Midlands, East Anglia and Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 4

[Pixel]

2 lows low develop near Iceland 17-18 jan teaser!..+100hrs maybe a little 'action' in Scotland

http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=1

Both lows form a bigger one a little further s/e 21-22nd Jan and it's a second bite of the veritable cherry (-:

Jet kinks south http://www.meteociel...&mode=5&carte=1

could get this:

...snow melts/rains game over for another week obviously joking !!

Edited January 14, 2012 by Pixel Precipitation

[jimben]

Compared to some of the overnight lows in here my minimum of -3.6c was relatively mild. Now lovely cobalt blue skies and log fire blazing - Perfick

[I remember Atlantic 252]

wont manage ice day, temp now -0.6°C, min -4.8°C

should be coldest day mind you of season, currently 16th Dec 2.6C

[Random Images]

Temperature is 7c here in Lowestoft. Which is pretty cold for this winter.

[PolarWarsaw]

Chilly and nice looking frost as I opened the curtains this morning. Frustrated with the model runs this morning though, a couple of runs ago a very cold blast looked likely now returned to the phrase 'Cold Zonality' which means we'l receive precisely jack all in marginal conditions, as per every episode of marginal cold weather, as per december. DIRE.

[Snowangel-MK]

Beautiful day blue sky and sunshine,

still got patches of frost on the grass in the shade, temperature peaked at a balmy 4.1°c...

...it's going to be another cold one tonight here !

Edited January 14, 2012 by MKsnowangel

[A.J]

Chilly and nice looking frost as I opened the curtains this morning. Frustrated with the model runs this morning though, a couple of runs ago a very cold blast looked likely now returned to the phrase 'Cold Zonality' which means we'l receive precisely jack all in marginal conditions, as per every episode of marginal cold weather, as per december. DIRE.

Care to elaborate on that Radders?....IMHO, and quite frankly, you're talking complete nonsense, have you not been reading any of the imformative posts in the MOD from the likes of Nick Sussex, BFTP, WM, Damianslaw, JH, Steve Murr, Paul, GP etc etc etc?

[PolarWarsaw]

I have indeed, there has been a certain backtrack in the ECM uppers and the cold spell doesnt look particularly long, or particularly strong with the high looking weaker in comparison to previous runs. I just dont forsee Snow down here and Cold zonality looks more likely. Hope not though, perhaps its just my un-trained eye, if you could give me some help or point me in the correct direction, id be greatful.

Edited January 14, 2012 by Radders

[Bolton67]

Nick Sussex, BFTP, WM, Damianslaw, JH, Steve Murr, Paul, GP etc etc etc?

Why did You miss out Ian ''GFS'' Brown, from that list , Aj.

Edited January 14, 2012 by lancs_northants

[A.J]

I have indeed, there has been a certain backtrack in the ECM uppers and the cold spell doesnt look particularly long, or particularly strong with the high looking weaker in comparison to previous runs. I just dont forsee Snow down here and Cold zonality looks more likely. Hope not though, perhaps its just my un-trained eye, if you could give me some help or point me in the correct direction, id be greatful.

The right direction to go in Radders is to follow the posts of the members I mentioned, add chinomaniac & Phil Warks & Isolated Frost & Lorenzo to that list...Yes, a couple are known coldies but generally speaking they're fairly close to the mark with their analysis & interpretation of the model output....but I'd still like to know (in a friendly manner) why you feel the outputs are 'dire' from the outputs across the board and why you say there will be no snow etc etc....You're looking at the models in a 'glass in half empty' manner and TBH your earlier post was very misleading, especially for members in here with a limited knowledge of the models and are trying to learn

Why did You miss out Ian ''GFS'' Brown, from that list , Aj.

I'll reply via pm later....the public forum is not really the place to discuss opinions on other members

Edited January 14, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[PolarWarsaw]

I was probably a bit strong in my analysis, mainly down to the fact that I actually stayed up last night right the way through until the 0z's this morning and then had 4 hours sleep, meaning im a bit tired and grotty and probably took a pint half full kind of outlook to things through tiredness, that and the fact this morning ECM made the high look a bit flabbier. When some members on the Model Output then start mentioning backtracks and a less strength high pressure, compiled with tiredness and what not thats where the post came from.

Perhaps doing 24 hour days isnt such a good idea. Lol.

[andy_leics22]

Care to elaborate on that Radders?....IMHO, and quite frankly, you're talking complete nonsense, have you not been reading any of the imformative posts in the MOD from the likes of Nick Sussex, BFTP, WM, Damianslaw, JH, Steve Murr, Paul, GP etc etc etc?

You missed my name out, it's ok, I forgive you, simple mistake :w00t:

All I ask for is a big potent Easterly before March that delivers a 7 days+ of periods of snow and very cold temperatures. Northerlys that last 2 days don't do it for me i'm afraid, normally because they never deliver snow for my neck of the woods.

[A.J]

You missed my name out, it's ok, I forgive you, simple mistake :w00t:

All I ask for is a big potent Easterly before March that delivers a 7 days+ of periods of snow and very cold temperatures. Northerlys that last 2 days don't do it for me i'm afraid, normally because they never deliver snow for my neck of the woods.

