Model Output Discussion - Mid Summer Onwards

[StingJet]

As Matt stated above .. support is growing ...  extended outlooks still on the fence though 
Of late I have been "toying" with the GEFS probability charts , in search of a ray or two of hope for improvements .. for the last week not an ounce (0% probability)  of 25c hitting our shores,
The last couple of days, again support has been growing for something more settled and warmer.. although not sure about 2am !!

Edited July 31, 2023 by StingJet

[Azazel]

10 hours ago, Atmogenic said:

oh please let these models that users have been posting come true, i am sick to death with this weather, it is stopping me what I like to do outside with saturday being the last day it was actually nice. It feels like we've been in this yuck for more than a month

We have. It’s been approaching six weeks (minus that random hot Friday at the start of July) 

[lassie23]

I wonder if the jet stream will crumble by November.

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I wonder if the jet stream will crumble by November.

Mustn't grumble, eh? 

[Mark wheeler]

ECM Control

[Addicks Fan 1981]

1 minute ago, Mark wheeler said:

ECM Control

Must say that could look like a plume type of scenario if it verifies.    

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

At least its a vast improvement on what we've had over the past 4 weeks.   Bit like what we had in August 2009 in essence, August 2009 wasn't really settled, that being said it was better the further south and east you went.   

Just had a gander at the GEFS 12Z ensemble mean at 216 hours and to be honest @Mike PooleI would take it, I really would.  

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=31&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

 

Yeah august 09 was slightly better than July that year. 
 

I still remember it being fairly dull and cool at times, with a few warm sunny days thrown into the mix.

[Man With Beard]

Big improvement in temperatures on ECM extended ensembles, chance of 30C by the weekend after this one starting to come into play ... 

[B87]

5 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Yeah august 09 was slightly better than July that year. 
 

I still remember it being fairly dull and cool at times, with a few warm sunny days thrown into the mix.

Here's August 2009. It was slightly drier and duller than average (36mm and ~190 hours). Much better than this month.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Big improvement in temperatures on ECM extended ensembles, chance of 30C by the weekend after this one starting to come into play ... 

Don't want to jinx it @Man With Beardbut the NOAA chart I viewed and posted looked very encouraging indeed.    

[Rain All Night]

1 hour ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Not a trough to be seen here really, best NOAA chart we've had since June.    

Here are the last few EC46s for almost the same time period (shifted one day earlier) for comparison:

Note that the EC46 shades anomalies of +/- 2 dam or more, whereas the CPC chart only shades anomalies when they are +/- 3 dam or more.

Edited July 31, 2023 by RainAllNight

[danm]

Finally a light at the end of the tunnel that seems to be growing in support. GFS and ECM both showing a big improvement next week. 

[SunnyG]

38 minutes ago, danm said:

Finally a light at the end of the tunnel that seems to be growing in support. GFS and ECM both showing a big improvement next week. 

Soon we are gonna run out of tunnel....

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS looks cloudy and muggy for most around day 10-12 with warm uppers and a maritime source. Yuk

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by CreweCold

[Rain All Night]

4 hours ago, RainAllNight said:

GEFS 12z a little better than 6z around that second weekend of August

Although I can't stay up late enough to wait for all of these to load for the ECM 12z ensemble, the two three that have loaded so far look good

Edit: Just noticed how much the MSLP chart looks like the GFS run that @CreweCold just posted and said is yuck...

Edited July 31, 2023 by RainAllNight

[Cheshire Freeze]

18 minutes ago, RainAllNight said:

Although I can't stay up late enough to wait for all of these to load for the ECM 12z ensemble, the two that have loaded so far look good

Edit: Just noticed how much the MSLP chart looks like the GFS run that @CreweCold just posted and said is yuck...

Yes look at the attendant precipitation charts for the GFS. There’s drizzle in the flow and the airmass source is solidly maritime. That says cloudy, humid to me…especially for central and northern areas.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Was talking about a possible plume type of scenario @CreweColdby what another poster shared in here and that scenario is in with a good sporting chance to be honest.  

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Was talking about a possible plume type of scenario @CreweColdby what another poster shared in here and that scenario is in with a good sporting chance to be honest.  

A plume event will only happen with a trough digging S or SSE to our west, or a cut off LP to our SW…allied with core of heights to our E.

The GFS shows a ridging Azores HP centred just to our S with the jet riding over the top, bringing in a humid tropical maritime flow.

Two different HP scenarios.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Now I've got more clarity @CreweColdand was pleased that I shared the NOAA 8-14 day output earlier which looked pretty good from an anomoly perspective.   

Obviously these trends have got to maintain themselves and I don't want to jinx anything for now.  

Hope when Tamara next comes online she can share with what's going on with the GWO/AAM as that'll be interesting of where we are at.   

Edited July 31, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981

[Nick2373]

18z still the trend continues for something more summer like 10th of August the further South the warmer the set up i think. Probably will see the OP fall in line with the others to bring just above average temps warm but not to warm, winds swinging from South West to West South West during this period around the 14th looks to drop off to a more showery set up light showers but still warm than of late. 

[KTtom]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

A plume event will only happen with a trough digging S or SSE to our west, or a cut off LP to our SW…allied with core of heights to our E.

The GFS shows a ridging Azores HP centred just to our S with the jet riding over the top, bringing in a humid tropical maritime flow.

Two different HP scenarios.

It is a fairly consistant theme with the last few gfs runs post day 10. The Met, sticking there necks out saying chances of a settled hot spell in August is low. Warmer looks likely, dryer looks likely but no return to 'June' from what i can see. 

[Nick2373]

6 minutes ago, KTtom said:

It is a fairly consistant theme with the last few gfs runs post day 10. The Met, sticking there necks out saying chances of a settled hot spell in August is low. Warmer looks likely, dryer looks likely but no return to 'June' from what i can see. 

Its been written all over the GEFS For weeks i suspect a return to slightly warmer conditions from the 10th but perhaps only a four day affair with showers thereafter.  

[bluearmy]

A couple of days ago the ec op began to play with a highly anomolous nw Russian upper ridge at day 10. If that happens and sticks then I’m not sure what will follow for our part of nw europe because that’s going to block the jet 

move on 48 hours and the ops all see the feature but deal with it differently (but all with a strong retrograde pattern on it). if it simply heads to Greenland locale then we roughly know what to expect.  However, we also see an Azores upper ridge likely to push across at a similar timeframe - the chance is there that what could look like a transient Azores feature running west to east could find itself with a mate heading east to west at the same time. If that plays out how those seeking a summery august want, then we do get a more significant block establishing in the e Atlantic/nw European sector.  perhaps a route to getting next week’s improvement to stick around ???

[IcySpicy]

Agree with some of the thoughts above. I don't really like the ECM this morning, it's an improvement for the UK, but those gigantic highs around Greenland and Svalbard are not good. They cause a northerly flow into Europe and in the worst case a new trough will form beneath those highs. GFS this morning is better imo, it tries to connect the Azores high with a Scandi high, which is a more typical good summer setup.

Edited August 1, 2023 by IcySpicy

[Scorcher]

8 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Yes look at the attendant precipitation charts for the GFS. There’s drizzle in the flow and the airmass source is solidly maritime. That says cloudy, humid to me…especially for central and northern areas.

There's been an unbelievable amount of rain from cooler air sources over the past few weeks- so if the only change possible is a warmer air mass I will take that.

Anything is better than what we've had for about 90% of July.