Summer 2022 Chat

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I must admit that I'm a little perplexed by all the competitive bickering over just how warm it'll be codswallop. . . 34, 35, 36 or 37C? Does anyone really care? Will a couple of degrees either way change people's lives in any meaningful way?

But, whatever, I'm just glad I don't have to toe-the-line to any employer. And that's just the way I like it!

 

There is no bickering? It's a weather forum and we're trying to work out how 37C is being conjured up. With the BBC overestimating in the last heatwave too I think it's a valid discussion.

The BBC is increasingly tabloidy and sadly it's now creeping into their weather reporting. It also risks giving the climate conspiracy morons more ammo ("if you're overestimating by 2C now then why should we believe the 50 year predictions" etc.), and nobody wants that. 

Edited August 12, 2022 by Nick L

[Methuselah]

Well, of course there isn't!

[Guest]

It’s not overly hot, 8-12weeks of this plus a 6-8 TS dumping 50mm each time would be perfect every summer 

[Earthshine]

I think working out the maximum temperature to the exact degree (whether that is 36.3 or 36.9 Celsius for example) is really pushing the models to their absolute limits.  We are limited by the density of observations and the fact that all physical models of complex systems make approximations (due to to time and efficiency).  Saying with any certainty that a particular temperature definitely will/will not be reached is a bit bizarre.  Models are models, they are not crystal balls.  Even the most accurate operators used (whether that be observation operators or physics models) will have discretisation errors, etc.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s not overly hot, 8-12weeks of this plus a 6-8 TS dumping 50mm each time would be perfect every summer 

I bet to differ. Once it gets past 32c I start flagging lol

[dryfie]

 

"....but there's never much we can do about mother nature..."

I'm afraid that there's many who believe that we've already done far too much about Mother Nature

[Weather26]

8 minutes ago, dryfie said:

 

"....but there's never much we can do about mother nature..."

I'm afraid that there's many who believe that we've already done far too much about Mother Nature

Surely we've done too little with Mother Nature this summer.

[Methuselah]

And here's the latest from the UK Met who are, IMO, by far the best source we have, here in the UK:

 

[Earthshine]

18 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And here's the latest from the UK Met who are, IMO, by far the best source we have, here in the UK:

 

Cardiff record gone there.

[sunnijim]

3rd day in a row that we have passed 32c a mile or so inland of the coast here in Sussex.

Quite notable for a coastal location.

NE winds ruling out any moderation from the sea on the South coast.

Infact as hot on the coast as the London suburb of Lewisham this afternoon according to my recording gear.

Noted 35c around Gatwick on the car thermometer driving down the M23 and 36c just 20 miles further South.

Obviously tarmac could be skewing the real readings there.

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by sunnijim

[damianslaw]

6 hours ago, Nick L said:

I see the BBC are still banging the 37C drum for the next few days. If anything, the models are a shade cooler with the usually baking hot UKV struggling to even force out 35!

Considering all the climate conspiracy garbage we've seen over recent weeks (e.g. those offended by map colours) it's really not a good look to be exaggerating maximum temperature forecasts.

I think it's very misleading to show 36 and 37 degrees on the map.. when reality only the odd spot may achieve it, yet looking at the map many underneath it may think it will occur. Much better would be to show average maxes, and then a list of likely hotspots.. 

2 hours ago, Bradowl said:

I think they might have over done it with today's predicted temperatures here in South Yorkshire, 28.5c in my garden at moment, doesn't feel that hot sat in shade with a bit of a breeze blowing. 

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I think they are not factoring in the shift in wind prediction, predominantly easterly which will knock temps somewhat further east.

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

It’s not overly hot, 8-12weeks of this plus a 6-8 TS dumping 50mm each time would be perfect every summer 

Bit hot for me, I’d rather 22-28°C for 8-12 weeks, plus those storms As long as there’s lots of sunshine 

Another lovely summer’s day here in Prague, 25°C and mainly sunny, with light winds. Perfick

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The Met office has extended the level 3 Heat-Health Alert until 9am Tuesday for all of England

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/heat-health/?tab=heatHealth&season=normal#?tab=heatHealth

 

Not sure warranted on Monday here at least.. benchmark for warnings nowadays seems increasingly  much lower than yesteryear.. yellow warnings when 10mm rain forecast or a cm of snow. Soon we will just have permanent warnings because there is some weather about! 

