Moans, ramps and banter

[WYorksWeather]

 Daniel* It depends on what you mean by 'cold', I suppose. A cold March relative to more recent averages like 1991-2020 is of course perfectly possible, though not especially likely, with a recent probability somewhere between about 1 in 5 and 1 in 3 depending on how far back you look.

A cold March (or any month), relative to 1961-1990, is now extremely rare, on the order of an expectation of one such month a year, or possibly even less. Even at a slightly longer term horizon prior to 2021, we were only seeing a couple of months a year. So that probability is now always very low, and in months with a significant temperature gradient from start to end like March, we would need a cold start to be in with a chance.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

Well I've been cold today. Went out to the bin and. Chickens and a cold breeze. I even put the heating on. That said ... I had a shock when I stood on the scales to find out I have lost 5lb and am now 7st 1lb!!!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 SunnyG This pains me but your right 

[East Lancs Rain]

3 minutes ago, raz.org.rain said:

I'm getting the impression that we could be in for a pretty intense summer if things continue to go the way they're going.

It is for that same reason that I’m getting the feeling we could be in for a really bad washout summer this year. A repeat of June 2012, July 2023 and August 2008 on the cards? Let’s hope not.

[raz.org.rain]

 East Lancs Rain there's a few really excellent posts by @CryoraptorA303 that provide a very insightful breakdown. I'm sure they're sick of me tagging them on this subject now though!

[WYorksWeather]

 raz.org.rain I have a feeling you could be right. There are a number of records that we've come close to over the past few years, and I do wonder if we might be able to knock a few of them out this summer. In particular, I do wonder when the last of the records from 1976 will go, primarily warmest ever CET summer at 17.7C, the June absolute maximum of 35.6C, and the 12 consecutive days over 32C.

It could be this year, but in any case, I don't think those records will survive this decade. They have all survived numerous near misses over the past decade or so. 2003, 2006, 2022 and 2018 were all within half a degree of the CET record. The June absolute maximum recently came close to falling in 2017 with an absolute maximum of 34.5C on 21st June. And 2018 saw an incredible consistency of heat at times, but not quite enough to break 12 consecutive days over 32C.

They're impressive records, and they've done well to survive the 21st century so far. But I don't think the stay of execution will last much longer.

[WYorksWeather]

 East Lancs Rain It's quite hard to bet against a warm summer, and the chance of notably hot is much greater than usual, simply given the global warmth at the moment. But precipitation is much harder to call. It could be a mixed summer but with the wetter spells still being warm.

Struggle to see how we could get anything anybody would reasonably call cool given the background to this year. Unsettled and/or not especially sunny can never be ruled out, though. After all this is Britain and not Spain or Portugal.

In any case, to bring things back to the models, from a weather usability perspective, a shocking week next week from the looks of things. Colder than of late but only back to seasonal norms, so little chance of any snow, but also no longer mild enough to have the feel of spring.

Even worse, some very significant rainfall totals yet again, almost guaranteeing that we'll end with a wetter than average February. Probably a ton more flooding given the already waterlogged ground. Some of my favourite walks have been impassable for months, and others very muddy, which is not something I find pleasant.

Forget warm, I don't even mind cold and frosty weather as long as we can stay dry for a while at some point in the spring.

What a period of weather this last few months has been...

[East Lancs Rain]

It’s 2 am, 8°C outside and I can hear the  birds chirping outside.. In February.

[KTtom]

Question... just reading the latest off topic posts in the Mod thread, why is someone who doesnt insist we are going into the freezer a 'Troll' ??

[sunnijim]

In a tribute to the late, great Steve Wright and the iconic Mr Angry.

What better morning to give a view on this waste of Winter than a  walk in the fog and drizzle well in keeping that the dross that has been a staple diet since November.

4/10

That would be my score.

I should just say that I am a fan of all things 'interesting' weather wise, not just a snow chase.

So named storms, thundery downpours, and of course cold sunny winter days with snow an added bonus.

4/10  with the bar set so low that  a few wind gusts of 60mph and some decent frosts and cold sunny days in December and January.

Named storms have amounted to diddly squat here and the snow chase has amounted to somthing akin to dandruff on my dressing gown as I stepped outside to inspect it.

I'm aware that some parts further North had a decent fall ( peaks in December) and one named storm caused local impacts over Ireland and Scotland.

I'm never setting the bar at a 62_63 winter or a great storm of 87 but this year really has seen all potential from models downgraded to cheap sausages instead of steak.

A muddy puddle this morning.

 

Edited February 17 by sunnijim

[SunnyG]

 KTtom For the same reason as I was branded a troll here once by someone who didn't like my preference for mild weather. In the mod thread they consider their topic exclusive to coldies and any dissident a troll. C'est la vie

[James1979]

 raz.org.rain it has been thus for 15 years. All addictions are hard to conquer.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 sunnijim 4/10 is very generous imo! Outside of the cold and sunny spell in Jan, it's been one of the dullest, greyest, most monotonous periods of weather I can recall in my whole life. Factoring in also, that these conditions have effectively been in place all the way since October...

The named storms I wouldn't even classify as something of interest, not in my area at least, because they were just 24-48 hours of the same ol' but a little more unsettled - aka cloud, wind and rain albeit more severe. 

Absolute dross Winter in my book. 2/10 max, and that's purely because of the 7-10 day sunny and cold spell in Jan, the only saving grace of the last few months. If not for that, this would be a solid 1/10: 3-4 months of mild, cloudy, windy and rainy muck. 

[Methuselah]

It looks as if the Madsters are polishing their measuring sticks, again.  

[WYorksWeather]

Yet another ridiculously mild day today. Already some spots hitting 13-14C.

[Atmogenic]

 WYorksWeather too bad the weather is yuck today unlike yesterday

[WYorksWeather]

 Atmogenic Definitely variable by location. Overcast here but forecast to stay dry until late afternoon.

[cheese]

 Atmogenic We've had some sunshine this morning, currently overcast though. Not expecting any rain here until after dark.

Also noticed the Met Office have removed the rain warning for here. Only applies to southern England now.

Edited February 17 by cheese

[stewfox]

Biggest waste of €2 this winter

[East Lancs Rain]

Currently 11°C here but, surprise, surprise. It’s overcast… At least it’s dry though. For now…

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 East Lancs Rain I heard them last night too!!

 stewfox Like the snow sledge in my loft ... didn't bother even getting it out ...

[raz.org.rain]

 KTtom I spotted that too, rather disconcerting.

 Methuselah time to follow the garden path one last time before the lawnmower and deckchairs come out for spring 

[johncam]

 WYorksWeather a cold March now would have been a normal march pre 90's

[raz.org.rain]

"First part of March liable to see a slightly higher than normal likelihood of winds from the west then edging northerly later in the period. This likely leading to initially unsettled conditions with transitory settled periods and typically average temperatures in the Atlantic flow, cooler at times in northern regions, before increasing likelihood of colder and drier than average conditions from mid-month."

 

 Praise the Lord, suggestion of something drier on the horizon.

[ANYWEATHER]

7 hours ago, sunnijim said:

downgraded to cheap sausages instead of steak.

Must admit ,I don't mind a few chup sausages.......