Spring 2022 Chat

[SunSean]

11 hours ago, RabbitEars said:

I've really enjoyed being able to progress with my outdoor project this week as it's been warm ish and dry (max temp 13C min about 4-6C). When do you think we'll get the next dry spell ...say of at least 5 days in a row? 

Am vacationing in the Lake District from Easter for a week... any clue of weather trends? 

Cheers 

April 17th to April 23rd has been excellent, dry and sunny for 4 years straight now so could be a good bet.

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

What a great couple of weeks it has been, one of the best early spring spells I can remember. Such a shame the next couple of weeks are looking awful.

Cold and wet coming up. I can hardly contain my excitement...

[reef]

Just passed 175 hours of sunshine here this month. Only 27 hours more required in the remaining days for this to be the sunniest March on record for us.

Edited March 26, 2022 by reef

[Nick L]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

On an equal footing with the excellent last 10 days of March 2012, 2020.

When the bars at Reading Uni ran out of booze on the final day of term because everyone was basking in the sun. Happy days.

[Froze were the Days]

Latest ECM run develops low pressure over southern/south eastern UK which will translate into fairly cold wet and miserable for a few days...still find it amazing how we struggle even at this time of year to get a cold air mass over the country...last February was the last time IMBY but that largely only affected to the south and east.

[Snowy L]

Nice walk at the local lake, everyone enjoying themselves strangers saying hello to each other. Don't understand how someone can't like this and even be looking forward to snow in April that will melt after 2 minutes of sun exposure.

[LetItSnow!]

Certainly has felt like a very sunny start to the year, with January having abundant sunshine and now March on its way to being exceptionally sunny. I can understand why  some people might be sad to see a change to colder weather but if we do see winds from a northerly quadrant then it usually brings about a lot of fine and sunny weather. Last April shows you don't need warmth to enjoy the sunshine - indeed, despite some unfavourable personal memories from that time, weatherwise I'll always be fond of April 2021. I welcome another in 2022. It would be funny if after 30+ years of no real cold Aprils that we'd have two in a row. While I understand some concerns about night frosts causing damage (I do sympathise with the green thumbs), some posts in the past week have seemed so melodramatic it's unreal - the country will not be plunged into misery. We can definitely cope!

 

[MP-R]

Cold(er) Aprils do often come in pairs or small clusters. 2012 & 2013 or the 1998-2001 period for example. 1999 holds the record for latest lying snow I’ve seen imby - 14th April.

[damianslaw]

1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Cold(er) Aprils do often come in pairs or small clusters. 2012 & 2013 or the 1998-2001 period for example. 1999 holds the record for latest lying snow I’ve seen imby - 14th April.

Aprils of 1998, 1999 and 2000 all brought potent northerlies and snowfall here after very mild winters. The arctic is still very cold in April and snow to low levels can easily happen.

[MP-R]

22 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Aprils of 1998, 1999 and 2000 all brought potent northerlies and snowfall here after very mild winters. The arctic is still very cold in April and snow to low levels can easily happen.

‘Falling’ yes but lying snow is a real rarity after mid March down here. That’s what made the polar low in mid April 1999 quite exceptional. The only lying snow in April I’ve seen since was in 2008.

[LetItSnow!]

26 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Aprils of 1998, 1999 and 2000 all brought potent northerlies and snowfall here after very mild winters. The arctic is still very cold in April and snow to low levels can easily happen.

April 1999 strikes me as quite the unusual month - very warm beggining, cold and snowy mid-section with some big hailstorms, then turning warm again in the final third.

The C.E.T. from the 1st to the 12th, 11.2°C - 13th to the 20th, 5.1°C, 21st to the 30th, 11.0°C - overall average, 9.4°C

A very cold spell in an exceptionally warm month, warm spring and mild year.

My father tells me of that time as he'd recently been on a trip to India over his birthday (April Fools Day) which had been very hot and when he returned, apparently the weather was very warm and everyone was out and about in the t-shirts talking about fine it was, whereas he was freezing as he wasn't yet accustomed to back to colder temperatures. The mid-April freeze must have felt extra sharp for him!

Edited March 26, 2022 by LetItSnow!

[MP-R]

19 minutes ago, LetItSnow! said:

April 1999 strikes me as quite the unusual month - very warm beggining, cold and snowy mid-section with some big hailstorms, then turning warm again in the final third.

The C.E.T. from the 1st to the 12th, 11.2°C - 13th to the 20th, 5.1°C, 21st to the 30th, 11.0°C - overall average, 9.4°C

A very cold spell in an exceptionally warm month, warm spring and mild year.

My father tells me of that time as he'd recently been on a trip to India over his birthday (April Fools Day) which had been very hot and when he returned, apparently the weather was very warm and everyone was out and about in the t-shirts talking about fine it was, whereas he was freezing as he wasn't yet accustomed to back to colder temperatures. The mid-April freeze must have felt extra sharp for him!

One of the more interesting Aprils. Had a bit of everything. May was also an interesting month - on the wet side but very thundery!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

Aprils of 1998, 1999 and 2000 all brought potent northerlies and snowfall here after very mild winters. The arctic is still very cold in April and snow to low levels can easily happen.

