North East England Cold Spell Discussion

[John Snow]

Yep, the BBC is one of the worst who are guilty to underestimate snow showers on their graphics however i feel they are probably closer to the mark on this occasion.

I don't expect tomorrow to be full of showers around here and the sunny breaks between any showers will probably be large than usually.

We might get a dusting or 1CM of snow if we are lucky but nothing disruptive i would of thought.

According to the NW radar accumulation chart you are going to get 7cm of snow in the next 12 hrs

[Cloud 10]

Something wintry on the radar over the northeast,first signs of the colder air digging in?

[Geordiesnow]

According to the NW radar accumulation chart you are going to get 7cm of snow in the next 12 hrs

I would not read too much into those charts, i would be lucky to get a CM never mind 7CM's!!

The ground is very wet also which will also make it difficult for lying snow, i'm kinda hopeful for Saturday though, aslong we got the PPN from the front that is.

[snowmackem]

Why is it that we can have 10 days of exciting build up to a potentially huge snow event here in the North East, only to see it yet again being seemingly downgraded. I mean come on, there is now no sign of daytime below freezing maxima or strong Easterly/Northerly winds bringing frequent,prolonged ,heavy snow showers. Granted we may strike lucky up here and get 3 or 4 cm at low levels, and it may hang around to evaporate rather than melt, but it's hardly going to be North Pole Armageddon is it?

I am gutted, especially when the charts everyone has been watching seem to have been teasing us and not verifying. I know things tend to lessen in intensity as you get closer to them and models firm up a bit, but it's ridiculous this time. I give up, I really do. Even current models are showing a "big freeze", but just like last winter all the fun and games seems to be going to happen "down South".

How come the weather models continue to show such promise at the same time the forecast media ( t.v., BBC,Met Office etc have shown me nothing of interest for the North East at all ?

Confused and disappointed,

Rant over,

Karl

[dave79]

Lol, where is everyone ???

Must all be as fed up as me eh?

Just seen Hannah the Alien bigging up the snow for tomorrow in N.Yorks and Teesside.

Enjoy it, no doubt I'll be watching it on Look North tomorrow night.

Ah well.....

hi snowmackem, hope this is the case but i am starting to doubt the possibility of it happening, I think we on the coast will end up with a boring sleety day as is the case on most occasions, but all fingers and toes are crossed for something good to happen, so happy days anyway

[Alex95]

Lol, where is everyone ???

Must all be as fed up as me eh?

Just seen Hannah the Alien bigging up the snow for tomorrow in N.Yorks and Teesside.

Enjoy it, no doubt I'll be watching it on Look North tomorrow night.

Ah well.....

How kind

I wish there was someone with more meteorological knowledge though

Edited December 16, 2009 by alza

[PersianPaladin]

I would not read too much into those charts, i would be lucky to get a CM never mind 7CM's!!

The ground is very wet also which will also make it difficult for lying snow, i'm kinda hopeful for Saturday though, aslong we got the PPN from the front that is.

Don't count on it.

Remember what happened last time we had a front come down from Scotland? It built up, and then its eastern flank rapidly decayed and broke up east of the Pennines and continued to weaken. However, as soon as it headed towards South Yorkshire the whole band exploded in size and the midlands got a pasting whilst we got diddly squat.

[paul tall]

I remember that bloody event. It seperated 5 miles north of your house. Oh there was some tears and tantrums that night. <_< Got into Yorkshire and joined up again, Grab my Graupel was sat there only 30 odd miles south of us boasting of all the snow that was falling only an hour after it skipped by us.

One day PP, ONE DAY!!

[Alex95]

Don't count on it.

Remember what happened last time we had a front come down from Scotland? It built up, and then its eastern flank rapidly decayed and broke up east of the Pennines and continued to weaken. However, as soon as it headed towards South Yorkshire the whole band exploded in size and the midlands got a pasting whilst we got diddly squat.

Last time snow came down from Scotland was February 12th this year, but there was 3 inches here and 9 inches in parts of Northumberland. That was a good, and completely unforecasted event. I only knew it was going to snow when the flakes starting falling.

Could the event you're talking about be Easter Sunday 2008?

Edited December 16, 2009 by alza

[paul tall]

No it was last winter. I remember it too.

[Geordiesnow]

Don't count on it.

Remember what happened last time we had a front come down from Scotland? It built up, and then its eastern flank rapidly decayed and broke up east of the Pennines and continued to weaken. However, as soon as it headed towards South Yorkshire the whole band exploded in size and the midlands got a pasting whilst we got diddly squat.

I remember that event(unfortunately) but from what i seem to recall from that event, the forecasts were pretty spot on with the PPN band missing us and heading us into Yorkshire. There was a period of light snow/snizzle which gived us a light covering on the grass and roofs but compare what others got further South, it was nothing.

