Moans, ramps and banter

[shawty1984]

I'll hold my hands up, don't have a clue how to read a weather map, but the model thread is ridiculous. You can have booms, bins, 2010s/1947 comparisons and its just stupid. You get given a date of when something might happen and then all knowledge of that date is denied with a new date given to which they say it was always that date anyway.  There is some knowledgeable posters in there, but the vast majority are just posting for the sake of it. 

In December, they were talking about how January was going to turn out. Living in the North East of England, I've not seen a flake of snow and hardly a frost in January yet and it won't be till the 14th till it gets colder, which while things can change, looks watered down to less than a week of cold and back milder again till they say February, that's not how January was painted to be by them.

[Malarky]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

What’s been shown is the means are king! 

They have been rock solid in the face of some odd runs, shortwaves, bulges in the ops. But the closer we have got the more the ops have firmed up on what was showing 10 days ago!

 

This cold spell has some legs to go yet! 
 

1-0 GDSM on this years chases!

Have you got anything planned for the big day Scott? Hopefully someone in the village has put some bunting up with your face on.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

Have you got anything planned for the big day Scott? Hopefully someone in the village has put some bunting up with your face on.

I live in Rotherham mate we can’t afford bunting!

Someone might craft somet out of the local rag!

2 minutes ago, Rexx said:

What kind of dog is it? I can help if it's a big one.

Oh it’s a big dog hahaha! It’s a Labradoodle! Full of ADHD!

Edited January 11 by Scott Ingham

[Osca31]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Cold and dry? Rubbish

A nice chart for the barren North.

[Rexx]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

I live in Rotherham mate we can’t afford bunting!

Someone might craft somet out of the local rag!

Oh it’s a big dog hahaha! It’s a Labradoodle! Full of ADHD!

Got one of these I can put up for you.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Rexx said:

Got one of these I can put up for you.

that’s the community spirit! I knew I could rely on my Rotherham brethren!

[saintkip]

Looks dry and cold for 5/6 days, how disappointing, the low to the south stays over France and no fun and games. What’s the point of extending the cold spell  but having no snow?  2 more Frosts before it warms up.  I’d rather it was mild throughout at least I won’t freeze my nuts off at work 

[mbrothers]

2 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Looks dry and cold for 5/6 days, how disappointing, the low to the south stays over France and no fun and games. What’s the point of extending the cold spell  but having no snow?  2 more Frosts before it warms up.  I’d rather it was mild throughout at least I won’t freeze my nuts off at work 

Keep positive 

[Djdazzle]

Regardless of the modelling, what is likely next week is quite pitiful compared to what was almost promised by some on here. Back in the 80's, this would be nothing notable.

Lessons for next time:

The models grossly overestimated the Greenland blocking strength and longevity.

The teleconnections don't guarantee anything.

[JoeShmoe]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

 

Lessons for next time:

The models grossly overestimated the Greenland blocking strength and longevity.

The teleconnections don't guarantee anything.

Some people have been saying that for weeks (but were shot down as pessimists)

[cobbett]

26 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Looks dry and cold for 5/6 days, how disappointing, the low to the south stays over France and no fun and games. What’s the point of extending the cold spell  but having no snow?  2 more Frosts before it warms up.  I’d rather it was mild throughout at least I won’t freeze my nuts off at work 

Yep bit like looking forward to seeing  a double act and only one shows up 

[IanT]

Plenty of forecasts made here, but I haven’t seen anyone making promises.

Almost without exception posters say “The models show…” or “If this chart verifies…”. Interpreting such statements as promises is such a needy and immature character trait…

[Weather Enthusiast91]

I am happy for the dry and cold weather to last up to March. Not that it's all that cold anyway. It's just normal winter weather and nothing like the cold spells we used to get during old school winters.

Sure, snow would be nice but at least it's finally stopped raining. Just wear suitable clothing and you'll be fine.

Edited January 12 by Weather Enthusiast91

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

I am happy for the dry and cold weather to last up to March. Not that it's all that cold anyway. It's just normal winter weather and nothing like the cold spells we used to get during old school winters.

Sure, snow would be nice but at least it's finally stopped raining. Just wear suitable clothing and you'll be fine.

rain back with flooding soon, from around 20th with double figure temps

[snowblizzard]

Looks like we will be back to the usual Westerly, Atlantic driven regime by next weekend!  

Cold spells from the North rarely bring lasting frigid cold spells to the South of UK!

Deep cold pools from E/NE are far more likely to deliver extreme cold and potential snow cover.

But, in reality, how many times in recent years has a cold spell in the Southern half of UK lasted more the 5/6 days?   

