Spring 2023 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Mandy Orme]

This the forth day of rain and more to come ! We had flooding in January ,so definitely not droughts down here .Here hoping for a long hot summer

[LRD]

14 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

I rather hope we don't have to wait until May for the next spell of settled weather. By May it's only four months until autumn!

The longer this dull and wet weather carries on, the longer it eats up spring. Spring is probably my favourite season as nature is at its best and the days are still getting longer, so we need some half-decent weather, at least, to enjoy it.

Given my scepticism about the summer (based on the prevailing patterns since 2007; I suspect both July and Aug will be below the 1981-2010 means for sunshine), we need some fine weather in the spring. I'm hoping April and May will deliver the goods. Not scorching warmth or heat, but something pleasantly warm, often dry and fairly sunny.

We've just come out of a settled period in Feb. It has to rain at some point!! And I'd rather it now than between early May and early Sep

Forgive my own scepticism but people on here have been predicting crap summers, once spring comes round, every year since I've been on here. Only 2012 was truly awful (but even then August cheered up), although we've had some 'meh' summers in that time I don't recall any other really bad ones apart from 2011. That is in MBY of course. I realise further north and west summer can be a very trying period

There were one or two on here confidently writing off summer 2022 in April last year!

Dunno if that weather-history chap who is on here has this sort of data - but I wonder how many washout days there have been in the cricket from 1960-1990 compared to 1991 to the present day?

Edited March 9, 2023 by LRD

[Cheshire Freeze]

As I mentioned the other day, the EC seasonal is wall to wall HP across the UK from May-Sep. Can’t see anything other than another hot, dry summer. It’s as a robust signal you’ll see on that model.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

little house on the Prairies? 

I actually love those books!

12 minutes ago, johncam said:

It's a deal

I like you!

[johncam]

2 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I actually love those books!

I like you!

A wee cottage in Aviemore area 

[The real Lomond snowstorm]

1 hour ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:

I'll get you a little beach house in Bournemouth for Summer if you get me a little house where there is snow for winter? ...

Given the price of houses down south, he might take you up on that.

 

Edit, I see he already has.

Edited March 9, 2023 by The real Lomond snowstorm
Addition

[Eugene]

Wow what a great Winter it's been here, lots of severe frosts in December (down to -10C here coldest in a long time) and in January with daytime temps struggling. March has started great too with a decent covering of snow here last night with it lasting all of today with daytime temps struggling to only 1C way below average for almost mid March. Really enjoyed this Winter.

[CryoraptorA303]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As I mentioned the other day, the EC seasonal is wall to wall HP across the UK from May-Sep. Can’t see anything other than another hot, dry summer. It’s as a robust signal you’ll see on that model.

Yup, it's looking worse than last year's seasonal forecast did in March 2022 - Granted I'm not suggesting by any means that we'll see the same extreme temperatures we did last year, not at this point anyway. It could manifest as one or two 42c days among extremely average conditions, or as 30c every day from June to September. The likelihood is somewhere in the middle of those two, which is still terrible after what happened last year, and then the driest February in 30 years, especially if it's also unusually dry. People don't seem to understand that torrential downpours after an extremely dry spell do next to nothing for recovering from a drought, since it's all just going to wash off of the dry, desiccated ground, and evaporate again when it gets warm and sunny. We need a period of moderate, consistent, settled rainfall like what we're set to get for the rest of March - that's the only way to really recover from massive droughts. For the last four years or so, every large park and field near me has been waterlogged for months in the winter, and then in March or April when we get a warm, dry spell, it all evaporates again and leaves the ground not much wetter than when it started, except this year it all started drying up in February instead due to how bone dry it was. Hopefully this wetter spell throughout March (and possibly April) can make us a bit more resistant to a dry summer again this year, and let's pray to the weather gods that we don't see the same sort of extreme heat again.

