Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014

[keithlucky]

Snow 17 cms dropped in Kerma N East Russia

[feb1991blizzard]

That cannot happen in October can it!!!

It looks like another WTF moment to me.

 

MIA

 

 

That can happen, whether it could make it the extra mileage to get over the UK in October would be questionable though, history tells you it couldn't, not without being modified so much that it ends up a drizzly east coast affair anyway!

[SMU]

Cover gets even further West if the CFS verified, although given its probably the worst model, that's a much lower question mark threshold I must admit!!!.

 

 

 

The longest draw easterly ever?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101906/run1m/cfsnh-0-798.png?06

[bluearmy]

The longest draw easterly ever?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101906/run1m/cfsnh-0-798.png?06

All the way to n Korea !

[feb1991blizzard]

The longest draw easterly ever?

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/runs/2014101906/run1m/cfsnh-0-798.png?06

 

HA HA, it goes half way around the globe, imagine that in mid jan, with the pattern just a tad further North with 1987 style uppers, then we'd be in business.

[summer blizzard]

Ha. There is a chart from 47 showing an easterly all the way from eastern Europe to mid-Canada.

[bryan629]

A very nice leap Westwards with snowcover today .....

 

Saturday                                                   Sunday

[radiohead]

A very nice leap Westwards with snowcover today .....

 

Saturday                                                   Sunday

cursnow_sat18.gifims2014292_sun19.gif

 

Not only westward but an increase south of 60 too. Fantastic...

[summer blizzard]

Euro ensembles are great for Eurasian snow below 60N.

 

[Kyros]

It looks like a giant gingerbread man has got stuck in the polar ice...

[summer blizzard]

There's a guy on another forum who forecasts the end of month amount daily based from the Euro ensembles. He's suggesting the 4th most negative SAI (behind 76, 09 and 12).

[Turnedoutniceagain]

http://www.svein-nordahl.com/svalbard/webcam/webcam_LYB.php

 

White out in Svalbard. The last time I checked (2/3 wks ago) there wasn't a flake !!

[Interitus]

Snow 17 cms dropped in Kerma N East Russia

 

It says it's the Perm to Ochyor road, around 700 miles east of Moscow towards the Urals.

Edited October 20, 2014 by Interitus

[Interitus]

http://www.svein-nordahl.com/svalbard/webcam/webcam_LYB.php

 

White out in Svalbard. The last time I checked (2/3 wks ago) there wasn't a flake !!

 

The snow in Svalbard might take a bit of a pounding in the next few days, particularly further south, before it turns colder again next week.

[Skyraker]

I used to live in Chelyabinsk. October is definitely the time for accumulations, after that it doesn't snow in the same way. Instead of thick wuffy flakes it becomes more like a constant ice drizzle. Oh its snow alright at -30c, but nothing that really accumulated, seems the keep the status quo v sublimation.

[karyo]

The 12z gfs is not brilliant as it is bound to do some damage to the fresh snow cover in the European side of Russia and even further east by the month's end. The Arctic high becomes a Russian high and gradually sinks south allowing a westerly/southwesterly. Let's hope it doesn't verify.

 

The ECM also takes a turn for the worse and couldn't be different to yesterday's 12z! Worrying times for the snow cover!

Edited October 20, 2014 by karyo

[bluearmy]

The 12z gfs is not brilliant as it is bound to do some damage to the fresh snow cover in the European side of Russia and even further east by the month's end. The Arctic high becomes a Russian high and gradually sinks south allowing a westerly/southwesterly. Let's hope it doesn't verify.

 

The ECM also takes a turn for the worse and couldn't be different to yesterday's 12z! Worrying times for the snow cover!

No op consistency = take no notice

[Interitus]

Was going to post yesterday that Moscow had their first couple of inches of snow, web cams showed most had melted by the evening with temperatures above freezing and rain, which makes this accident less understandable - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29699733

[Bradowl]

Was going to post yesterday that Moscow had their first couple of inches of snow, web cams showed most had melted by the evening with temperatures above freezing and rain, which makes this accident less understandable - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29699733

 

Looks like something a little wintry is falling at Man City game in Moscow.

