Moans, ramps and banter

[markyo]

Utterly dreading this upcoming summer...got a bad bad feeling it is going to be awful temp and humidity wise. Not in a good place at the moment after this none winter again, climate change? How many times could you see your breath in the morning this winter?...very very few that's the answer

[SollyOlly]

 markyo Completely with you, mate. I'm almost fearing summer. Prolonged heat...please not! 

[Dark Horse]

 markyo the UK the land of no winter. Yeah I'm not looking forward to seeing all that heat building over Spain and then surging north. Seems to be a yearly thing now. Temps in the 20s will suit me just fine. Problem is it rarely happens like that. It's usually temps in the high teens and then suddenly were in the midst of a 35c+ heatwave. Huge yo-yo changes.

 

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 SollyOlly Definitely feel for you guys who don't fare well or don't like the hotter weather... because when we haven't had much of a proper winter, it just adds insult to injury.

For my own personal preferences, I enjoy both the cold and the heat so I'm at the point where if we aren't going to have any true wintry conditions, may as well just be warm and sunny in my book, as opposed to 12c and cloudy. But that's just me as I like both ends of the weather/temp spectrum. 

At least if we have an April like 2021 we could still get some frostiness yet, albeit too late in the year for proper wintry weather.

Edited February 17 by In Absence of True Seasons

[raz.org.rain]

 Dark Horse there's already a strong suggestion among the analogs for a hot and dry summer. Admittedly, I do wonder what the limit of extremes would be for the UK and whether or not that'll be tested through summer. Considering that so far, 1995, 2003 and 2022 are very strong analogs, I'd imagine it's worth preparing for that while we can.

[*Stormforce~beka*]

STOP WITH THE RAIN!!!!!!!!!!!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 *Stormforce~beka* We live in Bogland now, it's the new normal 

[TwisterGirl81]

 raz.org.rain I’ll be preparing…by dusting off my flip flops, summer dresses and garden parasol  we must be due a long dry warm spell this summer, a wet one would be like a slap in the face after this autumn and winter…surely spring will be dryer?

Edited February 17 by TwisterGirl81

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons Im honestly getting depressed. My patio is pure mud!!!

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 *Stormforce~beka* beautiful, think of the moss and snails that it's giving home to

[In Absence of True Seasons]

 raz.org.rain Is there any basis behind the suggestions? Not denying it, just curious tbh. Because let's be honest, the models can and do fall off the rails even just a few days out. So I don't know to what measure any predictions can be made about the weather patterns in 4/5/6 months time?

Statistically speaking, you'd think a drier and sunnier summer would be on the cards, as just from a "law of averages" perspective it'd be rare to have a repeat of high-summer 2023. It'd also be rare to have another 2022. Somewhere in between both these years is what I'd put my money on, tbh.

 

[raz.org.rain]

 In Absence of True Seasons seems we can't quote posts between threads anymore so I'll have to link 

This is one of the better breakdowns of the methodology behind analog comparisons.

[Harsh Climate]

Never seen Neteather so quiet in heart of winter before, seems like people have finally smelt the coffee and started not to believe absolute nonsense 'mountain torque, angular momentum... forecasts..... Where if they can find a shred of 'current weather' backing up their predictions,  they then build that into their forecast methods!! Glad this lunacy has seemingly come to an end. The weather will do what it will do, you can't use a 'sole driver'out of 1000s and build a forecast entirely from it!... (Like thunderstorm activity has increased in the sub-tropics so we are going to get northern blocking in 2 weeks time!!!!).. 

Edited February 17 by Harsh Climate

[Metwatch]

Just been out to the usual surrounding countryside area for a walk just outside the city. An insane amount of standing water on some paths, made worse by some foresty work they're doing in one of the woods with vehicles often driving on them.

Whether the spring Is particularly mild or not throughout, I think any sane person would want something much drier very soon, do we agree?!

Edited February 17 by Metwatch

[In Absence of True Seasons]

Woah the upcoming forecast looks an absolutely cracker, folks. 

 

[Methuselah]

But they haven't made any predictions. There's a stark difference between predictions and diagnostics; what folks choose to do with those diagnostics is up to them. . . 

[CharlieBear9]

 Harsh Climate The quiet should please some of the posters on here.

[raz.org.rain]

 In Absence of True Seasons surprised to see double digit maxima forecast for the upcoming colder spell, I would've expected maybe 9° or 8°.

[lawrenk]

 Methuselah Never mind all that cobblers, is it going to snow imby or not?

[Methuselah]

 lawrenk No idea!

[lawrenk]

 Methuselah Me neither, good here innit!

[raz.org.rain]

 lawrenk I can guarantee rain and overcast for the foreseeable!

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons No chance! The chickens live on it . They poo on it, kick soil and wood chip from the garden. It's an awful mess

[*Stormforce~beka*]

 In Absence of True Seasons bloody hell 

 lawrenk LOLOL

[WYorksWeather]

 In Absence of True Seasons You're right that no forecast can say with any great certainty what we'd expect for the summer. However, we have the very warm global context for a start. We then add to that analogues / pattern matching which apparently is matching 1995, 2003 and 2022 (not sure how much credence I give to that, but some people do). We also add the long-range models, though they are quite lacking in skill.

In short, I would say that there is an above average chance of a notably warmer than average summer, but that's far from a guarantee, of course. And I wouldn't be surprised if it still ends up near normal for rainfall or wetter than average, despite being mild. There's no strong signal for anything dry as far as I can tell.

If we are going to have a very warm summer, I'd prefer it to be more like a better version of 2023, with more spells of weather like that of June, with moderate heatwaves into the low 30s, than lots of changeable weather interspersed with ridiculous heat spikes into the mid or upper 30s.

It should be noted, for instance, that 36C or higher was recorded in only two years in the entire 20th century. Heatwaves of that severity are really not part of the typical British climate, we don't have the setup really to cope with them, and I frankly prefer not to have them in terms of weather experience. Though of course they are interesting from a historic / record perspective.