London And The South East Regional Discussion Thread - Part 4

[Suburban Streamer]

met office have released a video about this weekend

EDIT: sorry just seen its already been posted

Edited February 2, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[snowbob]

Is there any chance that little feature for fri night in the south east corner could move further west

[andy_leics22]

Well at the moment most TV forecasts and also the latest MET Office video at the top of this page go for the front stalling over SE.

My point is he still thinks it will turn to rain for us.

Which means you get rain too

It doesn't, the front may have cleared the Midlands by the time it stalls in the South East.. If it stalls in the South East.

Nobody really knows yet where it will stall, we'll only really know on the day.

[FetchCB]

met office have tweeted in response to a question for NW London with 5-10 cm overnight Saturday and Sunday Morning

[A.J]

Just thought I'd re-post this from the midlands thread earlier this morning as I think it has some relevance for the SE region, and illustrates somewhat the absolute nightmare forecasting this weekend will be

It's funny how just the slightest changes in output and 'on the day' weather could make such a difference come saturday into sunday......There is a pool of thought that the model output is underestimating the strength of the block and associated cold pool (I'm in the camp) whilst others believe the model output is overestimating the strength of the block, leaving a fine line in between....

.It's feasible that the atlantic frontal system could bulldoze straight through the HP ridge before stalling in the North Sea giving fleeting snow into an all rain event for all of us...

It's also feasible that the block repells the attack and as the frontal systems attempt to erode the ridge of High Pressure in-situ, they get eroded and thrown back west, so far west that the midland region stays mostly dry, any PPN stays out over Ireland & West Wales......

It's also feasible that the Atlantic system will make some inroads into the HP ridge giving a snow or snow to rain event for all of us (which is favourite based on current model output)...

What I'm trying to point out is that this forthcoming passage of weather is an absolute forecasters nightmare, no professional meteorologist can be 100% certain what's going to happen, so with that in mind, by all means, follow the model outputs (especially the hi-res outputs) for a rough guidance, but it's going to come down to nowcasting and radar watching on the day as the slightest variance in frontal orientation, PPN intensity etc etc could make one hell of a difference!

[Anthonyb]

It doesn't, the front may have cleared the Midlands by the time it stalls in the South East.. If it stalls in the South East.

Nobody really knows yet where it will stall, we'll only really know on the day.

Well the deputy Chief Forcaster at the MET on the video seems to think it will stall over the SE.. I'll go with that for now :-)

[Brightlight]

A friend of mine has just called me,she works for Brighton and hove council,they have been put on high alert for significant snow fall on saturday/sunday

OOOO better let them know my grit bin is full of rubbish not grit!! lol

[Neilsouth]

^ So why don't alot of the forecasters actually say that then on the bbc?, it's why they get such slack they come across as gods with their tons of experience but get it so wrong time and time again. We have BAD weather maps, BAD graphics, quick and vague forecasts, we've lost all the explanations and pressure maps from the late 90's. Sure we have here but always feels like the forecasts on tv are done in a cost cutting method.

[Suburban Streamer]

met office have tweeted in response to a question for NW London with 5-10 cm overnight Saturday and Sunday Morning

WOOH HOO!!!! thats me

[danm]

It doesn't, the front may have cleared the Midlands by the time it stalls in the South East.. If it stalls in the South East.

Nobody really knows yet where it will stall, we'll only really know on the day.

I think his point is that if it turns to rain in the SE on Sunday, then it will certainly also have turned to rain in the Midlands by then.

But as for where this front stalls (if it stalls at all) is very much in doubt. Will most likely be a nowcasting event.

[andy_leics22]

Well the deputy Chief Forcaster at the MET on the video seems to think it will stall over the SE.. I'll go with that for now :-)

It probably will do to be fair, small changes between now and Saturday can make a huge difference though, even if the front got shifted another 50-100 miles further West.. Would make a lot of difference to a lot of people, the majority of models at this moment in time though are saying it will stall in the South East though so that's the form horse right now.

Edited February 2, 2012 by andy_leics22

[Marie]

Right here in sunny Brighton the temp is 1.3 ,dewpoint is -6.3 ,Humidity is 57%

[GoonerGregg77]

Hmmmm, he is NOT sitting on any fence this time!

Its a wait n see jobby this one

Well that will give Mr. Cockcroft enough time for his backside to recover then lol

[Anthonyb]

It probably will do to be fair, small changes between now and Saturday can make a huge difference though, even if the front got shifted another 50-100 miles further West.. Would make a lot of difference to a lot of people, the majority of models at this moment in time though are saying it will stall in the South East though so that's the form horse right now.

If it does stall over us.. Where do u think the snow line will be before it turns to rain out west! I'm thinking Oxford?

[Paul Sherman]

1430z

Temp 0.9c

Dp -8.1c

Wind 11 mph from the ENE

Humidity 51%

[southbank]

Up here in the Midlands we're so looking forward to sunday on the forum, when we're plastered with meters of snow and the SE is bone dry as the block repels the atlantic attack!

Yes, to spice things up, it's time for a bit of inter-regional rivalry...lol

sadly i think you on the money with that forecast ........(sadly)

[Paul Sherman]

Lol

Check out the 14z Obs for London Heathrow

2c

-12c Dp

[tinybill]

has the met office site crashed at the moment

[jgbgt]

etchingham:

temp 0.4

humidity 39%!!!

dew point -12

wind speed 10.1mph

wind chill -4C

that humidity cant be right can it????

so low, hence i think my scratchy throat,that or all the marlboro light from stress and model watching

jon

[Coast]

If it does stall over us.. Where do u think the snow line will be before it turns to rain out west! I'm thinking Oxford?

I'm going for somewhere along that line where the mauve meets the blue (generally split at the IOW upwards) +/- 20 miles either side

[Weathizard]

has the met office site crashed at the moment

Not sure if its crashed but I dunno if its because they are updating the warnings or whatever. Those big circles chasing little ones in the loading thing are very irritating

[Suburban Streamer]

can anyone tell me how accurate this weather station is please (if anyone has a weather station in the area)

its located in hampstead (NW3) its proved totally useless for wind gusts but not sure how it fairs on temps, dews etc.

currently showing

temp 0.6c

dp -10.9

wind 7.6mph ne

humidity 42%

[PLANET THANET]

here in thanet the temp is 0.4c, the humidity is 57% and the dewpoint is -7.1

[alex131297]

what they playing at warnings are gone on metoffice :L

[Paul Sherman]

can anyone tell me how accurate this weather station is please (if anyone has a weather station in the area)

its located in hampstead (NW3) its proved totally useless for wind gusts but not sure how it fairs on temps, dews etc.

currently showing

temp 0.6c

dp -10.9

wind 7.6mph ne

humidity 42%

Looks pretty acurate to me