 

Edited January 12 by snowblizzard

[In Absence of True Seasons]

14 hours ago, markw2680 said:

Personally I cannot stand northerly’s it’s always just wishbone crap, I know people say disturbances set up in the flow but for many central areas it’s poo. I’d take a big dump even if it turns milder after, much rather that than just boring cold blue sky crap lol

How is blue sky wintry conditions 'crap'?

Obviously preference is preference, but we had virtually the entirety of December, and beginning of Jan, comprising mild, dark, dull and wet conditions. 

I didn't see a single scrap of sun or blue sky for about 4-weeks solid. Just 10-14/15c, cloudy and drizzle 24/7. That's boring.

A cold blue sky day in winter in England is an absolute rarity.

[Gowon]

1 hour ago, IanT said:

Plenty of forecasts made here, but I haven’t seen anyone making promises.

Almost without exception posters say “The models show…” or “If this chart verifies…”. Interpreting such statements as promises is such a needy and immature character trait…

Well said.

[Paul]

11 hours ago, shawty1984 said:

I'll hold my hands up, don't have a clue how to read a weather map, but the model thread is ridiculous. You can have booms, bins, 2010s/1947 comparisons and its just stupid. You get given a date of when something might happen and then all knowledge of that date is denied with a new date given to which they say it was always that date anyway.  There is some knowledgeable posters in there, but the vast majority are just posting for the sake of it. 

In December, they were talking about how January was going to turn out. Living in the North East of England, I've not seen a flake of snow and hardly a frost in January yet and it won't be till the 14th till it gets colder, which while things can change, looks watered down to less than a week of cold and back milder again till they say February, that's not how January was painted to be by them.

You're obviously very determined to make your point, so I guess I'll bite.

Have a read back of what you're saying here. Basically, what you're moaning about is that some weather enthusiasts in a discussion forum, posting about the models, which chop and change daily, didn't provide you with a guarantee that what they were interested in/enthusiastic about/discussing 10 days ago would definitely happen on the day they said it may. 

I'm sorry you've not seen snow, but seriously it's not the fault of the people in the model thread, or of the models, it's called the weather. It changes, and it's hard to forecast. If it wasn't, then there'd be no point discussing it. 

Oh, and yes, of course people are posting for the sake of it - they enjoy discussing the models, and some even get a bit carried away with it! But they're not offering a service, asking for payment for their posts, and they're not forcing anyone to read them. If you don't like all or some of the posts being made, you're welcome not to read them. There are ways to block posters, ignore threads, and curate your own list of members and topics you want to follow if you like. You're also free to view the models and post your thoughts on them as well. It's an open forum. All we ask is that people stay on topic and follow the community guidelines and as a moderation team we try to keep things flowing as smoothly as we can. It's not perfect, but none of us are, and therefore, the sum of our parts here probably shouldn't be expected to be either.

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[JoeShmoe]

Have to say im not a fan of sub zero daytime temps with no snow, its just cold and icy and frankly unpleasant where you need some form of heating all the time.

Its like when its over 35c and humid in summer with no storms but in reverse and that's unpleasant too

[Penicuikblizzard]

4 minutes ago, JoeShmoe said:

Have to say im not a fan of sub zero daytime temps with no snow, its just cold and icy and frankly unpleasant where you need some form of heating all the time.

Its like when its over 35c and humid in summer with no storms but in reverse and that's unpleasant too

That’s generally what happens with a Northerly living in the Central belt sadly dry and cold

[Weather-history]

Well it seems that with most winter seasons,  there is a "watchword" or "phrase" for that winter.

OPI, torpedo, etc

It seems this winter, it is "Iberian high or heights"  

 

Edited January 12 by Weather-history

[shawty1984]

21 minutes ago, Paul said:

You're obviously very determined to make your point, so I guess I'll bite.

Have a read back of what you're saying here. Basically, what you're moaning about is that some weather enthusiasts in a discussion forum, posting about the models, which chop and change daily, didn't provide you with a guarantee that what they were interested in/enthusiastic about/discussing 10 days ago would definitely happen on the day they said it may. 

I'm sorry you've not seen snow, but seriously it's not the fault of the people in the model thread, or of the models, it's called the weather. It changes, and it's hard to forecast. If it wasn't, then there'd be no point discussing it. 

Oh, and yes, of course, people are posting for the sake of it - they enjoy discussing the models, and some even get a bit carried away with it! But they're not offering a service, asking for payment for their posts, and they're not forcing anyone to read them. If you don't like all or some of the posts being made, you're welcome not to read them. There are ways to block posters, ignore threads, and curate your own list of members and topics you want to follow if you like. You're also free to view the models and post your thoughts on them as well. It's an open forum. All we ask is that people stay on topic and follow the community guidelines and as a moderation team we try to keep things flowing as smoothly as we can. It's not perfect, but none of us are, and therefore, the sum of our parts here probably shouldn't be expected to be either.

