Midlands, East Anglia and Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 4

[I remember Atlantic 252]

has the model thread closed down? couldnt access it

[A.J]

has the model thread closed down? couldnt access it

It's re-opened now Mark.....It was closed to allow the site team to deal with issues relating to the standard of posting in said thread

[shotski]

Ok it might not of backtracked to the GFS but it certainly has downgraded the depth of cold from a couple of days ago, if anyone is happy with the ECM then they have low standards of winter weather.

Last Feb the ECM predicted raging easterlies a couple of times, that never happened this model is not as good as some make out.

I must be looking at a different set of charts maybe

We live in the UK not murmansk

[I remember Atlantic 252]

It's re-opened now Mark.....It was closed to allow the site team to deal with issues relating to the standard of posting in said thread

seems to be too many model threads, technical thread is unnecessary, the original model thread should be come the technical one, and the model moods thread should be where the majority of posts go, my posts are more suited to model chat thread

[JennyJane1]

i wasnt sure what happened this morning very early,something small and white was falling on me and i held out my hand but it didn't feel cold so i decided it must be some tree blossom,but even that in january is odd.it was warm and not conducive to snow or icy rain at the time.

[shotski]

i wasnt sure what happened this morning very early,something small and white was falling on me and i held out my hand but it didn't feel cold so i decided it must be some tree blossom,but even that in january is odd.it was warm and not conducive to snow or icy rain at the time.

Was there any birds flying over at the time :lol:

[Snowy Easterly]

I must be looking at a different set of charts maybe

We live in the UK not murmansk

yes we live in the UK not Barcelona

the ECM is a downgrade no two ways about it

[WheresTheSnow]

Is it just going to stay cold for the next few days then without any snow, I saw someone say the other day it as going to get mild again on Tuesday or something, is this still the case? Why is there never any precipitation when its cold enough to snow!

[cheshire snow]

yes we live in the UK not Barcelona

the ECM is a downgrade no two ways about it

In what respects may i ask

if we where looking for a long cold spell yes i agree it is a downgrade

if you are looking for oppertunities for snow then it looks ok

GFS rolling out now will the drama continue????

C.S

[cheshire snow]

Is it just going to stay cold for the next few days then without any snow, I saw someone say the other day it as going to get mild again on Tuesday or something, is this still the case? Why is there never any precipitation when its cold enough to snow!

Because ATM we are under high pressure so no PPN around

Next week yes milder Tues/Wed and to start with thursaday also

then colder weather spreading from the north or NW with the possibility

of some snow for places.

C.S

[andy_leics22]

i dar not even post in the model thred tonight with all the toys bring thrown out of people prams all i say looking deep in to F1 it seems there a mark wateing down of the snow/cold it seems to me if the mild weather won again if we are lucky we might get one day

Looking deep into F1? :w00t: vvvvvrrrrrrRRROOOOOOOOOOOOMMMmmmmm

Sorry, couldn't resist, I love mentioning that when someone says F1 instead of FI

[Floatylight]

a couple of snowflakes showing, on the m/o for 9am this morning for norwich

[TonyH]

My take on the coming week, in spite of based on recent model trends/ outputs:

Weather guide Monday 16th to Sunday 22nd January (west Wales and central Midlands centric!)

Headline: Dry and bright start, then unsettled with variable temperatures

In spite of high pressure last week, nuisance weak troughs plagued west Wales, so that our dry interlude was delayed and spells of drizzle up to Thursday put another 8mm in the Llanwnnen rain gauge. However, this amount is far below a typical weekly deposit for January. The Midlands did though manage a mainly dry week, with less than half a millimetre falling on Coventry in the past 7 days. Dry weather proper has now arrived in Ceredigion for the first time since mid November.

The models have been very interesting to follow over the past week, with the GFS continuing to keep the worst of Winter at bay, while ECM has been consistently threatening a cold northerly blast come the end of the coming week. However, I am inclined to go with the equally consistent but more moderate, milder outlook that the GFS has been delivering, plus that ECM seems just this morning to have moved well away from the very cold, potentially snowy prognosis of a few days ago. Therefore, I foresee no real change to significant cold later this week.

High pressure is still close to England during Monday and Tuesday, so that the pleasant dry, bright spell continues for a few more days. Further frosts by night, down to as low as -3c. A chilly south east breeze on Monday, maxima 4-6c, but less cold on Tuesday.

A deep low pressure then passes close to Iceland bringing with it cloud, wind and rain at times for Wednesday and Thursday. Also it turns mild, maxima on Wednesday above 10c once more. The cold front clears through some time on Thursday, so cooling off, with perhaps some late sunshine and showers . After an early ground frost, Friday sees a chilly blustery north west wind, with sunny spells and some showers, these perhaps wintry over high ground.

A mixed weekend then follows with mild and colder interludes, with a west to north west flow prevailing, and there will be some rain at times but also with drier spells between.

For (hopefully!) supportive charts see the Welsh thread:

http://forum.netweat...48#entry2213348

Edited January 15, 2012 by TonyH

[Snowangel-MK]

Afternoon all,

Another cold night and a chilly start here this morning at just -3.7 °C first thing !

