Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

I really hope that will come off, last summer was lovely 

Don't believe that at all, a wet and cool summer coming up...

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Atmogenic said:

I really hope that will come off, last summer was lovely 

Tbh, we really need a wet summer considering the drought risk we currently have.

[danm]

Rare 'snow tornado' spotted by Shetland crofter

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Michael Peterson witnessed the phenomenon while feeding his sheep in snowy conditions.

 

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Tbh, we really need a wet summer considering the drought risk we currently have.

It's not the dry summers that have been the problem. It's been the dry autumns and some drier winters in recent years. Spring has also been pretty dry recently

The only summer rainfall I want to see is in the form of warm, southerly-originated thunderstorms

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Tbh, we really need a wet summer considering the drought risk we currently have.

And in these miserable times, that will definitely cheer everyone up... rain and gloom wrecking everyone's summer...

How about an old fashioned, average spring and summer? Temps and rainfall close to the 1981-2010 average for each month from April to August. That would be a good compromise.

Down here in this part of central southern England, March will likely be the 6th wetter-than-average month out of the past 7 - it hasn't been notably dry here of late, except February. The Met Office stats show an average winter overall, and autumn was of course wet. I accept that it's different in other parts of the country.

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

2 hours ago, LRD said:

It's not the dry summers that have been the problem. It's been the dry autumns and some drier winters in recent years. Spring has also been pretty dry recently

The only summer rainfall I want to see is in the form of warm, southerly-originated thunderstorms

 

I would have no objection whatsoever to that, indeed it would add some much needed excitement. Frequent storms separated by sunny would be absolutely fine. Something like summer 1994. It's the dreary cyclonic SW-lies with endless frontal rainfall and gloomy skies which sap the joy out of the spring and summer months completely. August 2020 from the 14th onwards is a good case in point, a truly dire "summer" setup.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, cobbett said:

According to the BBC app its rain every single day here till the 22nd. Now that is depressing 

Seems to be two main spells of bad weather, separated by an interlude around next Tues/Wed.

In fact I would expect Tues and Wed to possibly be dry.

Perhaps more sign of an improvement round the equinox.

2 hours ago, danm said:

That's the downside a SSW at this time of year - we'll have some lingering high latitude blocking that pushes the jet stream south and results in a barrage of low pressure systems and cool weather. 

It does seem that those Marches which feature snow are otherwise very dull, damp and gloomy.

Recently March 2001, 2013, 2018 and now this year were/are all a bit rubbish, despite featuring snow in some places.

Contrast that to Feb where cold generally means dry. (This has come up recently).

March 2008 was also on the cold and wet side, but was synoptically different, less cyclonic and more zonal (with a NW-ly tendency). Consequently, less depressing than the 2001/2013/2018/2023 type, as you didn't get lows sitting over southern England for days so much.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[MP-R]

2 hours ago, LRD said:

It's not the dry summers that have been the problem. It's been the dry autumns and some drier winters in recent years. Spring has also been pretty dry recently

The only summer rainfall I want to see is in the form of warm, southerly-originated thunderstorms

Exactly. As glum as it may be, a sodden March is no bad thing. A traditional April also. The former, at least, looks probable with a continuation of the jet going through or south of the UK.

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Tbh, we really need a wet summer considering the drought risk we currently have.

Wouldn't be worried about drought after the next couple of weeks:



Soaking wet everywhere. Some western areas will need watching for flooding, 150-200mm in 10 days is in flood territory, even if it has been dry in February.

[mb018538]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Don't believe that at all, a wet and cool summer coming up...

Any reason to believe that? Care to explain why it'll be wet and cool?
GLOSEA and ECM look very similar to me with regards to higher than normal pressure centred near the UK & +ve temps too.

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldn't be worried about drought after the next couple of weeks:



Soaking wet everywhere. Some western areas will need watching for flooding, 150-200mm in 10 days is in flood territory, even if it has been dry in February.

What are the other models showing for that timeframe?

Are they showing a similar amount of rainfall forecast in the next few weeks?

Additionally what are the models showing for this summer?

[Summer8906]

Just now, mb018538 said:

Any reason to believe that? Care to explain why it'll be wet and cool?
GLOSEA and ECM look very similar to me with regards to higher than normal pressure centred near the UK & +ve temps too.

What's not good there is yet more silly hot weather in SE Europe. Unlike us, that's the last thing they need.

6 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Wouldn't be worried about drought after the next couple of weeks:



Soaking wet everywhere. Some western areas will need watching for flooding, 150-200mm in 10 days is in flood territory, even if it has been dry in February.

It does seem a little strange to me that you can get so much rain in March, even in a cyclonic setup.

With both sea and land cool, one might think that rainfall, while perhaps frequent, ought to be light this time of year.

 

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

a wet and cool summer coming up...

I'll believe the 'cool' summer bit when I experience it...even the unsettled summers we have experienced in the last decade have still all been warmer than average, cool the summer of 2023 it won't be!

[Summer8906]

56 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'll believe the 'cool' summer bit when I experience it...even the unsettled summers we have experienced in the last decade have still all been warmer than average, cool the summer of 2023 it won't be!

