Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[BartyHater]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And…makes it…

To be fair, this evolution is the ‘other’ one from the clusters this morning, apart from the Atlantic one which an awful lot of people are just assuming will be correct.

I don't think anyone has assumed the Atlantic/milder weather is coming back to stay from early next week, but the reality is it now looks odds-on to make a return in some form or other....exactly what form that takes and precisely how long it lasts however does remain very much open to question. 

[AdrianHull]

Far from over looking at the GFS...

If we can get that Scandinavian high in and consistently modelled then it's game on.

Massive ECM in the next hour and a half. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by AdrianHull

[Bats32]

GFS sniffing a pattern out again?

[That ECM]

Just now, Bats32 said:

GFS sniffing a pattern out again?

 

Just now, Bats32 said:

GFS sniffing a pattern out again?

Sniffing something.

[TSNWK]

bloomin heck - will make this weekend barmy in comparision - fair play to @Lukesluckybunch who again called it first as was done on Sunday nights ECM240... which we must remember disapeared like a fart in the wind Monday morning (ECM fault

enjoy the below:

[TauntonRoss]

Still fancy the milder air to win but pick a corner....

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, BartyHater said:

I don't think anyone has assumed the Atlantic/milder weather is coming back to stay from early next week, but the reality is it now looks odds-on to make a return in some form or other....exactly what form that takes and precisely how long it lasts however does remain very much open to question. 

Yes. 

Very good ensemble support across the board for a return to less cold conditions through the first week of December but the GFS 12z perhaps reminding us that there is still a route to a colder solution on the table, if the dets are flopping about this much then the ensembles likely will be too, we have seen entire ensemble suites flip from one solution to another before. 

Having said that; as things stand, a return to milder/Atlantic weather is the most likely outcome given the evidence at hand, but that doesn't necessarily mean that wont change. Lots to be resolved.

[BartyHater]

Just now, TSNWK said:

bloomin heck - will make this weekend barmy in comparision - fair play to @Lukesluckybunch who again called it first as was done on Sunday nights ECM240... which we must remember disapeared like a fart in the wind Monday morning (ECM fault

enjoy the below:

Yes that Scandi high on the 240ECM looked isolated at the time and so it proved on subsequent runs.....this 12 GFS run might be the same kind of thing, or it might be the start of a very welcome next chase trend. Lets see what ECM has to say....probably a blowtorch SW'erly

[Cold Winter Night]

UKMO 168h.

Highs to the North not inclined to disappear yet.
Atlantic Lows don't get past the British isles as they meet cold Europe, and no purple Greenland.

Potentially milder than the upcoming weekend? Yes.
But no Atlantic onslaught like the last few months, and lots of perspective later on.

[LetItSnow!]

8 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Can we please bank this GFS 12z   It really does love teasing us in FI as always.

Wasn’t it just yesterday the ECM was toying with a similar solution? Posters were convinced the flow would revert into a southwesterly and turn milder. I don’t feel confident enough to say I think a situation like this will prevail, but it’s an option that should not be discounted and, unscientifically, *feels* right to me. More runs needed. Anyone assuming that it will turn definitely turn into a mild pattern should not be too presumptuous. 

[WorldExplore]

5 minutes ago, Bats32 said:

GFS sniffing a pattern out again?

Likely to be a huge outlier but Will be great ensemble viewing later to see if any of the runs follow the op route.

[Anthony Burden]

Evening all,well well well GFS bringing back northern blocking along with high pressure building from the south from144hrs keeping the low pressure systems stuck in the Atlantic going no where and finally finishing in fantasy island territory with a Scandinavian high bringing the real cold back again.Been sometime since I have seen so much chopping and changing from ECM along with GFS and so much uncertainty in that 168hrs onwards,so intriguing great watching what will be the follow on from this cold spell,at present any body’s guess.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

 

Sniffing something.

Well on the 06z it has surge of heights from southwest America driving north through Canada where as on the 12z it lowers heights substantially with a stronger vortex more compact which in turn gives us a stronger impact to the Western Atlantic so in theory this fits in better with the idea of stronger jet etc but we know wedges makes sledges but that's more of a beast out there but not impossible. 

[Bats32]

Just now, WorldExplore said:

Likely to be a huge outlier but Will be great ensemble viewing later to see if any of the runs follow the op route.

ECM was similar on Sunday night IIRC and the GFS 6z wasn't a million miles away. 

[Shaunado]

Fascinating output. I think the cold pooling to our NE could be stubborn to shift, but where will the cold E vs mild W battleground lie? Could go either way over our shores. 

Edited November 28, 2023 by Shaunado

[Mcconnor8]

Just now, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Well on the 06z it has surge of heights from southwest America driving north through Canada where as on the 12z it lowers heights substantially with a stronger vortex more compact which in turn gives us a stronger impact to the Western Atlantic so in theory this fits in better with the idea of stronger jet etc but we know wedges makes sledges but that's more of a beast out there but not impossible. 

Later on it wants a large battleground over the UK and the high retrogressing to Greenland as well so a northerly coming after potentially as well 

[LetItSnow!]

