Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[January Snowstorm]

What's not to like about gfs.

Full blown Greenland high!! Only one way from there, back into the freezer.

[Lukesluckybunch]

The gfs manages to turn Greenland green again..haha somehow..just need a shortwave to run over the high now,to help it move northwest!

Edited December 19, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

Nothing has been called right because it has not happened yet!

Plenty more water to go under the bridge yet.

 

1 minute ago, Tidal Wave said:

Nothing has been called right because it has not happened yet!

Plenty more water to go under the bridge yet.

Ok.. but can we agree it would have been better if 12z ukm  and gfs had not followed the icon 12z

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 12z booooom

[nick sussex]

The UKMO churns out the same Scrooge run as it’s earlier 00hrs .

The GFS looks like its going to jump ship then salvages proceedings but has a different set up over ne Canada compared to the 06 hrs run .

 

[tight isobar]

Delete ya Netflix/ now tv/ amazon etc.. come to Netweather model- output discussion.. The drama is incomparable!!!!!..

[Guest]

Just now, TSNWK said:

 

Ok.. but can we agree it would have been better if 12z ukm  and gfs had not followed the icon 12z

Depends what you are wanting!

[Tim Bland]

Panic not..just a slight delay, snow showers pushing down from North west by 27th 

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The UKMO churns out the same Scrooge run as it’s earlier 00hrs .

The GFS looks like its going to jump ship then salvages proceedings but has a different set up over ne Canada compared to the 06 hrs run .

 

 

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Delete ya Netflix/ now tv/ amazon etc.. come to Netweather model- output discussion.. The drama is incomparable!!!!!..

It’s great.. a nice distraction… 

[Mark wheeler]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Panic not..just a slight delay, snow showers pushing down from North west by 27th 

Yayy snow for my Birthday incoming.

[Derecho]

GFS betting that a Greenland High will intensify to the extent it'll win the tug of war against heights further south. Either GFS is picking up on something or it has got this wrong! 

 

[That ECM]

T192. I understand why people are interested in the 25th but for me broad scale that’s two good runs in a row.

[nick sussex]

The GEM has also been drinking at the Scrooge Inn .

Its 12 hrs run though is vastly different over Greenland compared to its 00hrs.

 

[phil nw.]

GFS determined to develop that Atlantic ridge again.

A full blown Greenland high would be a game changer and put us into another decent cold spell.

The main development comes after Christmas so too soon to hang your hat on yet.

[January Snowstorm]

Which model have we always said is best over Greenland area??

Yep gfs for Greenland and ecm for scandi highs

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

GFS betting that a Greenland High will intensify to the extent it'll win the tug of war against heights further south. Either GFS is picking up on something or it has got this wrong! 

 

My guess would be it's got it wrong..because it wasn't as good in early stages

[tight isobar]

Let’s make use- of these needle pain heights! .. all jokes aside, it’s still an open book from Friday onwards.. and the possibility’s are damn good

[Tim Bland]

B-E-A utifull! 

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Which model have we always said is best over Greenland area??

Yep gfs for Greenland and ecm for scandi highs

Agree an age old argument.. but the gfs- is Atlantic Synoptics king..

[Mike Poole]

GFS T192, what’s not to like?

I think two things are important from what I’ve seen today, an end is in sight to the mess of lows in the Atlantic producing a southwesterly, but maybe not in time for Christmas Day for the south!  Secondly, an increasing signal in FI to build useful high latitude blocking, details to be worked out!  May be in response to the MJO, maybe easier to build these with the Arctic high exiting the picture?

[TSNWK]

Just now, Lukesluckybunch said:

My guess would be it's got it wrong..because it wasn't as good in early stages

I think I agree with this.. got overly excited this morning and is now backing away and hoping nobodies notice.. but! This is netweather model watchers society and we don’t miss a thing!

[frosty ground]

Can’t wait for the pressure ensembles in Rome to see if it’s an outlier or not.

but seriously there is to much rush to judgement on what will pass when we don’t even know what has been

 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What's not to like about gfs.

Full blown Greenland high!! Only one way from there, back into the freezer.

Oh there is lots to like about it and tbh it’s a step closer to the amplified members in the 06z gefs than the 06z op was. The only issue there is that most of those gefs members kept the low to our west and we are got sou’westers …. Gfs op making baby steps back to a different place, run by run perhaps ??

[Day 10]

Lol, good luck being a forecaster for the foreseeable....

Turning colder

No, turning milder

Hang on, no, turning colder again

[Singularity]

Much flatter GEM 00z which would actually have meant a notably colder outcome for much of the UK had it not developed an extra low just east of Iceland. The polar jet rapidly undercuts the high over Greenland on this run which gives it less time to gather strength beforehand. Results from a different handling of the intense storm over NE N. America to the GFS and UKM 12z runs. Could be right but odds-against at face value.

GFS 12z is showing us a halfway house of sorts where a bit more vorticity is left behind to our west but not so much as to become the dominant player for our weather.

UKM 12z again leaves a truckload to our west. Uncertainty remains very high!