[SussexSnowman]

It’s been peeing down here last 2 days post mini snow event. How I haven’t missed it

I hope those cashing in on the snow up north are having a blast and enjoying it

[CryoraptorA303]

16 minutes ago, Eugene said:

Wow what a great Winter it's been here, lots of severe frosts in December (down to -10C here coldest in a long time) and in January with daytime temps struggling. March has started great too with a decent covering of snow here last night with it lasting all of today with daytime temps struggling to only 1C way below average for almost mid March. Really enjoyed this Winter.

I'm glad it's gone well for you - Here we had a nice cold anomaly in December and had snow for a week, then January started really wet and mild, we had a bit of normal winter weather for a little while, and then February was dreadful, just like last February, or the February before that, or the February before that one, etc.. March has been interesting - We've been working on a cool spell for most of March so far - got some transient snow on Wednesday that managed to withstand a few hours of sleet and cold rain before disappearing. Now just one day later we're back up to average for the time of year (remember, March 9th is a very different time of year to March 31st), and after a cooler Friday and Saturday we appear to be working at painfully average conditions for the next ever. The moderate, gentle rain throughout is very welcome though. Let's hope it delivers to its fullest extent - Summer coming up looks like another one to potentially get the record books out for - Just like almost every other one in recent times.

Edited March 9, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[Downburst]

46 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

As I mentioned the other day, the EC seasonal is wall to wall HP across the UK from May-Sep. Can’t see anything other than another hot, dry summer. It’s as a robust signal you’ll see on that model.

I read that 1976 was one of the last two most recent years that followed a triple dip La Nina, so here's hoping there is some similarity. I have a lot of firewood to season also for next winter, so I would be delighted with this.

[rwtwm]

I mentioned in the changing daylight thread how important sun is to me in Late Feb/early March to help shake off the heavy feeling from the winter just gone. Well since returning from my Wintersports trip in late Feb, I'm not sure I've seen the sun once! 

Thankfully, it felt like late spring up the mountain, so I've kicked off my vitamin D production for the year, but the cloud cover is starting to get a little wearing. 

1 hour ago, LRD said:

Forgive my own scepticism but people on here have been predicting crap summers, once spring comes round, every year since I've been on here. Only 2012 was truly awful (but even then August cheered up), although we've had some 'meh' summers in that time I don't recall any other really bad ones apart from 2011. That is in MBY of course. I realise further north and west summer can be a very trying period

2021 was dreadful here! Constant flooding. Good fun for the storm fans I guess, but appealing for usability. It was a weird pattern though as I recall, and one of the best summers in living memory for those northwest of Derby. 

2020 wasn't great either as I recall, but everyone only remembers the persistently warm and sunny spring. 

[mb018538]

Truly dreadful day here, worst for weeks, hasn’t stopped raining all day! Cold rain. The worst type of weather. Up to 12mm for the day with plenty more to come overnight and into tomorrow.

[kold weather]

44 minutes ago, Downburst said:

I read that 1976 was one of the last two most recent years that followed a triple dip La Nina, so here's hoping there is some similarity. I have a lot of firewood to season also for next winter, so I would be delighted with this.

The other year to follow a triple dip la nina was 1957, and June 1957 was no slouch, given it was the sunniest ever month before being beaten by May 2020. Oh and it also recorded a 35.6c. 

Also worth noting there are other models ensemble forecasts for the summer which also show a similar pattern, drier than normal favoured.

Of course these forecasts always should be taken with extreme caution, should El Nino come on too fast too strong the atlantic may well overwhelm the pattern and force it eastwards anyways.

[danm]

41 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

 

2020 wasn't great either as I recall, but everyone only remembers the persistently warm and sunny spring. 

Summer 2020 also had some great weather. 

[Summer8906]

53 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

I mentioned in the changing daylight thread how important sun is to me in Late Feb/early March to help shake off the heavy feeling from the winter just gone. Well since returning from my Wintersports trip in late Feb, I'm not sure I've seen the sun once! 

Indeed, street lights coming on at 6pm, and it being almost dark, on March 9th just makes it feel like it's still the first half of February.

