Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, Scorcher said:

Some could be surprised by how late the maxes for today happen. With such dry air we should see temps climbing even after 5pm. I think GFS is going to be pretty much on the money.

36’C so far in Cambridge. Come on GFS!

[Cambrian]

Wow. This is it. What a momentous event to live through and share. It’s down to nowcasting now. I hope this helps…..

At 820ft in the middle of Wales, mountain valley (i.e. microclimate, but not a place associated with being at all hot), behind a Stevenson screen with Davis kit (I call it CWT (TCC))

15/07/2022 min 6.5 

15/07/2022 max 20.0 

16/07/2022 min 8.1

16/07/2022 max 26.8

17/07/2022 min 13.0

17/07/2022 max 28.7

18/07/2022 min 11.6

18/07/2022 at 13.00 BST 32.3 degrees, 45% humidity, dew point 19 degrees 

It’s galloping. That’s a new site maximum record (since 2003), previous record - 30.7 degrees 22 July, 2021

And here’s the relevant synoptic. What an innocuous looking fax chart, gentle southeasterly coming up from western France, but with around 590 dam heights on the GFS. T850 around 22 degrees. And there we are. 

  

Just hit 33.0. Best of luck guys, see you all on the other side. 

[Ben Sainsbury]

UKV 9z for late this afternoon/evening is marginally warmer than UKV 6z, which is good for record-breaking temps as I'd imagine new data/observations have been fed into the 9z run. So 38C is increasingly likely and a little more confident we may break our record than I was earlier.

Edited July 18, 2022 by Ben Sainsbury

[Lukesluckybunch]

Currently 35c here in bicester...can see it climbing further perhaps to 37/38c..the hotspots for today and tomorrow look further east..places such as Bedfordshire cambridgshire..up towards Lincolnshire

[tight isobar]

Just nailed 36c.. but some shallow cloud cover. Here @ Uxbridge-. the record is in the balance..@ Wales looks to have just jumped the fence @35:3..@ Wales record gone!!!@ summer 2022.

Edited July 18, 2022 by tight isobar

[Lukesluckybunch]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Just nailed 36c.. but some shallow cloud cover. Here @ Uxbridge-. the record is in the balance..@ Wales looks to have just jumped the fence @35:3..@ Wales record gone!!!

Do you agree,that tomorrow is the day when we are likely see the highest temperatures?

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Do you agree,that tomorrow is the day when we are likely see the highest temperatures?

> yes..

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

> yes..

I see mainly 38/39 today..tomorrow could be in the 40-42c range!

[Mizzle]

Not sure how to copy twitter links properly but WOW! Today's temp charts look oh so very close to where the Met Office thought we would be in 2050!

 

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

Not sure how to copy twitter links properly but WOW! Today's temp charts look oh so very close to where the Met Office thought we would be in 2050!

 

Very unrealistic. Heat more west than east and by then we’ll have table mountain style cloud magically appear every time a record is within shout...

[MATTWOLVES 3]

54 minutes ago, Cambrian said:

Wow. This is it. What a momentous event to live through and share. It’s down to nowcasting now. I hope this helps…..

At 820ft in the middle of Wales, mountain valley (i.e. microclimate, but not a place associated with being at all hot), behind a Stevenson screen with Davis kit (I call it CWT (TCC))

15/07/2022 min 6.5 

15/07/2022 max 20.0 

16/07/2022 min 8.1

16/07/2022 max 26.8

17/07/2022 min 13.0

17/07/2022 max 28.7

18/07/2022 min 11.6

18/07/2022 at 13.00 BST 32.3 degrees, 45% humidity, dew point 19 degrees 

It’s galloping. That’s a new site maximum record (since 2003), previous record - 30.7 degrees 22 July, 2021

And here’s the relevant synoptic. What an innocuous looking fax chart, gentle southeasterly coming up from western France, but with around 590 dam heights on the GFS. T850 around 22 degrees. And there we are. 

  

Just hit 33.0. Best of luck guys, see you all on the other side. 

I don't like it mate when you say I'll see you on the other side...makes me feel we are all waiting to meet the grim reaper due to extreme heat just kidding.

Thetford is gerrin close now...come on me beauty let's beat this today and take the pressure off on Tuedsay.

Positively chilling 35.5c here  

[johnholmes]

37.1 C on my Davis in the back garden, never had it so high, tomorrow probably a bit higher, roll on Wednesday, thank gawd it is for only 2 days in this area.

[snowblizzard]

37 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

37.1 C on my Davis in the back garden, never had it so high, tomorrow probably a bit higher, roll on Wednesday, thank gawd it is for only 2 days in this area.

Yep, we'll have a flying start tomorrow John as temps are not expected to fall much below 23c overnight! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Haverhill at 38C...its within range....any members from around this area?

[wellington boot]

16 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Yep, we'll have a flying start tomorrow John as temps are not expected to fall much below 23c overnight! 

We'll need that flying start down here. Near Tunbridge Wells we have struggled to get much past 33C. Think we are just a bit too close to the channel to compete in these circumstances, despite uppers >20C, but with a warmer start tomorrow we might still hit upper thirties.

[qwertyK]

Not so bad here in S.Essex. 35-36C, even went for a quick run. Highly doubt anywhere today has hit 40C, maybe tommorow though. 

[tesaro]

11 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Haverhill at 38C...its within range....any members from around this area?

My Home Town. Fortunately, I’m 1300ft up in Exmoor this Week. Not that it’s overly cool up here Today.

[johnholmes]

37.8 C now my max, so 100F for the first time in this area

[snowblizzard]

14 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

We'll need that flying start down here. Near Tunbridge Wells we have struggled to get much past 33C. Think we are just a bit too close to the channel to compete in these circumstances, despite uppers >20C, but with a warmer start tomorrow we might still hit upper thirties.

I recon we will definitely hit high thirties tomorrow, possibly 37c?

The record high temperatures were always modelled further North, i.e, London and Central/Eastern England

[Sky Full]

Wrong thread…..

Edited July 18, 2022 by Sky Full

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

UKV 9z for late this afternoon/evening is marginally warmer than UKV 6z, which is good for record-breaking temps as I'd imagine new data/observations have been fed into the 9z run. So 38C is increasingly likely and a little more confident we may break our record than I was earlier.

We’ve surpassed 38C already here. No official stations in the vicinity though. 

[davehsug]

18 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

We’ve surpassed 38C already here. No official stations in the vicinity though. 

Nantwich?

[Weather-history]

I guess the mods are having  a siesta...lol...

 

[Stargazer]

Hawarden has apparently reached 37.1, a big jump for the Welsh record.

Back on topic: for tomorrow, as the models stand right now the range for the absolute maximum looks like 38 (ECM, from Yorkshire down to the Wash) to 42 (UKV, South Yorkshire area and GFS, Lincolnshire).

[Had Worse]

Shower to my NW