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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

nick sussex

By nick sussex
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please keep your posts to discussing the model output in this thread, and for more general winter weather chat please use the winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

The model highlights thread is also available for a more concise view of the model discussions. 

Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family-friendly

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted

Pick the bones out of that lot - what a mess

 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Block is gaining strength over Greenland with heights still spilling up from the Atlantic at T150 , I think it’ll be a great run just a longer route. The Ens could be telling on that.

 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
19 minutes ago, Beano said:

But isn't a nor'easter an antlantic born system? i.e bringing north east winds to coastal us states?

No, it’s a system that runs up the Eastern Seaboard….sometimes it’s more at sea, sometimes more inland.  The depth of cold and combined wind strength will challenge records imo

 

BFTP

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Strong Greenland heights yet again on this run!! What is it seeing that the other models cannot?

Of course a variation of the same theme locally with Christmas day looking like a wet rather than white one. I don't think we'll mind if the Holy grail sets up a day or two later

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted (edited)

The pressure of the heights to the south east are to strong at the 150 hour mark. It actually causes a short wave to the tip of Greenland and blows the north east flow up. Fine margins but very subtle 

Edited by swfc
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

Strong Greenland heights yet again on this run!! What is it seeing that the other models cannot?

Of course a variation of the same theme locally with Christmas day looking like a wet rather than white one. I don't think we'll mind if the Holy grail sets up a day or two later

I was just about to say this could be a better route to the holy grail. Some epic cold to our NE lining up at T174 

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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted (edited)

Christmas weekend looks set for mostly mild going by this final run of the day …..but 27th onwards still on !!! if not for the euro heights it was all on ! 
 

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Edited by goosey007
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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

Interesting how the Nor’easter is due to ‘fill out’ quickly….that to me suggests a potential rapid GHP build….looking good.  18z 3 in a row?

 

BFTP

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January Snowstorm Accomplished

January Snowstorm

Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
Posted

Fairly messy run tbh even after Christmas. I did say last night a half way house between ukmo and gfs was close to useless. We needed the gfs to be correct. Trying to save face but you get a feeling the backtrack is imminent!!

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, swfc said:

It's not a better run at 114 hrs. The secondary low is dragging it heels 😒

The dogs hungry... top he’s bowl up with the 18z- 🙄.. a redundant mess- those micro geographical mini waves are more agg than the Iberian s**thead..

Edited by tight isobar
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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

18z is step away from white Christmas for most and greenlands although present again are struggling to win battle against forcing pattern south east against euro block…
 

with us in the middle. Frustration run…

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)

I see cold pushing down from the north and rain pushing in from the south…wonder what will happen when / where the 2 meet 🤔

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Edited by Tim Bland
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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

18z is step away from white Christmas for most and greenlands although present again are struggling to win battle against forcing pattern south east against euro block…
 

with us in the middle. Frustration run…

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Might not happen here, but it looks to me like the se low could get cut off and the two highs meet up.

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Lukesluckybunch Accomplished

Lukesluckybunch

Posted
  • Location: Bicester
  • Location: Bicester
Posted
2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

18z is step away from white Christmas for most and greenlands although present again are struggling to win battle against forcing pattern south east against euro block…
 

with us in the middle. Frustration run…

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Not exactly a proper Greenland high anyway..looks a bit weak compared to 12z

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

18z is step away from white Christmas for most and greenlands although present again are struggling to win battle against forcing pattern south east against euro block…
 

with us in the middle. Frustration run…

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

Only for the big day.  That will turn out cold…great run again

 

 BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

If the pattern was a few hundred miles further south it would be a white out in England and wales 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

18z is step away from white Christmas for most and greenlands although present again are struggling to win battle against forcing pattern south east against euro block…
 

with us in the middle. Frustration run…

Could contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors

I keep seeing people highlighting the heights to the south east as a blocker, but it was only a few days ago that the issue was heights over Iberia, it’s looks like it has been lost on those that wish to ignore it that the heights are being transferred east and lowered to our south over time.

Edited by frosty ground
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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

If the pattern was a few hundred miles further south it would be a white out in England and wales 

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There is plenty of time for this to drop south further

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted (edited)

Trust me……….. nobody knows!!!!

watching this helps, you understand the complexities of where we’re at………

Edited by Fozfoster
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

If the pattern was a few hundred miles further south it would be a white out in England and wales 

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If this pattern was a few hundred miles further north it would be white out for Northern Ireland Northern England Scottish Borders just saying.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

deep cold incoming on this run undercutting Atlantic troughs - could end up our version of the USA event.

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