Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

[bluearmy]

37 minutes ago, IDO said:

The worry is that the other solution is also paved with twists and turns. See the GEM; it

has the surface high that the GFS 0z had, which delays the flow of the cold:

After that, the run falls to pieces, and GEM has been the poster boy for the GH potential on previous runs! There are many forks, and the GFS seems the best for a snow event, with the usual caveats. Remember the GH has a relatively short half-life, so getting an event in early would mean less worry.

Which is why I always prefer getting the cold trough across the U.K. and a bit further south into France - then the Atlantic trough can run into existing dense frigid air. It’s the best of all worlds. The trending on the ens is not in the right direction days 9/12 ref temps in association with the scandi trough not digging far enough south before it extends west. It could be that the models are over reacting to the renewed reversal above 70 N.  Fascinating watching but I have a nagging feeling that the stakes are very high for the south of England on this one.  Miss out next week and then we’re on to feb …….

Edited January 8 by bluearmy

[Paul_1978]

18 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Who does the updates?

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/uk/long-range/monthly

 

[Lukesluckybunch]

A large cold clustering within the mean..you would expect it to go down in future runs wouldn't you!?

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which is why I always prefer getting the cold trough across the U.K. and a bit further south into France - then the Atlantic trough can run into existing dense frigid air. It’s the best of all worlds. The trending on the ens is not in the right direction days 9/12 ref temps in association with the scandi trough not digging far enough south before it extends west. It could be that the models are over reacting to the renewed reversal above 70 N.  Fascinating watching but I have a nagging feeling that the stakes are very high for the south of England on this one.  Miss out next week and then we’re on to feb …….

Absolutely..

We want that trough dropping through Scandy as far south as possible..

That  would benefit much more of the country.. 

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Agreed. Ultimately the further south the cold is, the better it is for everyone. Full stop.

Amazed how some oop norf don’t get this 

ask Andy in Penrith if he was happy the early dec trough made it to the south of England 

it would have been better still had it got to Paris and beyond - then those surprise snowfalls could have cropped up all the way down to the south coast 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

A large cold clustering within the mean..you would expect it to go down in future runs wouldn't you!?

The average is probably 1.2C higher based on the 6 runs that differ

[phil nw.]

No more on this North v South back and forth please.

It's derailing the thread and causing the team to hide the posts.

There are other threads for general chat.

Now back to model discussion please.

Thanks.

Edited January 8 by phil nw.

[Andy8472]

Meanwhile the normal zonal train CFS for feb looks blocked

[Catacol]

@Met4Cast - roll with the muppetry. It doesn’t matter how many times some folk on here are advised not to jump on every micro detail change at 240h. It still happens despite the solid ongoing signal. If current anticipated synoptics are not good enough then I hate to think how people are going to react in the future to the 85-90% of seasons with more typical patterns.

All good. Trough still dropping down the eastern side of a significant block. Good times.

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Which is why I always prefer getting the cold trough across the U.K. and a bit further south into France - then the Atlantic trough can run into existing dense frigid air. It’s the best of all worlds. The trending on the ens is not in the right direction days 9/12 ref temps in association with the scandi trough not digging far enough south before it extends west. It could be that the models are over reacting to the renewed reversal above 70 N.  Fascinating watching but I have a nagging feeling that the stakes are very high for the south of England on this one.  Miss out next week and then we’re on to feb …….

...for "potential" longevity, that option of a deeper digging trough is the way to go. That is definitely the call if the trend had been that way.

[LRD]

Ensembles are actually pretty good. A bit better than the 6z (this is up to 21st)

[Gowon]

1 minute ago, Andy8472 said:

Meanwhile the normal zonal train CFS for feb looks blocked

That's America, we can't see what's happening over here.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Amazed how some oop norf don’t get this 

ask Andy in Penrith if he was happy the early dec trough made it to the south of England 

it would have been better still had it got to Paris and beyond - then those surprise snowfalls could have cropped up all the way down to the south coast 

quite

[Andy8472]

i was referring to the blocked Atlantic, I'm aware it's the US 

[Geordiesnow]

I got to say, I'm not the biggest fan of the mean charts because of how they are interpreted. Bear in mind it's largely based on ensembles which can widely vary then I don't think it tells us a great deal. I've seen posts on different days the mean is excellent, the mean is not so good and for me it tells me very little.

As I said, the main uncertainty in the output is the strength of any northerly flow, I still favour a weaker flow with high pressure to close because most runs have suggested that so far but that's not to say it can't change for better or worse.

The trends today have so far been more positive we may get the convective northerly again but it's far from nailed that is for sure.

[Snowman.]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Absolutely..

We want that trough dropping through Scandy as far south as possible..

That  would benefit much more of the country.. 

Longevity too, I believe this also killed the Boxing Day channel low from 2021. 
 

We’ve come so far, the further that thing drops the colder it will be; thus leading to more surprises for all. 

[sheikhy]

Ecm looking bloody fantastic at 72 hours!!!going to be a holy grail run!!!!!

[Spah1]

13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

@Met4Cast - roll with the muppetry. It doesn’t matter how many times some folk on here are advised not to jump on every micro detail change at 240h. It still happens despite the solid ongoing signal. If current anticipated synoptics are not good enough then I hate to think how people are going to react in the future to the 85-90% of seasons with more typical patterns.

All good. Trough still dropping down the eastern side of a significant block. Good times.

You really think it’s a significant block? I was just looking at the models and the heights don’t seem to be robust and drain away over time. 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, MidnightSnow said:

GFS12z is an absolute snorker

Well I thought so! Guess it depends what you want. If you are content with one cold and snowy week, then the GFS is awesome tonight. If you want a reprise of 1947 (as some seem to have as their bar) then naturally even the cold and snow on the GFS won't be enough

[Mcconnor8]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm looking bloody fantastic at 72 hours!!!going to be a holy grail run!!!!!

Low further South West than all the other models so shouldn't get in the way I don't think

[Gowon]

11 minutes ago, Andy8472 said:

i was referring to the blocked Atlantic, I'm aware it's the US 

Doh!

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Low further South West than all the other models so shouldn't get in the way I don't think

However we won't want it filling in situ.. could throw up some ridging in front of it that cause issues for cold air heading south.. I say come on if you think you can.  But keep low through bay of biscay pretty please 

Edited January 8 by TSNWK

[Lukesluckybunch]

Come on ecm..go up the right road this time!

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, IDO said:

...for "potential" longevity, that option of a deeper digging trough is the way to go. That is definitely the call if the trend had been that way.

It was at one point …..it could still be but time is now against us on the first drop - can’t rule out a second go post day 11/12 

[North Easterly Breeze]

Wonderful battleground on the GFS 210.