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Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Posted
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
  • Location: Dwyrain Sir Gâr / Eastern Carmarthenshire 178m abs
Posted

Watch the GFS 12 upgrade further and then do a complete flip on the 00hrs only for the UKMO and ECM to come onboard. Almost certainly going head to head this week for a dramatic somewhat turbulent ride! 

Here’s my personal favourite for 850 hPa temps ❄️❄️❄️

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  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

My post yesterday about any cold later in December more likely than not to be transient:

GFS 06z: lol

Such a stark difference between the 00z and 06z it's almost laughable. The EPS has absolutely no interest in anything that amplified so for now I suspect we're seeing the 16.3v amplification bias at play. There's nothing to drive that level of amplification.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted

As I thought the op is very much at the bottom of the ens up to 192 and unless I am reading them wrong there are a fair few warmer options than the 0z. What makes me laugh is some of the ens have a lovely GL high and once again we are stuck in SWerlies. 🙄

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

GFS 06z/00z mean comparison 192h.  (hopefully it doesn't auto update)

If this is the correct movement of travel in FI then it is definitely the right direction for cold fans

gensnh-31-1-192.pnggensnh-31-1-204.png

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Def a growing trend for ridging into greeny around day 7/8  to stick around on the gefs but that op most likely taken a wrong fork around day 6/7. The 06z  gefs in general look to be less enthused at the op route at the day 7/9 timescale  

onto the 12z’s 

 

  • Like 5
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

6z gfes so far

Could contain: Chart

downward trend ...op and control with support..mean held back a little by higher ens although few in number...frigid just beat me to it..

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted
1 minute ago, Frigid said:

Many colder options now on the table.. OP and Control following the trend

Looking good 👍

Could contain: Chart

Trending colder but the Op certainly at the low end of the pack. My gut says the GFS will end up with egg on its face - both because the reload cycle is so rare and the background signals are so uninspiring in the medium-long term - but then again, that's what I thought over the summer when it first started pumping out 42c in London. Two weeks later I was walking across the Heath watching fires break across the SE in 40+ heat. So never say never...

  • Like 6
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted

Decent snow row for post Xmas on the 0z run.

Lets see if the 6z run improves on that!

Could contain: Chart, Line Chart

5 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Trending colder but the Op certainly at the low end of the pack. My gut says the GFS will end up with egg on its face - both because the reload cycle is so rare and the background signals are so uninspiring in the medium-long term - but then again, that's what I thought over the summer when it first started pumping out 42c in London. Two weeks later I was walking across the Heath watching fires break across the SE in 40+ heat. So never say never...

I wonder when the GFS will start showing temperatures below -20c over Scotland. 
 

And below -10c more widely across England.

  • Like 2
Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Saves hunting through the gefs for the “right”😂 chart eh?

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  • Like 7
Posted
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal and interesting weather including summer storms and winter snow
  • Location: Welwyn Garden City
Posted

Yes...crazy 6z run for cold from gfs..

Jff..noted that four times the minus 10 line pays the uk a visit during the run....

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...however i think the op has definately lost the plot towards the end of the month...hasnt it??

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..how low does it want to go??

  • Like 4
Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Yes...crazy 6z run for cold from gfs..

Jff..noted that four times the minus 10 line pays the uk a visit during the run....

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Map

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Person, Map

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...however i think the op has definately lost the plot towards the end of the month...hasnt it??

Could contain: Chart

..how low does it want to go??

Only a 15 degree 850 difference between the control and op at the end 😛

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Swineshead, Boston, Lincolnshire
Posted

Can I ask a question please? I know that the op run is at a higher resolution but heard the control isnt, so why do we always refer to the op and control in agreement, when we might as well say the op and perb 25 are in agreement? Genuine question

  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Frostbite1980 said:

Can I ask a question please? I know that the op run is at a higher resolution but heard the control isnt, so why do we always refer to the op and control in agreement, when we might as well say the op and perb 25 are in agreement? Genuine question

I believe the control uses the same starting data as the op. The other ens use slight tweaks to starting conditions. 
Happy to be corrected. 

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
  • Insightful 1
Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and dry, or very cold. See my profile for model trivia
  • Location: Dorset
Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

Well, we all know GFS 6z is never wrong at Day 10, right?

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Although GFS takes it to the extreme, it does have support from GEFS, and, contrary to what some are saying, from the EPS as well, including the EPS Control.

EPS Clusters 2, 4 and 6 go along with the Scandi/Iceland amplification that GFS has shown for a number of runs in a now.
Those clusters represent almost half the EPS.

To illustrate this, compared to the GFS 6z above, these two EPS members are not far off height-wise in the NE Atlantic.

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, Nature, Art

However, the De Bilt plume does not show much in the way of cold on the surface yet, but continues with average temperatures, in contrast to this mild week.
There is also that little fella dropping below -15c at 2m, stretching the y-axis. If anyone is still wondering what is meant with the word 'outlier,' well, here you go!

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  • Like 5
  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
Posted

It doesn’t look conclusive at all for the post Xmas period with the op firmly amongst the coldest members.

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  • Like 1
Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

A lot of  model runs to get through, but this is encouraging for early week 2.

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Winds likely to come from the north for a time with settled conditions developing after a more unsettled period that could include Christmas itself. The high is most likely to drift east and sink into Europe as seen later on.

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So a window for wintry showers because another spell of chilly and frosty conditions. It does look like we will see an Atlantic trough approach so potential blocking is going to come from high pressure building to the east. If we are lucky then an evolution towards new year of a Scandi high is plausible, but considered unlikely at this point.

The ECM is generally flatter and as such offers a briefer chillier period before we get a more north/south split that is milder than the GEFs.

image.thumb.gif.3634d6765c66f65a1a374c27154add30.gif   image.thumb.gif.84c68abf50b2f5259e8bb6d311201c0e.gif
 

So at the moment for wanting cold we want the GFS to be on the right track as this offers better short term and medium term potential.

  • Insightful 2
Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted

Final observation on the gfs 06z is that gfs would be reasonably well trusted in the Atlantic but not really over Scandinavia 

hence, even if gfs 12z runs with the same solution to our west, we would need to see either gem or ec pick it up and evolve it to our northeast  

  • Insightful 1
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