Depends what's meant by cool I guess, a lot of people would consider an average summer with mild nights and cool days "cool", even though, technically, it isn't.

[Summer8906]

1 hour ago, MP-R said:

Exactly. As glum as it may be, a sodden March is no bad thing. A traditional April also. The former, at least, looks probable with a continuation of the jet going through or south of the UK.

I guess a traditional April is a mix of warm, sunny spells, cold northerlies with wintry showers and the odd bit of snow?

I'd agree that's not such a bad thing.

However, we do need some sunny and dry weather in the spring to lift the spirits.

This March is not panning out at all the way I expected; mild dry Februaries are generally followed by mild, and not especially wet Marches. I guess the SSW put the kybosh on it.

But as I said in a previous post, there appears to be little of a link between exceptionally dull, wet Marches and dull, wet Aprils. The two worst Aprils since (and including) 2000 both followed warm, sunny Marches.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[johncam]

Come up here ,every summer on the whole is wet and cool apart from a few dry and sunny days  

[*Stormforce~beka*]

48 minutes ago, johncam said:

Come up here ,every summer on the whole is wet and cool apart from a few dry and sunny days  

I'll get you a little beach house in Bournemouth for Summer if you get me a little house where there is snow for winter? ...

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'll get you a little beach house in Bournemouth for Summer if you get me a little house where there is snow for winter? ...

little house on the Prairies? 

[MP-R]

50 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I guess a traditional April is a mix of warm, sunny spells, cold northerlies with wintry showers and the odd bit of snow?

I'd agree that's not such a bad thing.

However, we do need some sunny and dry weather in the spring to lift the spirits.

This March is not panning out at all the way I expected; mild dry Februaries are generally followed by mild, and not especially wet Marches. I guess the SSW put the kybosh on it.

But as I said in a previous post, there appears to be little of a link between exceptionally dull, wet Marches and dull, wet Aprils. The two worst Aprils since (and including) 2000 both followed warm, sunny Marches.

Traditional will vary across the UK, and yes your description is probably true of the north, less so in the south. I mean 'changeable', so a mix of April showers, some settled spells of varying warmth and of course cooler wetter weather at times too - how many Aprils used to be growing up... many managed to be quite sunny even if changeable. Snow in April down here tends to come in the poorer such months e.g. 1998 and 2000, and to a degree, 2008. 1999 was the only one that brought a decent snowfall in an otherwise ok April.

[Summer8906]

24 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'll get you a little beach house in Bournemouth for Summer if you get me a little house where there is snow for winter? ...

Indeed, one could paraphrase @johncam's statement about the southern winter to say "every winter down here is mild and dull apart from the occasional sunny, cold day..."

[danm]

UK snow: Do we have more now than we used to?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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With more of the white stuff in the forecast over the next few days, Ben Rich explains how snow is forecast and the impacts of climate change on snowfall in the UK.

The answer is no, we get less (shock, horror). 

[Summer8906]

On another matter I wonder how the sunshine totals for this month are faring up?

Pretty dire down here, probably as little as 10 hours at a guess. Every day has been more or less continuously cloudy except the 2nd.

Looking at the models there's a bit of a mixture in terms of what will happen next. The GFS 00Z will I suspect produce some quite staggeringly low sunshine totals for March, with not a single day likely to produce prolonged sunshine right out to the 25th, though the 06Z is more hopeful with a likely sunny window next Tues/Wed, then a more general settling down around the equinox.

If there is a change to sunnier weather at the end of the month, co-inciding with the change to BST, we'll really notice it. Given the current exceptionally dull and gloomy conditions are effectively knocking half an hour off the "normal" day length at each end of the day, there's the possibility of going from semi-darkness at 6pm to daylight at 7.30pm, just like that.

I wonder if, up to now, there are any years when January has produced more absolute sunshine hours than March? Could happen this year I guess: the first half of Jan was dull but the second half distinctly sunny.

 

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[LRD]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Exactly. As glum as it may be, a sodden March is no bad thing. A traditional April also. The former, at least, looks probable with a continuation of the jet going through or south of the UK.

Yep, I can live with a wet March but I hope we get some warm weather in April (even if it's showery) and then May becomes dry and warm and bright/sunny

Then a warm, dry summer but with plenty of thunderstorm activity. It can rain all it wants from about mid-Sept to mid-Nov if there remain any concerns about water levels at that stage

[Summer8906]

8 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yep, I can live with a wet March but I hope we get some warm weather in April (even if it's showery) and then May becomes dry and warm and bright/sunny

I rather hope we don't have to wait until May for the next spell of settled weather. By May it's only four months until autumn!

The longer this dull and wet weather carries on, the longer it eats up spring. Spring is probably my favourite season as nature is at its best and the days are still getting longer, so we need some half-decent weather, at least, to enjoy it.

Given my scepticism about the summer (based on the prevailing patterns since 2007; only 2013, 2014, 2018 and 2022 were any good), we need some fine weather in the spring. I'm hoping April and May will deliver the goods. Not scorching warmth or heat, but something pleasantly warm, often dry and fairly sunny.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[johncam]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'll get you a little beach house in Bournemouth for Summer if you get me a little house where there is snow for winter? ...

It's a deal