 

Edited August 12, 2022 by damianslaw

[MarkM]

I'm a volunteer ( but basically full time ) groundsman for a cricket club in North Lincs and this has been physically the hardest summer I can remember, trying to retain moisture in the square is almost impossible and yet without it you cannot prepare a match strip which is both playable and safe. Walking behind a large petrol powered mower or sitting high up on a 2 ton roller for hours in 30+ degree heat is draining to say the least. The outfield has had one cut in five weeks due to hardly any growth , normally it's twice a week so that has saved some diesel at least. Temperatures out in the middle where there is no shade and the sunlight reflects up off a bleached white strip have been unbelievable. I'm old enough to remember 1976 and I know we've had other hot spells but this one seems to have dragged on for longer with very little relief. 

Mark 

12 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Not sure warranted on Monday here at least.. benchmark for warnings nowadays seems increasingly  much lower than yesteryear.. yellow warnings when 10mm rain forecast or a cm of snow. Soon we will just have permanent warnings because there is some weather about! 

 

I know I heard that they raised the trigger points for what is classed as a heatwave, did they do the same for warnings ? 

[damianslaw]

8 minutes ago, MarkM said:

I'm a volunteer ( but basically full time ) groundsman for a cricket club in North Lincs and this has been physically the hardest summer I can remember, trying to retain moisture in the square is almost impossible and yet without it you cannot prepare a match strip which is both playable and safe. Walking behind a large petrol powered mower or sitting high up on a 2 ton roller for hours in 30+ degree heat is draining to say the least. The outfield has had one cut in five weeks due to hardly any growth , normally it's twice a week so that has saved some diesel at least. Temperatures out in the middle where there is no shade and the sunlight reflects up off a bleached white strip have been unbelievable. I'm old enough to remember 1976 and I know we've had other hot spells but this one seems to have dragged on for longer with very little relief. 

Mark 

I know I heard that they raised the trigger points for what is classed as a heatwave, did they do the same for warnings ? 

Not sure, but we are forecast rain and thunder and max 23 degrees Monday, Cumbria should be removed at least.

[SunnyPlease]

This Summer still hasn’t surpassed 2018 for me, but it’s close. I’d say it’s second to 2018 since 1976. 
 

If it stays like this until the end of August though, it would have claims as the second best since 1976 or at least tied with 2018

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

This Summer still hasn’t surpassed 2018 for me, but it’s close. I’d say it’s second to 2018 since 1976. 
 

If it stays like this until the end of August though, it would have claims as the second best since 1976 or at least tied with 2018

I've commented before but in the Lake District it's similiar to 2003 so far, its behind 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1995, 2006 and 2018.

[mb018538]

Highest temp today is 34.5c at Wiggonholt again. Looks like 36c+ is nailed on for the weekend.

[SunnyPlease]

11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've commented before but in the Lake District it's similiar to 2003 so far, its behind 1975, 1976, 1983, 1984, 1989, 1995, 2006 and 2018.

Yeah, really depends where you are. I’m strictly talking about the south east though (Cambridge). I’d say it’s approaching 2018 territory (2018 started in June but ended earlier at the start of August). 
 

I’d say it has been drier than even 2018 here, but has been slightly less consistent (poor patch at the end of July, and June was very average) 

On the other hand, we didn’t have a record breaker in 2018. 
 

I still think it lags behind 2018 overall, but is easily the best aside from that year since 1976. 2013,2006,2003, 1995 and 1983 were all largely one month pony’s. 
 

Sustained periods of settled, dry and warm weather such as this are very very rare 

Edited August 12, 2022 by SunnyPlease

[mb018538]

7 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

Yeah, really depends where you are. I’m strictly talking about the south east though (Cambridge). I’d say it’s approaching 2018 territory (2018 started in June but ended earlier at the start of August). 
 