Dosen't need to be as cold to snow either! snow can fall at 6 degrees in April, no chance in Dec to Feb

[Sunny76]

2 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

Certainly has felt like a very sunny start to the year, with January having abundant sunshine and now March on its way to being exceptionally sunny. I can understand why  some people might be sad to see a change to colder weather but if we do see winds from a northerly quadrant then it usually brings about a lot of fine and sunny weather. Last April shows you don't need warmth to enjoy the sunshine - indeed, despite some unfavourable personal memories from that time, weatherwise I'll always be fond of April 2021. I welcome another in 2022. It would be funny if after 30+ years of no real cold Aprils that we'd have two in a row. While I understand some concerns about night frosts causing damage (I do sympathise with the green thumbs), some posts in the past week have seemed so melodramatic it's unreal - the country will not be plunged into misery. We can definitely cope!

 

1996 and 2001 remind me of cold Aprils. I prefer warmer ones like 2020, as it moves us one step closer to summer.

[LetItSnow!]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

1996 and 2001 remind me of cold Aprils. I prefer warmer ones like 2020, as it moves us one step closer to summer.

April 1996 was actually the sole warmer than average month between December '95 and May '96 - barely. It appears there were some warm southerly influences around the 15th to 22nd - Trevor Harley writes there was a max of 24°C on the 22nd, however there was cold weather early and late, taking us into the remarkably cold May.

[Guest]

One more decent day, the world just looks a better place under clear skies doesn’t it. While the outlook is particularly unpalatable hopefully this spell gets the absolute cac out the way before Easter. Although I have a feeling April is going to be an absolute stinker on par with May last year. 

[RJBingham]

21 minutes ago, Alderc said:

One more decent day, the world just looks a better place under clear skies doesn’t it. While the outlook is particularly unpalatable hopefully this spell gets the absolute cac out the way before Easter. Although I have a feeling April is going to be an absolute stinker on par with May last year. 

Miserable here today, in sharp contrast to yesterday, hopefully the grot will soon pass, looking forward to some proper warmth 26c+ would be nice 

[Sunny76]

10 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

April 1996 was actually the sole warmer than average month between December '95 and May '96 - barely. It appears there were some warm southerly influences around the 15th to 22nd - Trevor Harley writes there was a max of 24°C on the 22nd, however there was cold weather early and late, taking us into the remarkably cold May.

May 2021 was pretty bleak, just like 96.

[damianslaw]

11 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

April 1996 was actually the sole warmer than average month between December '95 and May '96 - barely. It appears there were some warm southerly influences around the 15th to 22nd - Trevor Harley writes there was a max of 24°C on the 22nd, however there was cold weather early and late, taking us into the remarkably cold May.

At the risk of this thread being lets talk about April snowfalls of yesteryear - I've started a thread to discuss such things in the Historic Weather thread!

[Nick L]

12 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

1996 and 2001 remind me of cold Aprils. I prefer warmer ones like 2020, as it moves us one step closer to summer.

Shame that one was wasted with us all being trapped at home. Certainly very little sign of this April being anything pleasant. Let's just hope May isn't the car crash that it was last year.

Edited March 27, 2022 by Nick L

[richie3846]

40 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Shame that one was wasted with us all being trapped at home. Certainly very little sign of this April being anything pleasant. Let's just hope May isn't the car crash that it was last year.

Over the last few days on the mod thread, the discussion has been turbulent, reflecting the inability for the models to forecast more than 10 minutes ahead with any accuracy! I wouldn't write April off yet, literally anything can happen, and with a large amount of uncertainty, there's absolutely no way anyone could reliably indicate what April may bring.

[LetItSnow!]

Quote

Saw some mentions of winter 1999/2000 a little while ago and I can't help but notice the uncanny similarities between that general period and the one we're in now. September 1999/2021 both were exceptionally warm and while the Octobers differed (1999 being average) they both had dry and mild Novembers. December 1999 was much cooler but January and February have been very similar, even down to the fact that January 2000 ended with exceptionally mild SWerlies while '22 saw the same except on NYD; February 2000 was also very similar, mild and westerly. You can even spot similaries before this, both had warm and dry Julys with the same C.E.T. (SE excluded in '21) followed by cooler Augusts (though August 1999 was a lot wetter).

If the pattern holds up for another month then a mild, dry and sunny March would be on the way. Of course from April 2000 onwards the true nature of that year began to show its hand and overall was an extremely wet year.

I posted this back in February and to somewhat of a surprise, the similaries have held up! March 2000 was fine, mild and dry as has this month and gave way to a cold and wet first week to April. This time though, it's looking a fair bit beefier than early April 2000 with some of the charts I've seen recently. When will these uncanny similarities end? Meanwhile, enjoy a cold and wet April, apparently! 

[damianslaw]

7 hours ago, LetItSnow! said:

I posted this back in February and to somewhat of a surprise, the similaries have held up! March 2000 was fine, mild and dry as has this month and gave way to a cold and wet first week to April. This time though, it's looking a fair bit beefier than early April 2000 with some of the charts I've seen recently. When will these uncanny similarities end? Meanwhile, enjoy a cold and wet April, apparently! 

Can't say I would want a repeat of April to Dec 2000. A generally very unsettled period culminating in a very wet Autumn and December. The summer wasnt a complete wash out but it lacked much in the way of warmth.

Another year springs to mind to an extent is 2012.. equally if not worse fayre followed on from the warm sunny March. Last 4 months of 2011 some echoes with 2021 as well.. 

 

[Benny123]

1 hour ago, DIS1970 said:

The local forecast of any snowfall on Wed/Thur has almost been eradicated by the BBC now, so playing it on a day to day basis - or hourly.

latest National forecast still positive about a 'wintry mess' across the Midlands/Central Eng on Wed night.. even slightly further West by the looks of things. 

[Scandinavian High.]

Very interesting met office update keeping eye on south east