Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

[CoventryWeather]

It seems the morning runs, especially the GFS and ECM going for the wedge to the north by day 10, bringing in a chill from the east. I would suspect this to become a noticeable trend in the coming days - I'm not expecting any 'milder' interludes and feel a cold spell is truly on, whether you're in the north or on the south coast. 

Continued uncertainty on the Greenland high, always is due to lack of data.. but I feel a wedge over Greenland much more efficient than a large high.. my personal preference. 

GFS06z is a delightful run for anyone. 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

1 hour ago, TillyS said:

I mean, strictly speaking the CET is above average. Has been well above average for the first third of the month: 

Met Office Hadley Centre Central England Temperature Data Download

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 

It has felt really cold these past two days in the south, and in some cases and places has been cold, but empirically speaking not very. And temps are nudging upwards this week. So, no, not ideal ahead of the apparent snow event next week.

We need deep embedded cold. This isn’t that.

 

Unfortunately that's a misunderstanding as the CET on that tracker hasn't been updated since the 2nd January. Therefore I think it is deriving an 8.2 average from the 1st (8.0) and 2nd (8.4). The current CET is far closer to average and should be below average by some point next week. 

[Battleground Snow]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

I don't think short term upgrades are off the table either,

Arpege showing a much stronger block into greeny 

Edited January 10 by Battleground Snow

[ICE COLD]

6z is a great run cold throughout and still going strong at day 14 with probably more to come

[Rob 79812010]

15 minutes ago, February1978 said:

This isn't right. The 8.2C figure in the mild and wet start of the month just hasn't been updated. It will be much lower now.

Yeah, its stuck from 3rd. 

[TallPaul]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Wowzers! It's suddenly hit home... Development's now in the reliable, and under way thick and fast!

[Rayth]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What happened with that? could of sworn i saw an amber warning, did they get the area wrong or was it that it was such a pasting that it should have been a red?

Was a major incident declared , 7000+ without power and 100s cut off , should have been a red indeed , numerous trapped in cars and multiple roads impassable 

Edited January 10 by Rayth

[NewEra21]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Troughs lining up like buses in the flow, on a direct route for the UK. Beautiful!

[Bricriu]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That is a beauty of a fax chart.  Northerly plunge very much in charge.

Look at north tip of Scotland…trough number 1…that’s really cold air behind that

 

BFTP

Could be polar low territory with that!

[Rob 79812010]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

Yeah, its stuck from 3rd. 

We're down to average at this stage. Last week of Jan should determine whether a cold, slightly cold or near average month

[Summer Sun]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What happened with that? could of sworn i saw an amber warning, did they get the area wrong or was it that it was such a pasting that it should have been a red?

It caught them out as they rushed said warning out after the event had started.

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I'm sure many in here will agree this is the best outcome for 'all' because it brings snow to the south east 

Common conception is that frontal snow is bad because it always means a return to mild weather, which simply isn't true. Plus, frontal snow doesn't need as cold an airmass as convective snow.

Just things that frustrate me in this forum. It would though be surprising if there weren't other smaller features popping up in such an unstable and messy looking flow. They're just always likely to be more localised and often but not always smaller amount of snow than from a front.

Seems to be more than the Southeast look at the north! Scotland N England it wants to shut down most areas here .  The earlier GFS straight-line Northerlies were showing mainly cold dry conditions for most E/NEly seems much better for much more areas even western areas there

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

I'm sure many in here will agree this is the best outcome for 'all' because it brings snow to the south east 

Common conception is that frontal snow is bad because it always means a return to mild weather, which simply isn't true. Plus, frontal snow doesn't need as cold an airmass as convective snow.

Just things that frustrate me in this forum. It would though be surprising if there weren't other smaller features popping up in such an unstable and messy looking flow.

Jeeze   you have a real thing about the south east..  if 06z lands I'm sure that everyone from Plymouth to Inverness is in with a chance of at  least one safe snow event that will only be forecasted 72 hour out. Yes some will get nothing but it is a safer option.. personally I want us all from South to North to in the game and removing risky  frontal events helps on that IMHO:)

[IW Met]

Im certainly not one to ramp or anything, but I do find it rather interesting that the latest GFS somewhat resembles this in 1881.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

Archives NOAA NCEP de 1836 à maintenant

By no means am I saying it will be anything like that! But it goes to show how patterns like this can evolve if everything is just right.
Retrogressing high to greenland followed by a gently declining pressure up that way and a crazily south tracking jet.
 

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:

Troughs lining up like buses in the flow, on a direct route for the UK. Beautiful!

Precisely.. pop ups in the flow that the global models never pick up at long-range 

[Malarky]

2 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Seems to be more than the Southeast look at the north! Scotland N England it wants to shut down most areas here .  The earlier GFS straight-line Northerlies were showing mainly cold dry conditions for most E/NEly seems much better for much more areas even western areas there

GFS like a siren this morning, wanting us all to get carried away with ourselves. Let’s hope there’s no trick up her sleeve in the next couple of days.

[mountain shadow]

11 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Very, very good 06z. very very good day 4 FAX..

Much cleaner transition to the Northerly than the GFS or ECM.

[bradymk]

Quite noteworthy imo that GFS is persisting with the increase in heights again to either our west, north / north east day 10 +

Especially given it's tendency to revert to 'normal' at that stage and given that only a few days ago, it was showing a return to flat unsettled pattern at the end of GFS runs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

11 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

What model do you think that is closest too,

06z for 16th

 

BFTP

[Malarky]

@Nick where are we at in Star Wars now after “that fax” and 06z?

[Rayth]

1 minute ago, Malarky said:

@Nick where are we at in Star Wars now after “that fax” and 06z?

return of the jedi 

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Much cleaner transition to the Northerly than the GFS or ECM.

That was derived from yesterdays 12z 

it will look different this evening at T96 - maybe not too much as the issues with ridges and shortwaves is after this timescale when the northerly is ‘clean’

[Malarky]

2 minutes ago, Rayth said:

return of the jedi 

Let’s hope they haven’t figured out how to launch short waves from the Death Star!

[damianslaw]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What happened with that? could of sworn i saw an amber warning, did they get the area wrong or was it that it was such a pasting that it should have been a red?

There was a yellow warning for west half of the county, a couple of cms at best, on the Sat morning this changed to cover parts further east, after about 3-4 hours of heavy snow, with totals up to 6 inches, an amber warning suddenly appeared but the damage had been done, the met won't admit it, but they were caught out big time..

Alas back to the models, the key theme emerging is a sustained southerly tracking jet, with this most of the UK I imagine will be locked on the cold side for the forseeable. We could well end up with a slack trough scenario - snowfalls popping up all over the place, a forecasters headache.. as others say ' get the cold in first', and see what happens. 

Edited January 10 by damianslaw

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, Rayth said:

return of the jedi 

**return of the SLEDi

As others have mentioned - probably dry throughout for southern areas if the low is modelled further and further south which imo is the likely option. Copious snowfall for north and west facing coasts. Maybe disturbances in the flow which could bring more widespread snowfall for more inland areas. General theme is cold and dry. 

Edited January 10 by Eskimo