Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It is going to be surely - you can't tell me that -28c uppers practically into the deep south of America isn't notable?/

Correct.  This is a serious event….

BFTP

[Duane S.]

Surely chart of the day? For a week 6 that is crazy. I wonder what it sees?

 

As for the U.S Nor’Easter not being notable, really? it looks incredible and hasn’t really wavered since it showed up. It will gone on to affect our weather downstream, let’s just hope it does us a favour and pump up the mid Atlantic heights enough to set us down the preferred pathway.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

11 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Defo pointing that way around 7 to 10 days before Xmas last year …..but can’t remember who was first to sniff out the eventual outcome …..

Wasn’t it the gem that started showing the mild pattern that we now have ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Surely chart of the day? For a week 6 that is crazy. I wonder what it sees?

 

As for the U.S Nor’Easter not being notable, really? it looks incredible and hasn’t really wavered since it showed up. It will gone on to affect our weather downstream, let’s just hope it does us a favour and pump up the mid Atlantic heights enough to set us down the preferred pathway.

Agreed.  This Nor’easter is something else….and I wouldn’t be surprised if records tumble…Snow/cold

 

BFTP

[goosey007]

52 minutes ago, snowbob said:

That’s a brave call with the way the models are behaving

could go anyway at the minute

not a done deal yet

No take a peak at Alex Deakins met forcast fir. Xmas week today give a good concise  overview of the forces at hand over North America makes me think the GFS may have this nailed down ….we will surely see ….

[snowbob]

9 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

No take a peak at Alex Deakins met forcast fir. Xmas week today give a good concise  overview of the forces at hand over North America makes me think the GFS may have this nailed down ….we will surely see ….

I hope your right mate

always loved gfs

praying the 18z is consistent with todays runs.

do you have a link

Edited December 19, 2022 by snowbob

[phil nw.]

Latest fax t72

Now that is a complex area of low pressure.Arctic air from the north east meeting the sub tropical Atlantic air out west.Sort that lot out models.We can see the early skirmish developing around the Scottish north coast.

At this stage (day 3) we are nearly all south of the divide but where will this end up on the big day?

Later fax's are usually issued around 11pm for days 4 and 5,will be interesting to follow these now as well as other models to see how things develop leading into Christmas.  

 

[nick sussex]

Not a bad ICON to start the late models . The deeper low heights to the north are further east .

Its not just what happens to the blocking to the nw but the troughing to the east and ne .

Essentially we need those deeper low heights to not edge too far west as these provide a breeding ground for shortwaves .

Edited December 19, 2022 by nick sussex

[frosty ground]

15 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed.  This Nor’easter is something else….and I wouldn’t be surprised if records tumble…Snow/cold

 

BFTP

So why is this 6 week chart more likely to any other? Is the strength in the anomalies the story here?

[goosey007]

11 minutes ago, snowbob said:

I hope your right mate

always loved gfs

praying the 18z is consistent with todays runs.

do you have a link

Put on the met/bbc forum for you 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So why is this 6 week chart more likely to any other? Is the strength in the anomalies the story here?

Nor’easter for Christmas…..it is a monster and imo is ‘in the bag’.  It’s track isn’t 

 

BFTP

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Could this mean ecm is spotting a SSW? I wonder. Interesting that the met are also seeing greater chances than usual of cold episodes deep into January. 

I'm not sure on that, I think it's just a continuation of this winters different synoptics. Don't think a SSW is on the cards yet.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nor’easter for Christmas…..it is a monster and imo is ‘in the bag’.  It’s track isn’t 

 

BFTP

sorry I didn’t realise you where talking about The USA

[bluearmy]

26 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Wasn’t it the gem that started showing the mild pattern that we now have ?

Yes - it was a little progressive but it was first out of the Atlantic phasing blocks 

[london-snow]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nor’easter for Christmas…..it is a monster and imo is ‘in the bag’.  It’s track isn’t 

 

BFTP

lol if people who can’t understand it sounds as if ‘A massive cold outbreak in the u.s. Then as my auntie annie used to say (wives tale) that stuff from the u.s.will hit us in a few weeks time…

[Troubleatmill]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nor’easter for Christmas…..it is a monster and imo is ‘in the bag’.  It’s track isn’t 

 

BFTP

But isn't a nor'easter an antlantic born system? i.e bringing north east winds to coastal us states?

[Lukesluckybunch]

18z rolling out..will it be more of the same from the 12z or will thoughts of Greenland high totally disappear..surely the UKMO and ECM are not wrong here at relatively short range

[Ali1977]

Already looks better at T84 with the northerly looking better and earlier, and the low coming in from the west flatter and further south. 

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Already looks better at T84 with the northerly looking better and earlier, and the low coming in from the west flatter and further south. 

Agreed.. was just thinking it’s picked one of the faster options like the 06z did.

[swfc]

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Agreed.. was just thinking it’s picked one of the faster options like the 06z did.

It's not a better run at 114 hrs. The secondary low is dragging it heels

[goosey007]

 

come on keep it comming !

[Speedbird]

Troublesome heights over the Med

[goosey007]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

 

come on keep it comming !

In reverse

[Lukesluckybunch]

132 looking fairly similar to the 12z..weak heights pushing into Greenland..it's even slower then the 12z though should eventually make it

Edited December 19, 2022 by Lukesluckybunch
Adding

[Rocheydub]

Heights look weaker into Greenland same time frame compared to 12z

 

Edited December 19, 2022 by Rocheydub
Images