Ireland Cold Spell Discussion

[The Eagle]

All looking very very good. Not much more to be said really. Friday onward.

[January Snowstorm]

All looking very very good. Not much more to be said really. Friday onward.

yes indeed just cross your fingers and toes that it's all there in the morning

An exceptional run

[The Eagle]

yes indeed just cross your fingers and toes that it's all there in the morning

An exceptional run

The UKMO and ECM are also very good for Ireland so it's all good atm really. It can change very quickly of course but might aswell enjoy what is in front of us while it is there.

[Baltic Regions]

Maybe the Donegal postman who predicts the weather is right!

This is certainly causing some excitment. Lets hope it bears out!

"Don't wait for it to happen. Don't even want it to happen. Just sit back and watch what does happen" (Untouchables 1987)

[Danno]

That image just screams Polar Low potential.

[ronan]

Looks like an interesting pic Ronan, can you re-post as resized?

Some sharp bursts of rain here this evening, and a bit of hail mixed in. Gone quite cold too, maybe snow over the higher hills. This is the middle part of the long tortuous process of the troughs pushing down/in from the northeast and east

I can't see that widespread snow on sunday, that slow-moving cold front may turn to snow in places, but will it be dying out? We badly need more penetration of the initial cold burst from the north, followed by forming troughs - still looks like that will only happen in North and east Scotland and east England, with scatter showers around coasts elsewhere. The front seems to be arriving in air that's too mild to give snow itself except over high ground, and not great amounts unless it peps up, which is possible

Ther ya go. Think it should be ok now. Would be great if we had scenes like this come the end of the weekend.

Looks like an interesting pic Ronan, can you re-post as resized?

Some sharp bursts of rain here this evening, and a bit of hail mixed in. Gone quite cold too, maybe snow over the higher hills. This is the middle part of the long tortuous process of the troughs pushing down/in from the northeast and east

I can't see that widespread snow on sunday, that slow-moving cold front may turn to snow in places, but will it be dying out? We badly need more penetration of the initial cold burst from the north, followed by forming troughs - still looks like that will only happen in North and east Scotland and east England, with scatter showers around coasts elsewhere. The front seems to be arriving in air that's too mild to give snow itself except over high ground, and not great amounts unless it peps up, which is possible

Last go at this. I'm useless at doing this picture thing!!!

[Altohumorous]

Ther ya go. Think it should be ok now. Would be great if we had scenes like this come the end of the weekend.

Last go at this. I'm useless at doing this picture thing!!!

You got it right with the one on the right! Nice. Have you posted it in the "Lamping" thread?

[ronan]

You got it right with the one on the right! Nice. Have you posted it in the "Lamping" thread?

Na not yet. Must do that now. :lol:

[Danno]

I would like to throw my hat in the ring and call it more or less nailed on. All the numbers do stack up. All the boxes are ticked. Why I am pretty sure is because...

1. We have seen in the past (Oct 2008) that this did happen under conditions less favourable than now...

2. NW Russia temperatures are in the -40c's, which is what we are drawing off of...

3. SSTs are rather warm in the Irish sea which will fuel the showers...

4. Wind directions are excellent - an easterly, turning northerly, then easterly once more...

5. Even at the 60km GFS is forecasting very convincing cold for here. Most of the lat/long calculations are offshore for Ireland. i.e. People might look at the min/max temps for Dublin and see 4c, but the actual sweetspot for the calculation is some miles off Greystones out in the sea.

Bring it all on!!! *

* - hopes not to have to eat the same hat come this day week!!!

[Danno]

brilliant 00z run, esp for ireland even out into fi.

[frostyjoe]

how much snow can i expect on sat ight etc?????

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Morning everyone look good for Christmas, don't know if I will see much snow in Tyrone this weekend looks like Frosty Joe and Ronan will get the most of what is going but put it this way anything we get can only be good at this stage.

To me Jan is looking very promising

P.S. Love the Untouchables quote Baltic

[The watcher]

Netweather has snow for me as early as tommorow, certainly this morning has started nippier than the last few days while the milder sector was overhead....now its all downhill from here I'm afraid. Its nice to know that I called it turning increasingly colder from Mid Dec at the end of Nov, in my mini forecast in the December CET thread Wonder if I can make #1 Seasonal CET spot again.

[Altohumorous]

I would like to throw my hat in the ring and call it more or less nailed on. All the numbers do stack up. All the boxes are ticked. Why I am pretty sure is because...

