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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

nick sussex

By nick sussex
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted

Has anyone got the latest verification stats for all the main models?

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 hour ago, That ECM said:

Come on ecm develop us a Greenland high at 192 this evening please.😄🙏🙏🙏

Probably not quiet but a step in the right direction.👏👏🤣

Could contain: Accessories, Art, Pattern, Graphics

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

ECM rubber stamping a rough day for cold weather fans.

Starting look difficult to see cold and snow to low levels in England for the big day on that basis but lets be honest there is still plenty of variability and scope for change for the better in the output, it just needs to happen soon

And!

There is always the pub run!

Let's hope tomorrow sees the cold return and UKMO give us some hope as we are running out of time now.

Edited by Mucka
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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
Posted

That old adage, 'reliable timeframe is short, 96 hrs tops', never more apt than now.. fine margins for the christmas period, the forcing is from the north, but the trough is complex and struggling to ease eastwards, this evening's models won't leave a clear conclusion. By Wednesday we should be much clearer how things may pan out for the weekend, suspect a half way house between GFS, UKMO and ECM, the low won't hang back quite as much as being shown by ECM, but nor will it cleanly exit eastwards as shown by recent GFS runs, temps average for most away from the north, but there does seem a clear path that the trough will eventually move eastwards post christmas followed by colder conditions from the north with signal for heights to build to the NW, ECM is finally suggesting this from 27th but not the same extent as GFS. 

All very messy and complex!

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