Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion

[Sun Chaser]

By some miracle: a strange new icon has appeared for this weekend's forecast in the weather app!

 

[marky810]

This endless rain is way beyond a joke now. It's been pounding it down again here for the last couple of hours. I went out in the garden earlier and everything is absolutely saturated from the fence to the flowerbeds.

[TwisterGirl81]

36 minutes ago, Methuselah said:

Currently, it's chucking it down here! 

It’s been moderately raining here all afternoon. Just 3 more months to get through then hopefully feel the warmth of the sun again with any luck

[Metwatch]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

my favourite setup is lows attacking from the S/SW with easterly cold air in place, a bit like storm Emma, also happened so many times in 90's

Best setup in late spring and summer for something thundery too, albeit with the lows substantially weaker. Infact south easterly winds one of my favourite wind direction any point of the year after southerlies, then northerlies but in winter only for that.

[baddie]

2 hours ago, Methuselah said:

Whilst it looks like we are moving to a colder weather pattern, and MIGHT even see some January snow (something of a rarity, these days) the hysteria in the MAD thread seems somewhat over the top. But, hey, the weather will do what the weather will do. . . 

Im thinking a brighter and less-cold version of January 2013

[raz.org.rain]

30 minutes ago, Metwatch said:

Best setup in late spring and summer for something thundery too, albeit with the lows substantially weaker. Infact south easterly winds one of my favourite wind direction any point of the year after southerlies, then northerlies but in winter only for that.

You can bet your life savings that these Iberian highs and south westerlies/easterlies will be like hen's teeth come spring and summer 

Edited January 1 by raz.org.rain

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

Well, that depends on many factors, such as how hot the dry spell was and how dry or wet spring was.

If any water restrictions are announced, it’ll be down to very poor infrastructure, not the weather. Absolutely no excuse for any of that nonsense this year.

[Guest]

Will post this on the moans thread as I will be banned on the model thread for winding people up. But a cold opportunity has already been missed, and as such we are left with an outside opportunity of a HP retrogression. Which is very unlikely, again chasing ten day charts into FI.

When will people learn? 

Take a look, can you really see Retrogression from here? Not a chance. It'll sink.

So third opportunity might come after another ridge builds, more West this time, but this will likely be a topler. 

The cold is for Europe and not UK I'm afraid. I wish I could see things differently but hey ho...

The high will be nice, hoping to see some sunshine.

 

[Arch Stanton]

This feels like the wettest 3 months (Oct-Dec) that I’ve experienced in 24yrs of living in London.

Rainfall figures for Oct-Dec are 51% higher than average:

 

Oct - Dec Avg 227mm

Oct - Dec 342mm

Oct Avg 74.8mm Actual 124.4mm

Nov Avg 73.7mm Actual 103.3mm

Dec Avg 72.5mm Actual 114.7

Its been relentless recently, what a horrible few months 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 1 by Arch Stanton

[CryoraptorA303]

55 minutes ago, MP-R said:

If any water restrictions are announced, it’ll be down to very poor infrastructure, not the weather. Absolutely no excuse for any of that nonsense this year.

The poor infrastructure is not helping things, but a prolonged dry spell can knock out water reserves quite easily. If every month from now until September is drier than average and things start turning hot then you can guarentee things will start drying out very quickly. Periods like 2006 and 2011 were the result of prolonged dryness adding up but a sudden-onset dryhot season can speed up the process. Also keep in mind that at the moment much soil is going to be waterlogged and the past (x)mm of rain will be just sitting there. This has happened most winters here now for the last few years; once a dry sunny spell comes along for a week or two in March or April it's all gone and the soil is bone dry again. That happened last year after the decently wet autumn and early winter, everything got waterlogged and then when the Sun came out for a bit in February it was gone and the soil went dry. The effect has been especially severe this autumn (including December in that) and we have water sitting on roads, fields are unbelivably waterlogged, etc.. So in the end very little of this water has any chance of sticking as groundwater. The last time it was this bad was in 2019/20, when we got some really intense rainfall from October to February. Then a prolonged dry and warm period started at the end of March and by the end of April the ground was completely bone dry and desiccating again. After a certain point any further rainfall will just slide over the ground and won't be useful as its going to instantly evaporate the moment the Sun comes out for a few days.