I’d say it has been drier than even 2018 here, but has been slightly less consistent (poor patch at the end of July, and June was very average) 

On the other hand, we didn’t have a record breaker in 2018. 
 

I still think it lags behind 2018 overall, but is easily the best aside from that year since 1976. 2013,2006,2003, 1995 and 1983 were all largely one month pony’s. 
 

Sustained periods of settled, dry and warm weather such as this are very very rare 

Yep, I think the addition of this hot first half of august has put 2022 only behind 2018 here now for most consistent summers in my lifetime. The dryness, repeated bouts of heat and plenty of sunshine mean it’s got to go second here at least.

[sundog]

Irelands record temperature for August broken today. 31.7c . Was 31.5c from 1995.

That's 2 months in a row irelands record monthly temperatures have been broken.  

Edited August 12, 2022 by sundog

[iand61]

35 minutes ago, SunnyPlease said:

Yeah, really depends where you are. I’m strictly talking about the south east though (Cambridge). I’d say it’s approaching 2018 territory (2018 started in June but ended earlier at the start of August). 
 

I’d say it has been drier than even 2018 here, but has been slightly less consistent (poor patch at the end of July, and June was very average) 

On the other hand, we didn’t have a record breaker in 2018. 
 

I still think it lags behind 2018 overall, but is easily the best aside from that year since 1976. 2013,2006,2003, 1995 and 1983 were all largely one month pony’s. 
 

Sustained periods of settled, dry and warm weather such as this are very very rare 

I think it depends on where you are when comparing summers.

Up here, the last few days have lifted this summer into the decent category where as up to then it had been a two day heatwave in July along with a couple more efforts than could be counted in hours rather than days.

it has been fairly dry though and river and reservoir levels are very low but the grass is still predominately green and it’s certainly been nowhere near the drought conditions further south and east.

Up here in the South Pennines, 1995 was our version of the south’s 2022, admittedly not the record breaking temperatures of this summer but dry, hot and sunny almost constantly from late June until the end of August and a water shortage far more critical than what we have up here now.

The shock to the system of large conurbations being within a week of completely running out of water and thousands of tankers carrying drinking water led to the massive investment in transfer pipelines in Yorkshire and the north west that has so far largely prevented issues this year.

maybe those same massive investments will need to be considered in the south and east after this summer.

[Bradley in Kent]

The rating for this Summer is now hanging on the last half of August, historically not a reliable time of year. 

If we can manage one more warm spell >25c after this hot spell and before the 31st, Summer 2022 will surely be a top 10 at least for SE England.

Nationally I don't think it'll go down as historic, the North and West have been closer to average.

The true belter needs the whole UK to have 'hottest Summer'. Just shows local vs national stats!

[A Face like Thunder]

BBC News this evening had a piece from Box Hill near Dorking and, as a 'ex-southern softie' who knows the area well, what a terrible sight it was.

1976 - drought declared and Minister for Drought appointed leading to the heavens opening shortly after.

2022 - drought declared, no Minister for Drought (yet), and I think we can guess what's going to happen in the next few days!  

 

[Wold Topper]

47 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I think it depends on where you are when comparing summers.

Up here, the last few days have lifted this summer into the decent category where as up to then it had been a two day heatwave in July along with a couple more efforts than could be counted in hours rather than days.

it has been fairly dry though and river and reservoir levels are very low but the grass is still predominately green and it’s certainly been nowhere near the drought conditions further south and east.

Up here in the South Pennines, 1995 was our version of the south’s 2022, admittedly not the record breaking temperatures of this summer but dry, hot and sunny almost constantly from late June until the end of August and a water shortage far more critical than what we have up here now.

The shock to the system of large conurbations being within a week of completely running out of water and thousands of tankers carrying drinking water led to the massive investment in transfer pipelines in Yorkshire and the north west that has so far largely prevented issues this year.

maybe those same massive investments will need to be considered in the south and east after this summer.

My uncle, stepdad and step brother were on the tankers on that job in 1995, it was a massive undertaking, tachographs and driving hours were wavered and some drivers earned big wages whilst it lasted. As you say, the penny dropped and a massive investment in transfer pipelines was undertaken!

Edited August 12, 2022 by Wold Topper