - very brave of you! Watching the latest BBC forecast now, and with 24 hours to go they still haven't changed their tune a great deal.

If I'm wrong I'll hold my hands up..but a lot of people in the midland are going to be very disappointed.

[MKN]

Yeh the forecast I posted was East Midlands but that includes Leicester, Northampton, Nottingham etc...

theres no way west mids will get snow east mids dont. so i think 1 of them is wrong.