Useful links:
Following members and viewing their content
Ignoring members

I had the post deleted twice, of course I want to air my views. 

The problem you have is you take no action on those posters who are doing nothing but being unrealistic. It's been like this for years now. A boom here or a bin there and every time cold is sniffed at by the models, it gets compared to every notable event we've ever had. It's totally unrealistic and is unfair for those that are visiting but don't know how to read models. 

I'm not bothered I've not seen snow, I'm bothered about how cold weather is portrayed on here. As stated, the goal posts are moved to suit the agenda. If they were just moved with a we got it slightly wrong, that's fine, but they are moved and denied that they got it wrong until people follow suit into believing that the second date given was always the correct date. 

I'm not here to expect posters to say its going to snow on 12th February 2024. But it seems (things can still change) that January didn't turn out as was portrayed and that's partly fault of those that are booming, binning or comparing every evidence of cold to those past notable events. 

[SizzlingHeat]

Quite frankly this tedious and compulsive chasing for cold and snow has gone on for long enough now. The charts are showing pretty cold and benign conditions for the vast majority next week before the inevitable milder and wetter breakdown commences from the following week. The chances of snow for the majority are looking slim given the current output. The low to the south is now suggested to stay south enough and the northerly not long or potent enough to produce snow to anybody except usual areas during northerlies. This is probably the longest I have spent observing the model output for the best part of 2 years now, and yet again with disappointment which is the reason I took significant time away to begin with. The obsession and compulsion at every model and every update has become compulsive and adversely affecting productivity in life and work, so I'm going to slap myself in my face and get back to living life away from the ever chase of illusive snow and meteociel. What ever will be will be, but I suppose the positives are that it's cold and dry for most which will alleviate flooding concerns for the time being at least. For the lucky few that get some flurries over the next 7 days, well enjoy. The rest of us will enjoy driving our frosty cars on snowless roads to the office until the wet and windy weather returns. I'm off to live a normal life again. Adios

[DIS1970]

Wouldn't lose any sleep over this timid threat of snow now, it's starting to fall in line with the weather the country has had prior to this cooler spell.

[Paul]

29 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

The problem you have is you take no action on those posters who are doing nothing but being unrealistic. It's been like this for years now. A boom here or a bin there and every time cold is sniffed at by the models, it gets compared to every notable event we've ever had. It's totally unrealistic and is unfair for those that are visiting but don't know how to read models. 

We do try to move ott ramps into this very thread. But equally, what you're describing in many cases is weather enthusiasts getting a bit over enthusiastic for a weather type they love. What would you have us do, remove all the emotion, moderate every instance of someone getting somewhat excited? Where would we draw the line, how would we draw the line?

29 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

I'm not bothered I've not seen snow, I'm bothered about how cold weather is portrayed on here. As stated, the goal posts are moved to suit the agenda. If they were just moved with a we got it slightly wrong, that's fine, but they are moved and denied that they got it wrong until people follow suit into believing that the second date given was always the correct date. 

I can't say I've seen much of that sort of thing happening on here in 20 years. The reason for that is that most people know and accept that the models chop and change, and if dates x days ahead are talked about, it's on the basis of what the models are showing at the time. If you've misunderstood that and taken it to mean a guarantee of some sort of weather type on a particular date, then it's unfortunate and I can understand the disappointment, but hopefully next time you'll have a better understanding of the dynamic nature of weather forecasting and the models.

29 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

I'm not here to expect posters to say its going to snow on 12th February 2024. But it seems (things can still change) that January didn't turn out as was portrayed and that's partly fault of those that are booming, binning or comparing every evidence of cold to those past notable events. 

But once again, you're welcome to read what you like and draw the conclusions you wish to from those posts. All you're reading is thoughts on an open discussion about the model output from weather enthusiasts. Some have more knowledge than others, some get overly excited at the prospect of snow and cold, some may even post things which aren't an accurate representation of what the models they're describing are actually showing. But that's the nature of the beast, it's a discussion forum.

29 minutes ago, shawty1984 said:

I had the post deleted twice, of course I want to air my views. 

Indeed, but as I mentioned above, everyone's posts need to be on topic and within the guidelines. Even these posts are outside of those, as this thread isn't for moaning about other members. You're of course welcome to post your feedback and any specific thoughts about the moderation of the model thread in the team contact forum, it's what it's there for.