Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Perhaps, but I can't imagine it's about to jump ahead to first place and beat out the entire EPS suite..

Well the graph you posted had the GFS in first place at least once and 2nd enough times, not that it matters because we will find out soon enough anyway

[Battleground Snow]

Yet again another op that's the warmest on Xmas day compared to the other ensembles,

It's like the programmers are tormenting cold fans on purpose!

[damianslaw]

GFS 18Z shows the 528 dam line virtually in the same position for about 7 days! i.e. through S Scotland, an almighty battleline...

[MJB]

Massive potential and can't grumble with these surely?

 

[Paul_1978]

16 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

It's too far out though..to take seriously this 18z never got going tbh

I genuinely don’t know which 18z run you’re looking at as this is another great GFS run on the whole that we’d have all given our right arms for in November!

[damianslaw]

19 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Sadly this feels more realistic from GFS. The cold air is going to struggle to clear the south coast next weekend due to our old foe over southern Europe. I still think there is room for further corrections north from here tbh. 

The forcing appears to be more from the north than the south, the cold pooling is much more significant...

[Lukesluckybunch]

The mean at 174 isn't too good either..we lose them.heights over greenland

8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

I genuinely don’t know which 18z run you’re looking at as this is another great GFS run on the whole that we’d have all given our right arms for in November!

What's good about it?some potential there but it never reaches it..the 850,s are poor throughout..perhaps Scotland does ok

[CoventryWeather]

27 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I know the GFS is the hero at the moment and is showing what us cold lovers want, but it's worth noting that the model has been performing terribly of late often in third or fourth place.

I know there was that discussion on cannon fodder models, ie GEM but the GEM has been performing broadly better than the GFS. I'm really not buying it's persistently blocked signal. I think it's over-reacting to the MJO signal, it's too early & too aggressive with any blocking. 

The EPS do show a colder period but seems to be more in favour of a toppler northerly vs Greenland blocking & prolonged cold.

I agree here, but there has been a small signal for a few days now suggesting a Greenland high towards the end of the month. Wouldn't say it's impossible - we can't considering what happened recently! 

It's best to let models go - when we start seeing cross-model support then maybe a sign of a change? At the moment, a more seasonal pattern is the most likely solution late Dec/early Jan for me.. 

[ICE COLD]

Lol 18z in FI

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The mean at 174 isn't too good either..we lose them.heights over greenland

What's good about it?some potential there but it never reaches it..the 850,s are poor throughout..perhaps Scotland does ok

I’m with you @Lukesluckybunchas I mused earlier on a very frustrating run for most as I see it.  To see all the vortex over Siberia and heights in Greenland and we spend at least 10 days in 0 uppers south coast fo around -5 Scottish Borders…  Greenland height signal has also faded from 12z that in itself was a fade from 06z.. 

[booferking]

Gfs slowing losing heights run by run early on this time tomorrow it will be inline with rest of models, just can't  be trusted the mean trending the wrong way also.

Welcome to the clown   show all will be revealed tomorrow in the next episode of gfs the calamity.

[damianslaw]

Its that point in the year, when judgement becomes clouded by Christmas Day expectations... once we can call more confidently what may happen on Sunday (48 hours time - which in most years is very later going, but this year it is very complex), people will naturally begin I feel to look beyond Christmas Day and to New Year perhaps a bit more objectively I think. Nerves and feelings tomorrow will be very high and this thread may be one to stay out of and come back Wednesday.

[MJB]

3 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The mean at 174 isn't too good either..we lose them.heights over greenland

What's good about it?some potential there but it never reaches it..the 850,s are poor throughout..perhaps Scotland does ok

well they aren't poor throughout are they ,  short to mid term always in the UK albeit more Northern areas but into FI there is a genuine push from the North 

That's far from a rubbish chart and better than something we are used to 

[Don]

2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its that point in the year, when judgement becomes clouded by Christmas Day expectations... once we can call more confidently what may happen on Sunday (48 hours time - which in most years is very later going, but this year it is very complex), people will naturally begin I feel to look beyond Christmas Day and to New Year perhaps a bit more objectively I think. Nerves and feelings tomorrow will be very high and this thread may be one to stay out of and come back Wednesday.

Yep, time to give this model watching another break!!  Overall, not a positive outlook mind 

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The mean at 174 isn't too good either..we lose them.heights over greenland

What's good about it?some potential there but it never reaches it..the 850,s are poor throughout..perhaps Scotland does ok

Thats not true at all Luke.

Masses  of heavy snow across much of the spine of the country..

 

[January Snowstorm]

Nice jma just out!! Gets the Northerly going Christmas morning, with the cold air spreading South

[Aiden2012]

Seeing many conflicting messages tonight things look good to me, if not a lot better than we usually get. Least we are not looking at a raging jet stream and low pressure after low pressure with no hope at all.

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Its that point in the year, when judgement becomes clouded by Christmas Day expectations... once we can call more confidently what may happen on Sunday (48 hours time - which in most years is very later going, but this year it is very complex), people will naturally begin I feel to look beyond Christmas Day and to New Year perhaps a bit more objectively I think. Nerves and feelings tomorrow will be very high and this thread may be one to stay out of and come back Wednesday.

No chance. I'm personally loving this. Very complex and intruiging. Compulsive model viewing and the enjoyment is so much more when we have this fab forum to share and discuss it all. 

3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Nice jma just out!! Gets the Northerly going Christmas morning, with the cold air spreading South

Not sure if that's good news or bad news lol. I really don't rate that model. 

[January Snowstorm]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

No chance. I'm personally loving this. Very complex and intruiging. Compulsive model viewing and the enjoyment is so much more when we have this fab forum to share and discuss it all. 

Not sure if that's good news or bad news lol. I really don't rate that model. 

They are all relevant for trends. It wasn't anyway like gfs last night but now is moving in line

[Don]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

No chance. I'm personally loving this. Very complex and intruiging. Compulsive model viewing and the enjoyment is so much more when we have this fab forum to share and discuss it all. 

As I said in the run up to the cold spell, when the outlook is looking poor, it improves if I take a break from model watching, so see ya later!! 

[swfc]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats not true at all Luke.

Masses  of heavy snow across much of the spine of the country..

 

It's a bank mate esp going into the new year

[ICE COLD]

Well I think the outlook is cracking , obviously the better the north u are but come on usually we don’t have a chance with a raging pv and jet . One cold spell already in the bag ( was a cracker in my back yard ) . We look like having some more shots at cold and snow . EC46 keeps the blocking going too . 
 

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by ICE COLD

[Woldsedge]

29 minutes ago, MJB said:

Massive potential and can't grumble with these surely?

 

That’s got the blizzard of December 1978written all over it. 

[RCT]

Can't believe how much grumbling is going on. How many years have we waited for charts to look the way they do now. So much potential going forward, especially this early into the winter.

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well I think the outlook is cracking , obviously the better the north u are but come on usually we don’t have a chance with a raging pv and jet . One cold spell already in the bag ( was a cracker in my back yard ) . We look like having some more shots at cold and snow . EC46 keeps the blocking going too . 
 

 

You're right. However, most haven't seen a solitary flake of snow - even after a notable 2 week cold spell. Therein lies the answer to your question.