The extremes between the wet and dry periods over the last few years have had a notable impact on the soil quality here and the local agriculture is starting to suffer now. The yields this year were very poor. A lot of the maize and barley was looking like it was failing to mature. The soil is absolutely ruined, to the extent that many fields round here last year were left to nature. And agriculture in this country is not having a good time as is. I doubt they need extreme wet/dry swinging making things worse.

Note that I don't think an abnormally dry period is going to happen this year or is imminent, at least one month between now and September will be wetter than average and likely more two or three. But who knows, 2022 started with quite a wet February, and there's quite a few notably dry years that had wet Februaries, so considering it's quite literally day one, it's hard to say.

I will point out though, October-December 2002 was quite significantly wetter than average, especially in the south, and January 2003 looks generally cyclonic too, albeit less wet than the others, and then from February onwards it turned a lot drier. Of course, we all know what happened later on in 2003. 2002/03 was a moderate El Nino and came after a triple La Nina. So, err...

Edited January 1 by CryoraptorA303

[raz.org.rain]

48 minutes ago, DCee said:

Will post this on the moans thread as I will be banned on the model thread for winding people up. But a cold opportunity has already been missed, and as such we are left with an outside opportunity of a HP retrogression. Which is very unlikely, again chasing ten day charts into FI.

When will people learn? 

Take a look, can you really see Retrogression from here? Not a chance. It'll sink.

So third opportunity might come after another ridge builds, more West this time, but this will likely be a topler. 

The cold is for Europe and not UK I'm afraid. I wish I could see things differently but hey ho...

The high will be nice, hoping to see some sunshine.

 

Apparently the SSW potential has bombed completely which is honestly surprising, it sounded like we were practically guaranteed to see a SSW and now it's seemingly off the cards. Still, everywhere I've looked tonight has guarantees of cold weather landing on our shores... but we've seen it all before! 

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The poor infrastructure is not helping things, but a prolonged dry spell can knock out water reserves quite easily. If every month from now until September is drier than average and things start turning hot then you can guarentee things will start drying out very quickly. Periods like 2006 and 2011 were the result of prolonged dryness adding up but a sudden-onset dryhot season can speed up the process. Also keep in mind that at the moment much soil is going to be waterlogged and the past (x)mm of rain will be just sitting there. This has happened most winters here now for the last few years; once a dry sunny spell comes along for a week or two in March or April it's all gone and the soil is bone dry again. That happened last year after the decently wet autumn and early winter, everything got waterlogged and then when the Sun came out for a bit in February it was gone and the soil went dry. The effect has been especially severe this autumn (including December in that) and we have water sitting on roads, fields are unbelivably waterlogged, etc.. So in the end very little of this water has any chance of sticking as groundwater. The last time it was this bad was in 2019/20, when we got some really intense rainfall from October to February. Then a prolonged dry and warm period started at the end of March and by the end of April the ground was completely bone dry and desiccating again. After a certain point any further rainfall will just slide over the ground and won't be useful as its going to instantly evaporate the moment the Sun comes out for a few days.

The extremes between the wet and dry periods over the last few years have had a notable impact on the soil quality here and the local agriculture is starting to suffer now. The yields this year were very poor. A lot of the maize and barley was looking like it was failing to mature. The soil is absolutely ruined, to the extent that many fields round here last year were left to nature. And agriculture in this country is not having a good time as is. I doubt they need extreme wet/dry swinging making things worse.