Andy, you are a complete berk, but a funny berk! :smilz38:

TBH i've been scanning the model threads today, and the posts in them are as inconsistent and as polarized as the model outputs themselves...One heck of a rollercoaster, and when it comes to the crunch, the weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of the terabytes of of data inputted into synoptic modelling software!

[andy_leics22]

Andy, you are a complete berk, but a funny berk! :smilz38:

TBH i've been scanning the model threads today, and the posts in them are as inconsistent and as polarized as the model outputs themselves...One heck of a rollercoaster, and when it comes to the crunch, the weather will do what the weather will do, regardless of the terabytes of of data inputted into synoptic modelling software!

Haha, thanks dude, I know this is off-topic but seeing as the thread is about as busy as Asda at 3am... Have you got the hang of F1 2011 yet? I haven't played it for a while but I used to do 100% races and use steering wheel and pedals

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Care to elaborate on that Radders?....IMHO, and quite frankly, you're talking complete nonsense, have you not been reading any of the imformative posts in the MOD from the likes of Nick Sussex, BFTP, WM, Damianslaw, JH, Steve Murr, Paul, GP etc etc etc?

I still can't work out Nick sussex? apparently he lives in france?? not Sussex! cant understand why he is so interested in our weather, when not living here, I certainly wouldnt be, no disrespect of course but if I didnt live in the UK, I wouldnt give a damn about mild cold etc here, only the country I live in

Edited January 14, 2012 by snow? norfolk n chance

[Bolton67]

I still can't work out Nick sussex? apparently he lives in france?? not Sussex! cant understand why he is so interested in our weather, when not living here, I certainly wouldnt be, no disrespect of course but if I didnt live in the UK, I wouldnt give a damn about mild cold etc here, only the country I live in

Maybe, just maybe ..he is just a sentimental Brit ...

I for one could not give a damn where he lives...he is one very respected poster.

[Bolton67]

well, the ECM 12z is sticking to it's guns....

@ T168 is that a North easterly..

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

[A.J]

Haha, thanks dude, I know this is off-topic but seeing as the thread is about as busy as Asda at 3am... Have you got the hang of F1 2011 yet? I haven't played it for a while but I used to do 100% races and use steering wheel and pedals

are you on xbox live Andy?...if so pm me your gamer tag....and yes I still suck at F1 2011 as indeed on most games these days, old age is creeping in I fear!

well, the ECM 12z is sticking to it's guns....

@ T168 is that a North easterly..

http://www.meteociel...map=0&archive=0

indeed Mark, the mexican standoff continues!.....interested in where the ECMWF goes from T168 to T240, and especially interested where this run lies in the ensemble suite

[PolarWarsaw]

Not sure what to make of toinghts ECM at all. Im not sure about everyone else but a 'good run' equates to a snowy one. I'l be very dissapointed if we end up chilly but with no snow, id almost rather see wind and rain storms then. Hay ho, more runs required.

[andy_leics22]

are you on xbox live Andy?...if so pm me your gamer tag....and yes I still suck at F1 2011 as indeed on most games these days, old age is creeping in I fear!

indeed Mark, the mexican standoff continues!.....interested in where the ECMWF goes from T168 to T240, and especially interested where this run lies in the ensemble suite

Haha I have PSN mate, not knocking the Xbox but I do like my free online gaming

The Nick Sussex question... He used to live in Sussex, when I first joined the forum in 2004 he was still in Sussex then but moved to France in 2005-2006 I think.

[Snowy Easterly]

Im not shocked by the ECM backtrack tbh, it was poor at times last winter too, that model gets to much credit in my eyes.

[Bolton67]

Ohhh, Mr large teapot is getting all upset now..calling members ''South East mafia'' All because his beloved GFS is lacking respect...

Im not shocked by the ECM backtrack tbh, it was poor at times last winter too, that model gets to much credit in my eyes.

What backtrack?

Edited January 14, 2012 by lancs_northants

[Snowy Easterly]

Ohhh, Mr large teapot is getting all upset now..calling members ''South East mafia'' All because his beloved GFS is lacking respect...

What backtrack?

Ok it might not of backtracked to the GFS but it certainly has downgraded the depth of cold from a couple of days ago, if anyone is happy with the ECM then they have low standards of winter weather.

Last Feb the ECM predicted raging easterlies a couple of times, that never happened this model is not as good as some make out.

[Bolton67]

The downgrade of cold means nowt.... Get the cold here and anything will happen.

I remember about 2 years ago it was cold and everyone was complaining about no snow...withing 24 hours a channel low had formed and gave the south of England 30cm of snow.. the next day a trough came down from scandi and gave the North East and Yorkshire a pasting.

Have patience, get the cold established, and anything can happen.

[tinybill]

i dar not even post in the model thred tonight with all the toys bring thrown out of people prams all i say looking deep in to F1 it seems there a mark wateing down of the snow/cold it seems to me if the mild weather won again if we are lucky we might get one day