Winter 2021-22 Chat, Moans and ramps thread

[weathercold]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

To a certain extent, we got a full day snow-covered late Nov and again on fri.

Slim picking fir sure but the PM set up can deliver brief events.

On the odd occasion mid Atlantic highs can be slightly longer lasting , but broadly speaking the cold uppers are washed away within 48 hours...

Granted the further north you are for sure - here near London not seen anything as of yet and neither has most of the south.

In order to bring everyone in the game so to speak we need more than a 1-2 day northerly toppler.

Patience looks like being key right now, will our luck turn later in Jan/Feb?

[SqueakheartLW]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Dr Simon Lee tweeted

December 2021 absolutely obliterated the ERA5 record for number of days assigned to the "Arctic Low" (also known as "Pacific Ridge") North American weather regime: 29 days. The previous record holder was 24 days in 1984. 29 days is the average for all of DJFM!

This is computed by minimum Euclidean distance assignment of the 4 clusters of the k-means solution of the leading 12 EOFs of daily 00Z linearly-detrended ERA5 1.5° DJFM Z500 anomalies in 20-80°N 180-30°W over Jan 1979-Dec 2021

 

I have to admit I couldn’t have put it better myself.

Think someone needs to nuke that Pacific ridge, that UK winter killer

[markyo]

Getting this strong feeling another Winter is not about to happen again. Sad times.

[shunthebartlett92]

14 minutes ago, markyo said:

Getting this strong feeling another Winter is not about to happen again. Sad times.

I mean, although it is easy to feel resigned given that teleconnections have been working in our favour; solar activity, MJO and QBO phases looking favourable, i wouldnt be as defeatist. Last winter delivered at least a little snow for most of us at some stage (We were lucky in the midlands) and im still fairly confident one of the next few winters will have a decent cold spell at some stage (hardly sticking my neck out here) but i think this winter serves a stark reminder that a fired up jet stream and positive NAO setup will always be the default for the UK, with west or southwesterlies prevailing. This is mainly due to the power of the coriolis force, in the NH pressure systems rarely move from east to west, with the atlantic far too powerful compared to anything else in UK weather setups. When i see a northerly modelled for the UK i always feel uneasy, because i know well that the mid atlantic high is never far away from spoiling the party and blowing troughs to our east out the picture very quickly. A good east or northeasterly is the most exciting it gets really for most, and even then its incredibly difficult to get a UK wide setup where everyone is happy. 

In summary though, although i feel fairly resigned about this winter too, a cold spell can crop up out of nowhere and i still feel amidst a warming planet, we'll get our chance before long again.

[Staffmoorlands]

My friends are reporting sleet and snow in Rome. They have more snow than the most of southern Britain these days. Something they didn’t expect when they moved there to teach English

[Skullzrulerz]

4 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

This shows how dull December was:

(even duller for me, I missed the 4 days of decent sun in Exeter early in the month, and a few days of decent sun in Lancaster just after I came down to Exeter.. Exeter Airport had 3.8 hours of sun after 10th!!)

Wow... would hate to think those people who use solar panels for their energy. 

[Ross90]

1 day of lying snow so far up here and only a handful of frosts, it has been a poor winter everywhere so far.

[shunthebartlett92]

1 hour ago, Staffmoorlands said:

My friends are reporting sleet and snow in Rome. They have more snow than the most of southern Britain these days. Something they didn’t expect when they moved there to teach English

i think most of continental europe is in a better position to see these extremes anyway. The landmass effect of colder air aids to cool a larger surface area at least giving southern europe a chance. Too much water modifies the temperatures we can see in this country. It is depressing when southern europe sees snow, or the far southwest of BC has had 3 weeks of snow and bitter temperatures, when its the mildest part of the country.

[January Snowstorm]

We are wandering in limbo land for at least the last 5 weeks. Quickly now becoming a case of can we salvage 1 cold spell in February. Even the most optimistic can't see a way out of this current stalemate until last week of Jan 

Give me stormy if we can't get cold but this anticylonic gloom is just getting everyone down imo

[Weather Enthusiast91]

The last few days haven't been too bad over here. A mixture of sunshine and clouds, a few frosts here and there and a decent hail shower with a few winds yesterday evening.