1. We have seen in the past (Oct 2008) that this did happen under conditions less favourable than now...

2. NW Russia temperatures are in the -40c's, which is what we are drawing off of...

3. SSTs are rather warm in the Irish sea which will fuel the showers...

4. Wind directions are excellent - an easterly, turning northerly, then easterly once more...

5. Even at the 60km GFS is forecasting very convincing cold for here. Most of the lat/long calculations are offshore for Ireland. i.e. People might look at the min/max temps for Dublin and see 4c, but the actual sweetspot for the calculation is some miles off Greystones out in the sea.

Bring it all on!!! *

* - hopes not to have to eat the same hat come this day week!!!

Ah now hould on there a second - we are drawing on NW Russia air? Not quite, the air we will get is what has been over southern Scandinavia and the northern Continent the past couple of days, and the flow dies and goes northerly before the feed from further east can bring it's air.

Parts of East and maybe Central Europe will get that air in the next couple of days. If the flow had lasted/strengthened, we would get much lower temps than we are going to, but such an event is incredibly rare

[michail]

The weather won't change that much for Friday either; generally dry and cold with low daytime temperatures and the frost not clearing at all from shaded ground. Friday will again be a bright day with good spells of mid-December sunshine throughout the country. However scattered showers will still affect places along the east and north coasts, carried in by the onshore breezes. Over the weekend, the winds go more to a north or northwesterly direction and this will allow cloudier weather with outbreaks of rain to develop across Ulster, north Connacht and parts of north Leinster too. But the rest of the country will be dry for the weekend and the showers will disappear from the east coast. On Monday that rain in the north gradually dies out and the day is dry but still cold. The circulation in the atmosphere shows no sign of returning to its normal Atlantic pattern early next week. So that means it should stay fairly dry up until mid-week with the winds eventually going easterly in direction

This forecast from met eireann isn't very promising, no mention of snow or even sleet!

[mountain shadow]

Saturday night through Sunday looks nailed for heavy snow in Donegall, Derry, Antrim, Down with snow in other counties also.

After that, with low pressure nearby dew points will lift and things become impossible to forecast at thois range. However, if you live up a hill like me (450ft), it should stay as snow throughout.

[SnowJon]

Saturday night through Sunday looks nailed for heavy snow in Donegall, Derry, Antrim, Down with snow in other counties also.

After that, with low pressure nearby dew points will lift and things become impossible to forecast at thois range. However, if you live up a hill like me (450ft), it should stay as snow throughout.

Hello! My posts are getting lost on TWO, so it's time to move over here for a bit I think! Yes - I especially like this precipitation chart:

http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gfs/run/gfs-2-108.png?6

Looking good - the only fly in the ointment is the media forecasts from both the UKMO and Met Eireann...

[Danno]

Good morning. I have just read the Met E forecast there...

Tonight

Often clear tonight and cold and frosty. Lowest temperatures of -3 to +2C.

Tomorrow

Another cold and dry day except for more showery weather in places near the east coast.

This is a forecast that covers a 30 hour period! They are unable to call it at the moment, plain and simple.

[mt-leinster-snow-drifts]

Does anybody know how Wexford will fair over the next week or so?

I'm just over 10 miles from the coast and about 270 feet asl.

Do I even stand a chance at seeing a flake?

[SnowJon]

Good news - an advance warning for heavy snow on Sunday in Northern Ireland - Met Eireann are playing catchup now:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/ni/ni_forecast_warnings.html

[ronan]

Good mornng to you all. Things looking great this morning.Roll on the weekend. Sunday looks to be the best of the days for snow but i think we could see snow as early as saturday. Happy times

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hello SnowJon,

Loving the fact that the Meto have issued an advanced warning

Hello Ronan,

I am working up in Derry City next week so even if I don't see any of the white stuff in Tyrone (which I will) I will get the benefit of seeing it in Derry

[Danno]

Does anybody know how Wexford will fair over the next week or so?

I'm just over 10 miles from the coast and about 270 feet asl.

Do I even stand a chance at seeing a flake?

About as much chance as yea have of winning the Leinster SHC in 2010!!! :yahoo:

Seriously though, you have a moderate chance - your 90m ASL is good, but 10 miles from the coast is just borderline. 50/50.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

About as much chance as yea have of winning the Leinster SHC in 2010!!!

Seriously though, you have a moderate chance - your 90m ASL is good, but 10 miles from the coast is just borderline. 50/50.

Hello Danno I think you guys are looking good for some snow showers tomorrow

[frostyjoe]

nw are forecasting snow as early as thrusday , but i think the snow will be worst at sunday morning saturday night and thank god maxes will be 3c tomorrow becuase im sick of this 6c max and rain ughhhhh!!!! when are the temps expected to go down in ni tonight?????