Bright weather, not necessarily brilliant sunshine but a lack of heavy cloud, is necessary to give the feeling that spring is supposedly on its way. I've known more spring-like days at the end of January.

53 minutes ago, rwtwm said:

Thankfully, it felt like late spring up the mountain, so I've kicked off my vitamin D production for the year, but the cloud cover is starting to get a little wearing. 

2021 was dreadful here! Constant flooding. Good fun for the storm fans I guess,

One day of notable thunder in 2021 here, and that was the breakdown of that week long hot and very humid spell in July, heralding the arrival of yet more cool and wet weather.

2020 and 2019 were rather poor, also.

12 minutes ago, danm said:

Summer 2020 also had some great weather. 

But it never lasted very long. One short spell of 5 days in late June, one even shorter spell of 2 days at the end of July, and one very hot and humid spell of 8 days in August - amongst a lot of cloudy weather with mild nights, but cool days, and a truly appalling period in August from the 14th onwards with dark, gloomy days and frequent rain.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Summer8906]

24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

The other year to follow a triple dip la nina was 1957, and June 1957 was no slouch, given it was the sunniest ever month before being beaten by May 2020. Oh and it also recorded a 35.6c. 

Wasn't March 1957 extremely mild though?  (so different to now)

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Summer8906 said:

Wasn't March 1957 extremely mild though?  (so different to now)

Yes, obviously your never going to get a total like for like and ENSO is only one factor, there may well be other factors that end up being far more important. It was just interesting that both 57/76 did have some pretty hot weather in June.

[Summer8906]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes, obviously your never going to get a total like for like and ENSO is only one factor, there may well be other factors that end up being far more important. It was just interesting that both 57/76 did have some pretty hot weather in June.

True. But perhaps 1957 is not an analogue we want for the summer as a whole anyway, though, as July and August were both pretty dire. In fact 1957 has strong similarity to the typical 2007-21 pattern, with prolonged fine weather in spring and early summer before it all went wrong in July and August.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Summer8906

[Guest]

Fair bit of despondency around it seems after today...certainly its not quite turning out to be a classic for most but some places have seen a fair bit of snow, myself included, probably because I don't want it! There have been some very impressive nighttime minimums over Scotland over the last couple of night though so the usual tale of winners and losers when it comes to wintry weather in this country.

[ANYWEATHER]

3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

As I mentioned the other day, the EC seasonal is wall to wall HP across the UK from May-Sep. Can’t see anything other than another hot, dry summer. It’s as a robust signal you’ll see on that model.

You can't take seasonal models seriously. Otherwise it would be right all the time, Summer will be dominated by low pressure, Good for storm lovers...

[johncam]

Had a brief light snow shower woohoo, most I have see all winter 

[CryoraptorA303]

1 hour ago, Summer8906 said:

True. But perhaps 1957 is not an analogue we want for the summer as a whole anyway, though, as July and August were both pretty dire. In fact 1957 has strong similarity to the typical 2007-21 pattern, with prolonged fine weather in spring and early summer before it all went wrong in July and August.

On the contrary, I wouldn't mind a mild, gentle summer with plenty of rain after last year. I think I started to lose my sanity after a while in that heat...

[CryoraptorA303]

30 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

You can't take seasonal models seriously. Otherwise it would be right all the time, Summer will be dominated by low pressure, Good for storm lovers...

They might not be 100% accurate, but they shouldn't be dismissed out of hand either. That's just as bad as taking the current summer forecast and suggesting that since it's currently worse than last year's forecast was in March, we can expect to see 42c heatwaves this summer. The correct approach is to acknowledge that there may be a higher chance of a hot, dry summer and we may be more likely to experience heatwaves.

Edited March 9, 2023 by CryoraptorA303

[CryoraptorA303]

4 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry matey ,but I don't believe in seasonal forecasts. I'm one of millions who don't.  I will get my seaweed out, it's much more reliable

Good for you. Meanwhile the meteorologists and climatologists of the world who know what they're talking about will continue to use them to predict long-term trends.