Summer 2022 Chat

[Mapantz]

A brilliant spell of weather at the moment, fireworks on the quay tonight, and beverage in hand.

[ChannelThunder]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

A truly lovely evening. Still 27C after a max of 30.5C 

Felt so weird earlier walking out of an air conditioned supermarket into a wall of heat. For a second I thought I was abroad.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Today was probably one of the best days of the summer. Sparkling clear blue skies, low humidity and just a light easterly wind. It felt truly continental in feel.
It does feel like that this spell will probably tip this summer into being a great one. At the very least 2022 will probably deliver 3 above par months. 

[snefnug]

55 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A brilliant spell of weather at the moment, fireworks on the quay tonight, and beverage in hand.

Hope fireworks aimed to sea. Hope your beverage suitably chilled.   Here in n.e Wales, we are,  apart from the harvested fields and moorlands still green.  however those fields and moorlands tinder dry and moorland fires beginning to break out. 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Now i know why "Heat" is in heathrow.  38c on Saturday

[Captain Shortwave]

I’m going to be honest, I think those temperatures for Heathrow might be a little over cooked.

[danm]

I’ve been up in Scotland since Saturday and today we had glorious, warm and sunny weather in the Highlands. 25°c in Aviemore. 

I’ve been up to this part of the world many times during August since I was a kid and I don’t remember a week here where there has been virtually no rain.

[Snowy L]

From today it's hotter back home than it is here. It's actually a bit cool here  averaging 33C and very windy during the aftrnooon.

[Earthshine]

At this point even if summer weather ends next week I won't feel like we've missed out this year.  In the SW we've seen many days above 23°C and this current spell is fantastic.  September also seems to deliver surprises in recent years so hopefully we get some more lovely sunshine.

[OddSpot]

This current spell is bringing some wonderful sunsets

Off the Isle of Wight webcam last night

          

Edited August 11, 2022 by OddSpot

[damianslaw]

Revel in the high summer feeling.. last vestiges of it, all gone by Monday for another year. By mid August the late summer feel takes hold whatever the weather is doing..

[kold weather]

12 hours ago, 38.7°C said:

Now i know why "Heat" is in heathrow.  38c on Saturday

Agreed.

I don't see a single model even in that ballpark so I'm struggling to see where that is being pulled from?

At least when the beeb went crazy with the 41-42c, there was some slight model support. This time, I'm not seeing it frankly.

With that being said I DO think we may have a shot at getting another top 10 temperature at the very top end of what is realistic.

[Nick L]

There's no chance of 38C out of this spell. No idea where that's being plucked from.

[Snowy L]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

There's no chance of 38C out of this spell. No idea where that's being plucked from.

BBC saying 37C on their news article about the heatwave.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

BBC saying 37C on their news article about the heatwave.

They kept pedalling 42/43C back in July with very little support from this away from GFS and occasionally UKV.

35C will likely be the max. There is virtually no model support for anything higher than this.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Nick L

[Snowy L]

Just now, Nick L said:

They kept pedalling 42/43C back in July with very little support from this away from GFS and occasionally UKV.

35C will likely be the max. There is virtually no model support for anything higher than this.

Yes I'm thinking they're a degree or two too high, based on last few days.

[Earthshine]

6 minutes ago, Nick L said:

They kept pedalling 42/43C back in July with very little support from this away from GFS and occasionally UKV.

35C will likely be the max. There is virtually no model support for anything higher than this.

Yep Cardiff looks like it's in for a shot for 35°C which would be a new all time record

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Earthshine said:

Yep Cardiff looks like it's in for a shot for 35°C which would be a new all time record

I think that's really pushing it too, I can't see 35C anywhere in Wales from this spell.

[reef]

Just passed 100 hours of sunshine this month and its only the 11th. We're on course for all three summer months to be above 200 hours for the first time since 1989.

Thats following both January and February with more than 100 hours each and 194 hours or more in each of the three Spring months. 

If the rest of the year has exactly average sunshine then we'll finish on 1871 hours. That'd beat the 2003 record by 29 hours.

 

[Earthshine]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

I think that's really pushing it too, I can't see 35C anywhere in Wales from this spell.

Met Office reckons 34C in Bute Park tomorrow.  Any reason why 35C definitely won't be reached?  I know BBC often overestimates but if anything Met Office undercooks temperatures in these parts.

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, Earthshine said:

Met Office reckons 34C in Bute Park tomorrow.  Any reason why 35C definitely won't be reached?  I know BBC often overestimates but if anything Met Office undercooks temperatures in these parts.

The only model going for it is GFS which overcooked things by 2-3C back in July. Even UKV which often throws out overly high temperatures is only nibbling at 34C pretty much on the English border.

[reef]

GFS is going for 32-33C today in central areas so we'll get a good idea how far off it is. Quite a few sites are already at 29-30C so it might be quite close.

A lot will depend on the strength of the wind. Anything more than a light breeze and it'll be curtains except perhaps further west.

Edit: I will say though the models have been very poor for minima in this setup. GFS said 16C minimum for us this morning and the Met even went for 14C. We actually dropped to 11C. Quite a few mornings have been like this too.

Edited August 11, 2022 by reef

[kold weather]

19 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The only model going for it is GFS which overcooked things by 2-3C back in July. Even UKV which often throws out overly high temperatures is only nibbling at 34C pretty much on the English border.

The GFS does have a bit of a warm bias, tohugh that does reduce over time as it gets closer to the time. At say 24hrs out during the July hot spell the GFS was still a little high but it wasn't drastically removed from reality, it went for a 41c locally about 24hrs out from the event after showing occasional 42c on some runs very locally. It was based on the broad spread of temperatures probably 0.5-1c too high in the end, not all that drastic truth be told.

With that being said I do feel like your right that Wales won't quite get there, I mean you can't rule out a local station perhaps nudging 35 rounded up but a true 35c seems a tall order IMO.

I think a max temperature of 35.x is a reasonable expectation here, I'm not seeing any hints of anything beyond perhaps a localised 36c maybe in the hottest of spots. 

Today being the first properly hot day should give an indication of where the models are at with their handling on things, my guess is the ECM again is 
considerably too cool (as per the last 3 heatwaves this year) and the GFS is probably too warm, but to a lesser degree than the ECM is too cool.

 

[Sunny76]

Summer 2022 has definitely joined 2018 as a decent sunny summer and a nice hot one.

We just need a decent storm to make it a classic.

So glad August is providing us with summery weather for a change.

[FetchCB]

This came up in my playlist just now. Lyrics seem apt