I think this set up is slightly different however and that the models at the moment are having the PPN over us. Also remember the 12th Feb 2009 when the forecasts got it totally wrong with predictions of just light snow and in the end some places got quite a good few hours of snow before it turned to light rain creating a slight thaw but thankfully the PPN band headed south to cause to much damage to the snow cover.

So who knows, i would just like to see some snow showers. Whilst it did look good at one stage, the models downgraded the stength of the easterly only for it to upgrade it again so whilst it won't be as good as it could be. Just think that we won't even be talking about snow if the models did not upgrade.

I don't think it was light winter, it was the winter before that wasnt it?

Edited December 16, 2009 by Geordiesnow

[Alex95]

No it was last winter. I remember it too.

When exactly was this event? I'm curious I'll probably remember it if I'm reminded.

[damianslaw]

As ever in showery set ups it is a very difficult call to make where the precipitation will hit and just how heavy and long lasting it will be.

In these situtations it is simply a case of looking out the window and seeing what the weather is doing, the models rarely forecast showers very well.

I believe that there will be some hefty showers near the coast through the middle of the day many of snow but perhaps rather wet in neature, I also won't be surprised if some homegrown showers develop slightly inland spilling into west durham localities.

Overnight thursday looks the best bet for widespread snow showers across the region.

[Alex95]

Tomorrow reminds me of December 27th 2005, sleet and snow showers throughout the day, due to the fact that there was some sleet the snow only covered the ground temporarily. It did settle properly later on in the day. That day light wintry showers were predicted, but in actual fact the showers were pretty heavy.

[ISAAC]

NW radar showing heavy showers falling as snow in the North East.

Doesn't look right to me!

Someone verify?

Edited December 16, 2009 by ISAAC

[Alex95]

NW radar showing heavy showers falling as snow in the North East.

Doesn't look right to me!

Someone verify?

Still rain in Newcastle (maybe a little bit of sleet but I doubt it). Getting colder though.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I would not be so quick to write off the chance of snow showers feeding in off that slackening ENE flow overnight Thursday/Friday. Overnight 28th/29th December 2005, despite hardly a breath of wind off the North Sea and fairly high pressure, a conveyor belt of snow showers headed across many parts of the region. Another analogy could be the "slow sinker" north-easterly of 19-21 February 1996 (if anyone remembers it). The night of 20/21 February 1996 was forecast to be mainly dry as high pressure was almost on top of the region by then, but instead, snow showers broke out over Tyne & Wear and Northumberland and penetrated quite a long way inland to the south-west.

I think snow cover on Thursday will be restricted to inland parts of the region, but I think the chances of snow coverings near the east coast on Friday still look favourable.

On Saturday the band moving down from the north will probably fall as rain in parts of the west, but I fancy our chances of it staying as snow to the east of the Pennines. Into Sunday and Monday, following a few initial flurries down the east coast, winds will back westerly and some snow showers are likely to make it over the Pennines at times.

Where I will agree with the pessimism is that I don't expect Snowmageddon, but to be honest, my own hopes have been pretty moderate- I would just like to see an inch or more of snow cover that sticks around until the spell breaks down and I still think that is feasible for much of the region. A breakdown after Christmas would be most ideal but it is difficult to call at this stage- but the north will always hold onto the cold air for longest in these setups.

[peterf]

NW radar showing heavy showers falling as snow in the North East.

Doesn't look right to me!

Someone verify?

nah theres nothing up here.temp 4.4c and it's raining lol.

[dave79]

Still rain in Newcastle (maybe a little bit of sleet but I doubt it). Getting colder though.

getting colder down here now, sky's are clearing, wet on the ground, looks like the wind direction has changed now coming in from the coast.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temps across the North East are currently at 5C inland and 6C at the coast so I doubt there will be any sleet involved. The cold air will not start to dig in until around midnight, when we may see the showers turn wintry.

[Moor Driver]

Nothing here either. 4.6c and 3.4 dewpoint doesn't look like anything will happen tonight.

[Snowstorm1]

Temps across the North East are currently at 5C inland and 6C at the coast so I doubt there will be any sleet involved. The cold air will not start to dig in until around midnight, when we may see the showers turn wintry.

Hi mate im upbeat as i live in teeside so im waking up at 6am in the morning to see if it had snowed or snowing and if so ill be happy !

[peterf]

huge sleet downpour here and temps falling away now.

[Tucco]

NW radar showing heavy showers falling as snow in the North East.

Doesn't look right to me!

Someone verify?

Snow will be falling from shrs across N Pennines above about 600m at present. Great Dun Fell has fallen below freezing again. Here I would expect snow from around midnight.

Should be close to an ice day on Thursday.

Mark

Teesdale,Co Durham

[Thundery wintry showers]

Hi mate im upbeat as i live in teeside so im waking up at 6am in the morning to see if it had snowed or snowing and if so ill be happy ! :lol:

You will most likely be disappointed. On the other hand, if you do the same on Friday morning you might not be.