Note that I don't think an abnormally dry period is going to happen this year or is imminent, at least one month between now and September will be wetter than average and likely more two or three. But who knows, 2022 started with quite a wet February, and there's quite a few notably dry years that had wet Februaries, so considering it's quite literally day one, it's hard to say.

I will point out though, October-December 2002 was quite significantly wetter than average, especially in the south, and January 2003 looks generally cyclonic too, albeit less wet than the others, and then from February onwards it turned a lot drier. Of course, we all know what happened later on in 2003. 2002/03 was a moderate El Nino and came after a triple La Nina. So, err...

So we can conclude that dry spells in spring/summer following copious rain will not present problems. Dry spells following dry preceding autumns and winters often will.

[cobbett]

Welcome to the 1st working day of 2024.  Can't wait for the dog walk later in horizontal rain,  fields resembling the Somme and a muddy dog

One crumb is that after today it does look drier

[In Absence of True Seasons]

9 hours ago, Arch Stanton said:

This feels like the wettest 3 months (Oct-Dec) that I’ve experienced in 24yrs of living in London.

Rainfall figures for Oct-Dec are 51% higher than average:

 

Oct - Dec Avg 227mm

Oct - Dec 342mm

Oct Avg 74.8mm Actual 124.4mm

Nov Avg 73.7mm Actual 103.3mm

Dec Avg 72.5mm Actual 114.7

Its been relentless recently, what a horrible few months 

 

 

 

 

I think it feels like that because they genuinely have been some of the wettest months in London. This comes after the grim high summer of this year too, and the wet and cool spring (in the SE anyway).

The darkness and rain in the Oct to Dec period of 2023 has been pretty all-consuming tbh. No real change in pattern at all, just the odd 1 of 2 days respite at most and then return to BAU (dross). I've never seen/known a period like this before. 

Truly feel for tourists who took a holiday to London over the Christmas period. What grim conditions, just constant rain every day, who wants to go around Xmas markets or explore London's streets in this nonsense? 

Utterly disgusting in every regard. Thankfully there looks to be an incoming dry spell after tomorrow, which is sorely, sorely needed. The roads around my area are all flooded and our front garden has become a literal bog.  

Edited January 2 by In Absence of True Seasons

[BarometerCat]

Still showing colder 'interlude' around the 7th... 

just for quick comparison.  

 GFS 0z

ECM0z 

Getting closer and more or less similar outputs.  A break from rain etc..(hopefully) under a bit of high pressure.  Not snowmaggedon or narnia by a long way but will do after last few weeks tbh.

 

[Summer Sun]

Sweden has recorded its first -40c of the season this morning, with Nikkaluokta dropping to -40.5c

[SunnyG]

Silver lining to all this rain is how mild it is. Honestly, sometimes it's been colder than today back in July last year lmao

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sweden has recorded its first -40c of the season this morning, with Nikkaluokta dropping to -40.5c

Poor people....I can't imagine being that cold. I have experienced -20c and I don't wish it on anybody...

[SunnyG]

9 hours ago, CryoraptorA303 said:

The poor infrastructure is not helping things, but a prolonged dry spell can knock out water reserves quite easily. If every month from now until September is drier than average and things start turning hot then you can guarentee things will start drying out very quickly. Periods like 2006 and 2011 were the result of prolonged dryness adding up but a sudden-onset dryhot season can speed up the process. Also keep in mind that at the moment much soil is going to be waterlogged and the past (x)mm of rain will be just sitting there. This has happened most winters here now for the last few years; once a dry sunny spell comes along for a week or two in March or April it's all gone and the soil is bone dry again. That happened last year after the decently wet autumn and early winter, everything got waterlogged and then when the Sun came out for a bit in February it was gone and the soil went dry. The effect has been especially severe this autumn (including December in that) and we have water sitting on roads, fields are unbelivably waterlogged, etc.. So in the end very little of this water has any chance of sticking as groundwater. The last time it was this bad was in 2019/20, when we got some really intense rainfall from October to February. Then a prolonged dry and warm period started at the end of March and by the end of April the ground was completely bone dry and desiccating again. After a certain point any further rainfall will just slide over the ground and won't be useful as its going to instantly evaporate the moment the Sun comes out for a few days.