It does look like anticyclonic gloom nothingness will be with us again next week though. Only consolation is that at least temps will be around average.

Edited January 9, 2022 by Weather Enthusiast91

[The4Seasons]

3 hours ago, Ross90 said:

1 day of lying snow so far up here and only a handful of frosts, it has been a poor winter everywhere so far.

Alot of places are yet to see a snowflake or even a frost especially here in the south west. It has been a terrible winter so far. I can't even call this a winter tbh as it doesn't qualify to the standards to be called a winter. I can't wait until mid spring and summer arrives to get away from all this boring mild gloom fest. 

[Valleyboy]

20 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lots of negativity here which I guess looking at the charts is east to see why , however the action starts as the high moving in over the U.K. starts to move West - this is between day 7-9 and still pretty much in FI!!  
 

If we had a cold spell forecast at day 7-9 all those negative types will say it will fail and won’t happen, well maybe this lack of ridging will be wrong too and we’ll end up with a monster ridge and brutal northerly.
 

Over to the ECM to put some cheers back into this forum ️

The thing is, northerlies are never brutal.  It’s a sign of desperation when people wish for northerlies, as they only look good on paper, they never deliver to the bulk of the country.

[NewEra21]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

One day, one time, this winter or not, a nationwide heavy snow event will hit the UK.

One day Kasim, one day.

I know there's still time for a proper cold spell this winter yet, but things have been so frustrating so far this winter. Here's hoping late January into February things actually fall for us. A proper weeks long cold spell and we'd all be happy!

[The Northern Ramper]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

One day, one time, this winter or not, a nationwide heavy snow event will hit the UK.

Our winters tend to start in March and end in April these days.

[Eagle Eye]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

One day, one time, this winter or not, a nationwide heavy snow event will hit the UK.

You can go back to the 80s 
I do think it'll happen sometime in the next 20 years like 2010 (or at least I hope)

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:

You can go back to the 80s 
I do think it'll happen sometime in the next 20 years like 2010 (or at least I hope)

There will very likely be a couple of coldish winters like 2017/18 and 2020/21 in the next 5 years.

[The Northern Ramper]

23 minutes ago, Ramp said:

Our winters tend to start in March and end in April these days.

Hilarious that this got moved.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Personally looking forward to spring now. Had enough of this dull and damp crapfest.

The worst bit being that the +NAO is forecast to strengthen further on most longer range models. 

I just knew as soon as that Christmas cold spell failed to materialise that we were in deep doo doo this winter.

Edited January 9, 2022 by CreweCold

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yep seen enough see yeas end of January for the February chase

its dire output have to be honest

[Lukesluckybunch]

i tell you what guys day 10 looks alright!haha

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

its dire output have to be honest

Yea it's shocking to say the least and that EC Day 10 chart that everybody is getting giddy about is destined to fail azores high the spoiler again.

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Yea it's shocking to say the least and that EC Day 10 chart that everybody is getting giddy about is destined to fail azores high the spoiler again.

totally agree..and the fact its day 10 is just laughable

[alexisj9]

2 hours ago, Staffmoorlands said:

Reviewing the 12z UKMO, Operational GFS, ICON & GEM and in my view we are still at least 10 days away from any cold spell for the south. Maybe some wintry spells for the north at best. Grim times but the ECM later may offer some hope?

Mean while I have the fourth frost since Tuesday here right in the SE corner. I'll take that, if it's all that on offer for us at the minute. The snow will come.

[swfc]

33 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The models have no idea beyond day 6, so not sure why people are still writing Jan off!! 
 

So FI is the 15th ish, deep FI around 20th. That leaves 11 days where no one, not even the METO have a clue!! 

Thing is Ali you keep saying 10 day charts have potential. They actually don't mate

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

All this cold that was shown is all in fi anyway. Its all subject to change and in my opinion something very cold is around the corner. Strike me down but I'm positive of a cold second half to January. Watch the northerly be back on the 18z. I won't throw in the towel on this chase until at least 96/72hrs.