Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[Lukesluckybunch]

That low at 216 hoping it won't come too far North

[Nick F]

17 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

What's not to like about gfs.

Full blown Greenland high!! Only one way from there, back into the freezer.

Pretty similar to the 06z GFS with developing a block around Greenland early next week, just the 12z op slower to get the cold in and that big upper high over central and eastern med is rather annoying, because it means lows will try and spin in from the southwest preventing cold air shots from getting south for too long before mild air tries to push in from the southwest. Looks wintry for the north though, with some snow events.

All conjecture given model differences as early as the weekend. But will be a forecasting headache over the Festive Period with a lot of marginality and trying to forecast how far south and north the cold/mild boundary will move as it looks to fluctuate a bit with each low heading through.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Nick F

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

I can't see the gfs 12z being nearly as good,expect a big downgrade I think..also the ecm wasn't interested

Wow I really do despair at times..its hard enough trying to work out where a run is going frame by frame,without using some kind of psychic ability to makes claims that the next runs that ain't even run yet are gonna be poor!

Edited December 19, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[goosey007]

jff but m4 snow shield in full effect

 

Shields Down !!!! ....24/36 snow event ...if only

Edited December 19, 2022 by goosey007

[Tim Bland]

Please note this is not ‘just for fun’ and I’m almost certain the 12z GFS has the pattern nailed (*cough..Not) 

[northwestsnow]

GEM is on the cusp of bringing in a very cold NWly by day 10..

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Much flatter GEM 00z which would actually have meant a notably colder outcome for much of the UK had it not developed an extra low just east of Iceland. The polar jet rapidly undercuts the high over Greenland on this run which gives it less time to gather strength beforehand. Results from a different handling of the intense storm over NE N. America to the GFS and UKM 12z runs. Could be right but odds-against at face value.

GFS 12z is showing us a halfway house of sorts where a bit more vorticity is left behind to our west but not so much as to become the dominant player for our weather.

UKM 12z again leaves a truckload to our west. Uncertainty remains very high!

Gem is a very interesting run - also hemispherically.  Doesn’t fit with general guidance so not over thinking it 

 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

Rotation in sync.. surely late December bodes for the Scandinavia adventure!!.. .. Greenland initial format- will I hope be the key master.. as Iberia loses its grip .. And we start elevating to the north east..

[blizzard81]

Gfs has certainly developed a love in for a classic Griceland high. Attention seeking or is it onto something? Big question. 

[Rain All Night]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Rotation in sync.. surely late December bodes for the Scandinavia adventure!!.. .. Greenland initial format- will I hope be the key master.. as Iberia loses its grip .. And we start elevating to the north east..

What is that first chart? 

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEM is on the cusp of bringing in a very cold NWly by day 10..

Yes, GEM isn’t a complete loss. Would be interesting around new year. There is so much cold to our north we only need a small wedge around Greenland to drive it south 

[Mike Poole]

Come to Daddy!

Edited December 19, 2022 by Mike Poole

[blizzard81]

Some charts just don't need any commentary. 

[Snowmadsam]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Come to Daddy!

I guess the GFS is SOMETHING then, if you are cold inclined. Lets see where its sits in its Ens.

[Paul_1978]

12z GFS is turning into one of the great runs of all time! Coupled with today's MO update, let's hope it is onto something, but there's a big divergence amongst the models at the minute.

But hey, this is why we all love model watching right? The next chase is on!

[Eagle Eye]

The first meridional packet slowly moves East but the main worry is how the second one develops and hopefully it'll be more progressive. It renewed the Euro ridge and we see some slight WAA hence the cold doesn't hang around for long. Beyond that though, notice the formation of that 'packet' around 60W moving for 45W and the formation of the Greenland high properly as shown on the last few runs associated with that. For longer term cold prospects that'll probably be our main chance. 

If the 0-30E 2nd meridional packet is more progressive then we may not see the renewed WAA quite so strongly and the cold hangs along for longer but it's hard to tell whether it will be or not. Lots of interest going into the future and don't get annoyed if the cold can't get set in for a long term, sometimes, the weather just throws a few hundred spanners into the works.

Anyway, it should just delay the inevitable as long as the Greenland block stays in place as the latest GFS shows. GFS throwing out some build up to the New Year happiness at the moment, hope it gains more support from the other models.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[blizzard81]

Better mean compared to the 06z for Christmas. 

[MJB]

Can't complain eh 

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS is victory but UKMO certainly is not.

 

[That ECM]

Come on ecm develop us a Greenland high at 192 this evening please.

[nick sussex]

I’m going to start from the worse case scenario of the UKMO which means the only way is up ! It’s not been interested and has been horribly consistent. It’s day 7 does deliver a slither of hope , shame it blows up that low .

The GEM I’ve never rated and its huge change over Greenland between runs means it’s going into the cat litter tray .

The GFS is the horrible creature in the Poltergeist closet pretending to be Carol Anne’s friend  . As the mother  says in the film at one point , “don’t go into the light, stop where you are  “ ! ( One of my favourite horror  films although I hate that clown ).

The GFS seems to be determined to find a way to deliver and be popular in here . 

Don’t go into the light until that’s safe and other models are there to guide you home !

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

12z GFS is turning into one of the great runs of all time! Coupled with today's MO update, let's hope it is onto something, but there's a big divergence amongst the models at the minute.

But hey, this is why we all love model watching right? The next chase is on!

For sure Paul.

UKMO worries me however..

[Eagle Eye]

Now imagine this Atmospheric River keeping itself strong and mixing with cold air from let's say, the East(ish). You've then got yourself a GFS run on steroids.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Eagle Eye

[Daniel*]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs has certainly developed a love in for a classic Griceland high. Attention seeking or is it onto something? Big question. 

It’s interesting though the American model is not known for its love affair with Greenland highs, I tend to remember seeing them quite often at day 10 from European over years. The update to GFS might have changed things however.

[Mucka]

I mentioned this morning that GFS ensemble mean had shifter marginally toward UKMO with the Westernmost base of the trough being a little further W

After that 12z Op I fully expected that to continue but it is actually nudged it back E over the Xmas period and perhaps as a consequence Euro heights to the S of the UK are just slightly lower and the cold air marginally further S than the 06z mean for the big day.

Clear as mud I know

Edited December 19, 2022 by Mucka