7 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

UKMO 168h.

Highs to the North not inclined to disappear yet.
Atlantic Lows don't get past the British isles as they meet cold Europe, and no purple Greenland.

Potentially milder than the upcoming weekend? Yes.
But no Atlantic onslaught like the last few months, and lots of perspective later on.

A worthy point to make. Even if a milder situation pans out like this, it’s more a waning of the cold than a mild spell. A southerly tracking jet like that will bring a lot of pretty cold rain, so coldies and mildies don’t really benefit. Sunshine lovers may well be better off though, as southwesterly winds will bring endless cloud, whereas a more PM airmass will invite more chances of brighter conditions between rain.

Edited November 28, 2023 by LetItSnow!

[Catacol]

GFS 12z 240h

I tell you now - if the pattern resurrects a Scandy High with the strength to repel the Atlantic as this run is doing, and embed a cold easterly while we are in the midst of lagged impacts of a crashed AAM and a IO MJO passage, then I will call a 62/63 return right now. I simply cannot see it, no matter how much cold may be embedded over Scandy or how helpful other drivers such as atlantic SSTs or a southerly tracking jet might be. If blocking can build in these circumstances then we better all prepare to build igloos for the rest of the season.

And no worries by the way. I'd be delighted. Perhaps hubris is inbound for the seasonal models, the MetO and all enthusiastic amateurs! Perhaps we are living on the cusp of a historic season, one that will be studied and written about in books for decades. We do live history every day, after all.

This by Mon 11th?

Pfft. GFS has been on the puff.

[TSNWK]

good old fashioned 1980's pipe burster

 

[Bats32]

I believe in the GFS, I believe in Father Christmas!

[Rob 79812010]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

GFS 12z 240h

I tell you now - if the pattern resurrects a Scandy High with the strength to repel the Atlantic as this run is doing, and embed a cold easterly while we are in the midst of lagged impacts of a crashed AAM and a IO MJO passage, then I will call a 62/63 return right now. I simply cannot see it, no matter how much cold may be embedded over Scandy or how helpful other drivers such as atlantic SSTs or a southerly tracking jet might be. If blocking can build in these circumstances then we better all prepare to build igloos for the rest of the season.

And no worries by the way. I'd be delighted. Perhaps hubris is inbound for the seasonal models, the MetO and all enthusiastic amateurs! Perhaps we are living on the cusp of a historic season, one that will be studied and written about in books for decades. We do live history every day, after all.

This by Mon 11th?

Pfft. GFS has been on the puff.

Can you imagine if this was the year! We had Dec 10 so not out of the question!!

[LRD]

If it's cold you're after, you couldn't draw this chart much better

Pity it's a computer-generated phantom

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, AdrianHull said:

Far from over looking at the GFS...

If we can get that Scandinavian high in and consistently modelled then it's game on.

Massive ECM in the next hour and a half. 

The ec op isn’t particularly important re days 7/10 ref this 12z gfs theme (unless it shows the same).  There was reasonable ens support for the ridge in the eps suite and we should be looking to see if that’s grown at all when the clusters appear around 8pm 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

GFS 12z 240h

I tell you now - if the pattern resurrects a Scandy High with the strength to repel the Atlantic as this run is doing, and embed a cold easterly while we are in the midst of lagged impacts of a crashed AAM and a IO MJO passage, then I will call a 62/63 return right now. I simply cannot see it, no matter how much cold may be embedded over Scandy or how helpful other drivers such as atlantic SSTs or a southerly tracking jet might be. If blocking can build in these circumstances then we better all prepare to build igloos for the rest of the season.

And no worries by the way. I'd be delighted. Perhaps hubris is inbound for the seasonal models, the MetO and all enthusiastic amateurs! Perhaps we are living on the cusp of a historic season, one that will be studied and written about in books for decades. We do live history every day, after all.

This by Mon 11th?

Pfft. GFS has been on the puff.

Hahaha! 

Ironically I tweeted that the writing was on the wall based on the early part of that GFS run, can't say I expected it to produce countrywide deep snowfall like that. It's an unbelievable run!

I'd say it's incredibly unlikely but we're currently seeing a Greenland high despite unfavourable background forcing so.. I'm much more weary to do that after the last fail. I do agree though, I can't see it. I fully expect the 12z GFS to be one of the biggest outliers we've seen so far this season.

(Watch it be one of the milder members or something)

[LRD]

3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Hahaha! 

Ironically I tweeted that the writing was on the wall based on the early part of that GFS run, can't say I expected it to produce countrywide deep snowfall like that. It's an unbelievable run!

I'd say it's incredibly unlikely but we're currently seeing a Greenland high despite unfavourable background forcing so.. I'm much more weary to do that after the last fail. I do agree though, I can't see it. I fully expect the 12z GFS to be one of the biggest outliers we've seen so far this season.

(Watch it be one of the milder members or something)

Could be a case of right pattern, wrong timing. If the teleconnections are pointing to possibilities of high latitude blocks over Europe in the last 3rd of December it might just be over-reacting to that and bringing things forward a bit early (if it happens at all, of course)