I went out walking for two and a half hours during which time it didn’t get above freezing, it took a nice hot bath and mug of coffee to thaw me out

Although it wasn't quite as cold as Friday night there was an even thicker frost, it’s got up to 4.2 °C now and it’s a stunningly beautiful day with clear blue sky and sunshine.

Looks like my snow fix will be coming from watching Ski Sunday later, oh well

Edited January 15, 2012 by MKsnowangel

[PolarWarsaw]

Can't help but feel dissapointed today - it feels like all the time ive stayed up watching this week has resolved nothing/given no reward. Whilst the wind does loook NW for the weekend, I just dont see snow. If im honest, the only reason I like cold is so that we see snow, but even that doesn't happen much these days. I no its only January 15th, but the next 4 or 5 weeks is going to have to give me something spectacular to re-ignite my passion for the weather after a thoroughly horrendous 2011 weather wise.

[andy_leics22]

Can't help but feel dissapointed today - it feels like all the time ive stayed up watching this week has resolved nothing/given no reward. Whilst the wind does loook NW for the weekend, I just dont see snow. If im honest, the only reason I like cold is so that we see snow, but even that doesn't happen much these days. I no its only January 15th, but the next 4 or 5 weeks is going to have to give me something spectacular to re-ignite my passion for the weather after a thoroughly horrendous 2011 weather wise.

I agree Radders, I like cold and icy Weather but really the only reason I check the models during Winter is to look for snowy spells, dry and cold with no chance of snow doesn't really do it for me.

[WheresTheSnow]

Can't help but feel dissapointed today - it feels like all the time ive stayed up watching this week has resolved nothing/given no reward. Whilst the wind does loook NW for the weekend, I just dont see snow. If im honest, the only reason I like cold is so that we see snow, but even that doesn't happen much these days. I no its only January 15th, but the next 4 or 5 weeks is going to have to give me something spectacular to re-ignite my passion for the weather after a thoroughly horrendous 2011 weather wise.

BBC weather report didnt seem too bad, showed a bit of snow in places on Friday, which was updated at 12:20 today.

Edited January 15, 2012 by WheresTheSnow

[A.J]

Looking deep into F1? :w00t: vvvvvrrrrrrRRROOOOOOOOOOOOMMMmmmmm

Sorry, couldn't resist, I love mentioning that when someone says F1 instead of FI

yes, most odd, I've just been looking at the model output, especially way out into F1, and the models show the same thing, blue's being eroded by red's...Conclusion? Alonso is gonna kick Vettel's backside this season and the McLarens won't even get a look in, the models said so!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 decent winter days, frost today so thick it looks like snow! double layer of frost in places, from friday night, then last night, -3.0C min today, 1.5C max (0.5C ) yesterday

1 more cold inversion style day, then back to the crappy autumn

[kmanmx]

ECM looks great.

I can't believe this is verifying, this is making it very tempting to cancel my holiday from the 21st to 28th Still 7+ days out though, much could change.

Edited January 15, 2012 by kmanmx

[The Wolf]

Looking potentially very wintry from next weekend onwards if the models are to be believed.

[yorkieblade]

Sorry to be off topic ...Not sure which Regional forum I ought to be in ...help required please ...my location is south Sheffield close to the NE Derbyshire border ...I will ask the same question in the Northern Forum......!

Currently -2 ,clear skies ..and the REAL cold air has'nt arrived yet ..looking a bit more like our Winter may start on Friday onwards....!

[Staffordshire]

Hey! Your in a bit of a tricky place there! There are alot of members from cheshire area in the northen thread so that could mean you go their, however they also pop in here! You're more than welcome here my friend and we will be glad to have your company, also I'm sure you can pop into the northen thread!

Sorry to be off topic ...Not sure which Regional forum I ought to be in ...help required please ...my location is south Sheffield close to the NE Derbyshire border ...I will ask the same question in the Northern Forum......!

Currently -2 ,clear skies ..and the REAL cold air has'nt arrived yet ..looking a bit more like our Winter may start on Friday onwards....!

[Snowangel-MK]

Sorry to be off topic ...Not sure which Regional forum I ought to be in ...help required please ...my location is south Sheffield close to the NE Derbyshire border ...I will ask the same question in the Northern Forum......!

Currently -2 ,clear skies ..and the REAL cold air has'nt arrived yet ..looking a bit more like our Winter may start on Friday onwards....!

Hi yorkieblade, you are welcome here and you can post in which ever regional thread you like, quite a few members visit more than one regional, especially when we are busy and they get split into smaller area's. It's often a good way of seeing what;s coming your way or comparing snow depths with your neighbouring counties.

[Terminal Moraine]

Sorry to be off topic ...Not sure which Regional forum I ought to be in ...help required please ...my location is south Sheffield close to the NE Derbyshire border ...I will ask the same question in the Northern Forum......!

Currently -2 ,clear skies ..and the REAL cold air has'nt arrived yet ..looking a bit more like our Winter may start on Friday onwards....!

I'm about 25 miles to your south west and I tend to wander between the Midland and Northern threads. If the weather turns more wintry there will be a dedicated Yorkshire thread but in the meantime I wouldn't worry too much, just post where you feel appropriate.