[Iceni]

The 12z gfs is not brilliant as it is bound to do some damage to the fresh snow cover in the European side of Russia and even further east by the month's end. The Arctic high becomes a Russian high and gradually sinks south allowing a westerly/southwesterly. Let's hope it doesn't verify.

 

The ECM also takes a turn for the worse and couldn't be different to yesterday's 12z! Worrying times for the snow cover!

 

 

Oh please God not another winter like last year (and this year) we can't have that much bad luck.

[Gael_Force]

Can anyone help me with the theory behind the snow cover extent. Is it the snow which will create the right pressure pattern or is it the favourable pressure pattern which produces the snow? The important aspect seems to be that it happens in October - this then raises the question of whether it matters if, come November, there are subsequent reductions due to a change in synoptics?

[gottolovethisweather]

Not sure how this compares with other years with matching data but here is the latest Cryosphere global imagery.

 

 

Doesn't look too bad a setup given the time of year but could also be better perhaps. Anyway, it is what it is and I would like to some extension of the cover spreading below 60N as so often quoted as a line to cross.

 

Here is where we were some 8 days forward back in 2012, a potential analogue year to follow.

 

 

 

I wonder how much more we might require as we move forward into November then? It looks like 2012 had a very different placement and distribution of Ice around the North Pole and into Northern Europe which I see as a bonus as 2014 has a better distribution for it up to now. As for a comparison against the Pacific region in 8 days time, we could do with seeing a better distribution and spread southwards of Snow and Ice over in Asia, so a negative in this case. 

 

I will leave others to debate this further but Western Asia as alluded to by some might be an area to watch as how to things finish come late October.

Edited October 21, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[Midlands Ice Age]

Not sure how this compares with other years with matching data but here is the latest Cryosphere global imagery.

 

201014 cryosphere image.png

 

Doesn't look too bad a setup given the time of year but could also be better perhaps. Anyway, it is what it is and I would like to some extension of the cover spreading below 60N as so often quoted as a line to cross.

 

Here is where we were some 8 days forward back in 2012, a potential analogue year to follow.

 

Cryosphere NH snowcover and ice 281012.png

 

 

I wonder how much more we might require as we move forward into November then? It looks like 2012 had a very different placement and distribution of Ice around the North Pole and into Northern Europe which I see as a bonus as 2014 has a better distribution for it up to now. As for a comparison against the Pacific region in 8 days time, we could do with seeing a better distribution and spread southwards of Snow and Ice over in Asia, so a negative in this case. 

 

I will leave others to debate this further but Western Asia as alluded to by some might be an area to watch as how to things finish come late October.

 

Its interesting to compare gtltw..

 

Much more ice already around Svabard and to the west of the main ice-sheet. Also to the other side (the East) of the pack north of Canada thee is more ice. To compensate there is much less ice in the East Siberian sea. I however think that by this time next week (cf 2012) that most of that will have filled in (looking at the charts) as it is very cold there at the moment.

 

So still looking good at the moment for ice build up.

 

MIA.

[gottolovethisweather]

Can anyone help me with the theory behind the snow cover extent. Is it the snow which will create the right pressure pattern or is it the favourable pressure pattern which produces the snow? The important aspect seems to be that it happens in October - this then raises the question of whether it matters if, come November, there are subsequent reductions due to a change in synoptics?

 

Well, all I can suggest is to read those first postings on any of the following.

 

The Stratosphere thread front page

 

The October Index thread front page

 

Or even this very thread

 

 

I have to keep doing so every and now again in order to refresh my memory. I actually print them out and keep them to hand for occasional browsing.

 

My interest of using October 2012 as a marker has been mentioned elsewhere but according to my weather station, the November which followed returned a -1.6c departure from the norm by way of Temperature. The Winter 2012/13 which followed wasn't remarkable but it was a reasonable one from memory for snowfall and we achieved 3 ice days and 39 air frosts to boot. My feeling is that November 2014 will also be colder than normal, will it snow then is anyone's guess at this range but I'm certainly hopeful for something more seasonal than just incessant rain and gales. 

Edited October 21, 2014 by gottolovethisweather

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

A winter like last year is probably as likely as a 1962/63 repeat surely! I think that will finish me off if we do have another snowless winter here !!