The extremes between the wet and dry periods over the last few years have had a notable impact on the soil quality here and the local agriculture is starting to suffer now. The yields this year were very poor. A lot of the maize and barley was looking like it was failing to mature. The soil is absolutely ruined, to the extent that many fields round here last year were left to nature. And agriculture in this country is not having a good time as is. I doubt they need extreme wet/dry swinging making things worse.

Note that I don't think an abnormally dry period is going to happen this year or is imminent, at least one month between now and September will be wetter than average and likely more two or three. But who knows, 2022 started with quite a wet February, and there's quite a few notably dry years that had wet Februaries, so considering it's quite literally day one, it's hard to say.

I will point out though, October-December 2002 was quite significantly wetter than average, especially in the south, and January 2003 looks generally cyclonic too, albeit less wet than the others, and then from February onwards it turned a lot drier. Of course, we all know what happened later on in 2003. 2002/03 was a moderate El Nino and came after a triple La Nina. So, err...

I have never understood this. When I lived in Rome (way more dry than UK can ever get) we never had hose pipe bans or other water restrictions. Never heard of it over there...

[SussexSnowman]

What absolute crud weather it has been. Nothing but wind and rain. Just give me dry weather. I am sick to death of this crud. Giving me Winter 2013/14 vibes. However, Happy New Year everyone and I hope you all had a fab Christmas outside of the useless weather!

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

I have never understood this. When I lived in Rome (way more dry than UK can ever get) we never had hose pipe bans or other water restrictions. Never heard of it over there...

Depends where you live re water shortages. If you're in an area near to a constant water source, like here, there's never issues re long dry periods. Our area gets its water from a decent reservoir infrastructure, but more importantly from sources in the Welsh moutains, hills and the source of the Severn. 

Stating the bleedin' obvious, as well, is the population density issue, which London and the SE have to deal with.

[SunSean]

The never ending wet & grey pattern continues into 2024! At least we know that 2024 can't possibly be as wet & dull as 2023 right?

After 2 days of constant rain & cloud in a row for January and more forecast for the next 2 days here, 2024 is like "HOLD MY BEER" lol.

[LRD]

40 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

I have never understood this. When I lived in Rome (way more dry than UK can ever get) we never had hose pipe bans or other water restrictions. Never heard of it over there...

Rome is wetter than London

46 minutes ago, SunnyG said:

Silver lining to all this rain is how mild it is. Honestly, sometimes it's been colder than today back in July last year lmao

Poor people....I can't imagine being that cold. I have experienced -20c and I don't wish it on anybody...

Aye, can't wait to take the dog out in all this mild rain. Deep joy

[sarahng]

What a perfectly awful day!  Nearly 10 am and still not really light!  When are we going to get some sunny, frosty mornings?  My poor garden is waterlogged, the shrubs and other plants drooping and to cap it all, the pesky squirrels have dug up most of my lovely (expensive) spring bulbs!  At least if it was properly cold, they would be frozen into the earth!

[Scorcher]

What a truly horrific period of weather this has been. A long dry period is needed now. One of the most depressing periods I can remember in my life.

I'm not usually a cold fan but I will take anything to break this pattern and allow the ground to dry out. The sight of my constantly waterlogged garden with a backdrop of relentless grey is hugely depressing.

[Scorcher]

Yesterday was actually the sunniest day here for some time, with 3.4 hours of sunshine. It still ended up being very wet though once the cloud returned with 11.4mm of rain in the end.

The 2nd half of December was extraordinarily dull here. Only 4.9 hours of sunshine between the 17th and the 31st. Very difficult not to feel down after such a long stretch of gloom.