Model discussion: Hunt for cold - into February

[mb018538]

Day 1 - High pressure




Day 5/6/7/8/9/10/11/12....more high pressure:



NW areas seeing some rain, but for the south and east, the winter drought goes on...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

GFS 12z is nearly a stonker!!

[mb018538]

For those sick of the mildness, the GFS does at least build a cold high out in FI, with a few snow showers thrown in for good measure:

[knocker]

24 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is nearly a stonker!!

There is nothing nearly about it!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is nothing nearly about it!

True for parts of Yorkshire and Cuumbria.

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is nothing nearly about it!

Interestingly that looks much milder across the whole continent .

@jules216may be better placed but I believe Eastern Poland /Belarus/ Baltics have had a cold winter thanks to the UK high.

[chris55]

8 hours ago, chris55 said:

That high pressure cell moving out of east Canada around day 7 hinting at a pattern ‘disturbance’ of sorts. Been showing on ecm and gfs for a few days in different forms. Forcing lows south.
 

Something to watch.

That ridge and Atlantic low interaction once again pushing the long wave set up in a more interesting direction on the 12z…

[Daniel*]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

There is nothing nearly about it!

 

I’m not sure why you have shared day 5-10 2m anomaly when cold air advection happens after day 10! Again this is not entirely unbelievable from GFS if MJO composites turn out to be correct. It is FI.

 

 

Edited February 2, 2022 by Daniel*

[Guest]

Valentines looks promising......

 Picturing the scene, rug rolled out in front of a roaring log fire, Barry White LP playing in the background the wife sipping on some Blue Nun ,1985 vintage (only the best for my good lady)....And me with my nose pressed up against the window staring at the lamppost!

Happy Days!

[Downburst]

18 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Valentines looks promising......

 Picturing the scene, rug rolled out in front of a roaring log fire, Barry White LP playing in the background the wife sipping on some Blue Nun ,1985 vintage (only the best for my good lady)....And me with my nose pressed up against the window staring at the lamppost!

Happy Days!

I’m assuming you have a lamppost in your living room?

[damianslaw]

28 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Valentines looks promising......

 Picturing the scene, rug rolled out in front of a roaring log fire, Barry White LP playing in the background the wife sipping on some Blue Nun ,1985 vintage (only the best for my good lady)....And me with my nose pressed up against the window staring at the lamppost!

Happy Days!

Thought you were talking about Valentines Day 1985 which brought a bitter easterly and widespread snow, likewise 1979..

[Ali1977]

At 240 we have some cross model agreement of height rises in our area or slightly to our NW, nothing decent at this stage but the GFS does have a good attempt at bringing cold in beyond 240 as posted earlier. 

There’s no wording on the METO of anything cold, still, however it’s something to keep an eye on.

Edited February 2, 2022 by Ali1977

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,ECM / GFS /GEM now all playing around with high pressure in a more favourable position still in that unreliable time frame but still worth watching.meanwhile a 1 day wonder on Friday may bring some of the white stuff even down to the southeast so still something to keep us cold lovers with some interest.

[RJBingham]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

There is nothing nearly about it!

BANK!!!

[Cold Winter Night]

Well, on the 12z EPS it's a lot of High pressure again.

In the extended range, we see a continued presence of Ural heights and poitive height anomalies either over us or North/Northeast of us. Perhaps some support for a GFS-type scenario, but don't hold your breath.
Unfortunately, what's still lacking is a serious attempt to lower heights to our South. Cluster 3 tries a bit, but it's not convincing, and at the very end, day 15. So the wait goes on.

A little reminiscing:
How much different was it to follow model output exactly one year ago, when that short, but intense cold spell was approaching.

This was our ECM Day 5 chart on February 2, 2021:

GEFS produced many similar charts in FI this winter, but oh, to have it at day 5!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Ok so Feb will see another bout of strong winds (especially north), possibly effect will increase again next couple of days.  Then calm and mild, but very interesting developments starting to churn out, let’s see if the NE and E’ly flow develops for second half of Feb with coldest thrust last 3rd.  I think the pattern is going to change/is changing but it’s a gradual process.  The slug will go…..one hopes   Very impressive and noteworthy in it’s stubbornness to remain or reappear shortly after being shunted away.  

BFTP

Edited February 2, 2022 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Froze were the Days]

30 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Ok so Feb will see another bout of strong winds (especially north), possibly effect will increase again next couple of days.  Then calm and mild, but very interesting developments starting to churn out, let’s see if the NE and E’ly flow develops for second half of Feb with coldest thrust last 3rd.

Yes let's see if this winter after it's autopsy will be far from 'a damp squib' as you suggested a few weeks back! gfs had been p-poor at picking trends in January and now another 'possible' tease showing up towards FI...I'll only be interested when we get to near a week away and even then the banana skin is waiting

[stodge]

Evening all

Once again, the "Hunt for Cold" heads 3000 miles or so west and turns up this gem (GFS not GEM):

T+240, the 850s, 500s and 2m temperature 

That's an extraordinary cold plunge even by North American standards and the Jet fires up as a result of that influx of frigid air from the north-west.

 

[Bill4321]

As it is so quiet in here I thought that I would stitch together the z500's for the two famous cold spells in our part of the world. I find them quite hypnotic in the way that the Atlantic gets batted away for weeks on end.

First off 1947 - Cold throughout and bitter from 21st Jan through to 10th March. This one takes us from the 19th Jan to the 12th March..

 

Winter of 1946–47 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

Next of course 1962/3. This takes one takes us from Christmas day 1962 right through to 6th March 1963.

 

Winter of 1962–63 in the United Kingdom - Wikipedia

EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG

 

I hope that some of you enjoy

[Battleground Snow]

We have ourselves a new chase.... Day 8-9

[Tim Bland]

Some snow around before hand as well 

[Tim Bland]

Hard to have much faith when you compare 12z & 18z at day 9 … 

[Nick F]

Such a drastic change between 12z and 18z GFS for the second half of next week, from low pressure to the west and Euro high on the 12z to high pressure to the west and Euro trough on the 18z. Hard to have faith is the sudden change to a much better outlook for cold and snow lovers desperate to salvage something out of this abysmal excuse called winter. 

Quite unusual, but an area of high pressure is kicked out of eastern Canada next week and builds into a block across the mid-N Atlantic the following weekend. Trop polar vortex dropping south from Canada into central / eastern USA seems to be the catalyst for major amplification and high building downstream over the N Atlantic. Interesting - but not convinced yet, given the sudden flip...

[damianslaw]

Yes GFS 18z doing one of its typical acts something very different to its other runs.. throwing in a cold ridge out if nowhere. I'll be surprised if the 0z shows similar tomorrow.. probably a one off.

We need to keep an eye on upstream events in USA.. signal for significant deep longwave trough over NE USA.. this will inject fire into the jet and we may see a shake up of sorts as a result.. perhaps more of a classic deep trough/ridge development rather than the current flat northerly positioned jet.. this could see more potent polar air on the scene should we position ourselves on northern side.

[CoxR]

That's a pretty sizeable shift in the GEFS mean from the 12z to the 18z...