Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cat amongst the pigeons time here. 

Even London has now a cluster heading towards -10. This is very much alive...

Watch this space!

It's a big menu and cold and snow are most definitely on it.

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by MATTWOLVES

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

ECM op is towards the top for Xmas day, but the spread is narrowing, not many make it to -5 at 850 now.

Mogreps still give some hope, but you feel the tide is turning against snow for Xmas.

Yeah the trend dosent appear to be our friend now gfs basically on its own ….be a miracle if it’s right now ….certainly for Xmas period ….but 27th onwards still to play for IMO…..wait matts mogreps post adds to the uncertainty can’t take much more of this

Edited December 19, 2022 by goosey007

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Disappointing snow row on the 12z ensembles compared to previous two  with more members going for mild options post Xmas.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,Lot’s and Lot’s of uncertainty from the chart’s this evening even in the Christmas period,it all comes down once again to that Greenland high does it intensify and push west which in turn  brings back winter with a vengeance to all of the U.K. lot’s going on and as Alex Deackon stated from the Met Office an intense Low pressure over the USA could increase the possibility of the Greenland high intensifying.

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Disappointing snow row on the 12z ensembles compared to previous two  with more members going for mild options post Xmas.

The whole hemispheric pattern is about to flatten out. Multiple longer range NWP tools are suggestive of this and people like Met4cast have given us an insight into models such as GLOSEA. I just don't see where any future amplification is coming from over the next few weeks.

Anything else is just wishing and hoping, but I do retain some optimism that we can see a Scandi HP take hold...we can get this even with a powerful tpv lobe to the NW but it's going to require rolling a double 6 and then some.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, CreweCold said:

The whole hemispheric pattern is about to flatten out. Multiple longer range NWP tools are suggestive of this and people like Met4cast have given us an insight into models such as GLOSEA. I just don't see where any future amplification is coming from over the next few weeks.

Anything else is just wishing and hoping, but I do retain some optimism that we can see a Scandi HP take hold...we can get this even with a powerful tpv lobe to the NW but it's going to require rolling a double 6 and then some.

Cold zonality

[LRD]

4 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Cat amongst the pigeons time here. 

Even London has now a cluster heading towards -10. This is very much alive...

Watch this space!

It's a big menu and cold and snow are most definitely on it.

 

From the 27th there looks to be 2 clusters, like on the GFS ensembles

This feels like it's developing/trending into an all or nothing situation. Next week will either be very cold or very mild it seems to me. No halfway house. Could be wrong and it could be that's exactly what we end up with. I'm sensing not, though

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Cold zonality

It's a possibility for sure and not something I'd turn my nose up at. However if we're to get that we cannot afford such interference from European heights...they will need to be supressed.

[legritter]

6 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Cat amongst the pigeons time here. 

Even London has now a cluster heading towards -10. This is very much alive...

Watch this space!

It's a big menu and cold and snow are most definitely on it.

 

I'LL PUT MY ORDER IN SNOOOOW ! Plus pigs in blankets with Stella cheers all .

[goosey007]

Just now, CreweCold said:

It's a possibility for sure and not something I'd turn my nose up at. However if we're to get that we cannot afford such interference from European heights...they will need to be supressed.

Jan 1984?

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's a possibility for sure and not something I'd turn my nose up at. However if we're to get that we cannot afford such interference from European heights...they will need to be supressed.

Again euro heights always a nagging issue as per my earlier post.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

26 minutes ago, carinthian said:

ECM showing a fairly mild Christmas Day in the offering. So the main models continue to show a wide spread in outcomes for the Festive Period across Blighty , ranging from Cold/Mild/ Average.  Take your pick ! Think it will be Wednesday at the earliest before the forecast becomes more resolved.

C

Thanks for all Updates C….I agree, Wednesday at the earliest….if not Friday!

 

BFTP

[minus10]

Well downturn in the models (weo gfs) re cold prospects...still this met office video interesting viewing with battles, monster US storm and of course uncertainty in the mix..

 

[Guest]

If these Fellas can get a Man on the Moon, I'm pretty sure they can get a Snowman in Blighty on Xmas Day!

 One small step for Man , one giant leap for Snowman kind!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

Jan 1984?

Well in some ways it'll serve us better to go full on raging zonal with the tpv close to our N or NW rather than sitting in no-mans land with a strong euro HP and unsettled conditions focussed on the NW of the UK. Going full on zonal would at least ensure that we're in the raffle for shots of cold polar maritime air and lower thicknesses from time to time.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Cold zonality

Useless for my location, CZ is only good for high areas, mainly over 300m asl

[mulzy]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Well in some ways it'll serve us better to go full on raging zonal with the tpv close to our N or NW rather than sitting in no-mans land with a strong euro HP and unsettled conditions focussed on the NW of the UK. Going full on zonal would at least ensure that we're in the raffle for shots of cold polar maritime air and lower thicknesses from time to time.

Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England.  I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C.

[Wold Topper]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England.  I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C.

Not everyone lives in Southern England

[That ECM]

More zonal crud please gfs.

[LRD]

Uninspiring ECM ensembles. Op right at the top for the 23rd to the 25th but not much to get excited about here

[danm]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Which is not going to deliver for most of lowland Southern England.  I’d rather have a benign Bartlett and 15C.

 

Just now, Wold Topper said:

Not everyone lives in Southern England

Cold zonality isn’t just a fail for southern England, it often fails to deliver much to lowland areas further north too, except perhaps some transient snowfall. Jan ‘84 was an extreme version of cold zonality that did deliver for many further north and west, but that isn’t a common set up either. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, danm said:

 

Cold zonality isn’t just a fail for southern England, it often fails to deliver much to lowland areas further north too, except perhaps some transient snowfall. Jan ‘84 was an extreme version of cold zonality that did deliver for many further north and west, but that isn’t a common set up either. 

We have to take into account that the past few weeks have seen a lot of cold air sat around our shores and also flooding into the N Atlantic. Any PM flow is likely to be less moderated than usual now.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well downturn in the models (weo gfs) re cold prospects...still this met office video interesting viewing with battles, monster US storm and of course uncertainty in the mix..

 

That potentially historic/but definitely  very notable Nor’easter.  Very influential imo

 

BFTP

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Uninspiring ECM ensembles. Op right at the top for the 23rd to the 25th but not much to get excited about here

The day 10 mean is pretty ominous.  Let’s hope we can scrape a decent cluster in FI.

[Cleeve Hill]

9 minutes ago, minus10 said:

Well downturn in the models (weo gfs) re cold prospects...still this met office video interesting viewing with battles, monster US storm and of course uncertainty in the mix..

 

It’s worth listening to. Always educational