Model Output Discussion - Into Winter

[Snowman.]

The upcoming pattern looking very reminicesnt on Jan 2013 when UKMO took all the models to the wire. With all these slow sliding lows meanandering accross the Atlantic bumping into wedges is going to make this almost impossible to forecast. 

UKMO, EC and GFS for 144.

   

[Ali1977]

Great at 240

and heading the right way, hopefully it comes earlier but I’ll take it at day 10 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM absolutely fine and on time at T240:

Agreed, ECM imo is a cold bomb about to go off

 

BFTP

[MJB]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Or could simply just reinforce the Iberian heights. I see nothing much in the outputs so far showing any proper snowy cold.

Doesn't look that way to me, looks like cold spreading down from the North with the aid of a block to the NW

[Ice Day]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM absolutely fine and on time at T240:

Absolutely this ^

Day 10 ot not Day 10, this is an absolute peach of a chart!

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed, ECM imo is a cold bomb about to go off

 

BFTP

Almost if we can shift the pattern south a little it's too far north for any major winter at that stage still promising going forward.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[Lukesluckybunch]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Agreed, ECM imo is a cold bomb about to go off

 

BFTP

Just hope there is sufficient pressure into Greenland..and the lobe drops down vertically..we can't always just be happy with day 10 charts 

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Or could simply just reinforce the Iberian heights. I see nothing much in the outputs so far showing any proper snowy cold.

Back to model viewing school then. It’s a superb chart. 

[johncam]

23 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

10 put of 10?for trying john

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, johncam said:

 

I am sorry John but you just cannot post a mean chart 16 days away and expect that that will be the outcome when there is so much happening just 6-7 days away

[tight isobar]

Models now on the cusp of cross boundary deciphering .. there were bound to be wobbles-?miss - matching, As we have oceanic/ atmospheric dismay!.. the n- hemispherical syncs are now stabilized in at least “ more or less “… so the drop folds should now shortly become resolute in forward compare/ solidity’s…- I’ll drop out now, as there is as important matters at hand @ Arsenal- west ham… ciao fa now

Edited December 28, 2023 by tight isobar

[Duane S.]

6 minutes ago, johncam said:

 

Seriously, you are posting a mean chart from D16 as some sort of justification? Give it a rest.

Anyway, I did muse earlier that we may have bottomed out on the rollercoaster To that, I think we should all be very content with the 12zs

[seabreeze86]

Get this or something akin to this at day 6 and we in business 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

Seriously, you are posting a mean chart from D16 as some sort of justification? Give it a rest.

Anyway, I did muse earlier that we may have bottomed out on the rollercoaster To that, I think we should all be very content with the 12zs

Indeed.  Watch for the switch via suites rapid =cold solidity’s/ solutions.. from the nxt roller suites @00z.. But with a forte of cross model alliance…

Edited December 28, 2023 by tight isobar

[Lukesluckybunch]

1 minute ago, seabreeze86 said:

Get this or something akin to this at day 6 and we in business 

That looks like a cut off high would form..around greenland..let's real these charts in now

[Methuselah]

Is there a difference between a 'slow-burner' and a no-burner? 

[CoventryWeather]

16 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

The upcoming pattern looking very reminicesnt on Jan 2013 when UKMO took all the models to the wire. With all these slow sliding lows meanandering accross the Atlantic bumping into wedges is going to make this almost impossible to forecast. 

UKMO, EC and GFS for 144.

   

Quick question, does modelling tend to increase the strength of wedges closer to the timeframe? Do wonder if models perhaps a tad too progressive on how much Atlantic we get. 

Wouldn't be surprised to see an Easterly ensemble member in the coming days.. doesn't take much change on the UKMO to make that happen. 

[KTtom]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I am sorry John but you just cannot post a mean chart 16 days away and expect that that will be the outcome when there is so much happening just 6-7 days away

To be fair to John, at least he is posting a chart which exists. The majority of posts over the last 2 pages are relating to ecm post day 10 which is pure guesswork?

[Polaris]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I am sorry John but you just cannot post a mean chart 16 days away and expect that that will be the outcome when there is so much happening just 6-7 days away

Whilst a 16 day mean chart may seem insane.
So does a D10 model run chase that we’ve been in since beginning of December. 
 

Rewind 14 days from now and we were in a Christmas blizzard. Reality was one of  the mildest Christmas’s on record. 
Away from the highlands and northern Scotland (groundbreaking that) 

I’d go with John’s chart as is a higher probability! 

[johncam]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-Si said:

I am sorry John but you just cannot post a mean chart 16 days away and expect that that will be the outcome when there is so much happening just 6-7 days away

This is the model thread or is it not? and that is the mean at the end , it heads in the wrong direction 

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Back to model viewing school then. It’s a superb chart. 

25 years model watching me, and that t+240 ECM would provide a UK high at best.

No trigger to get the proper cold into us yet.

[johncam]

13 minutes ago, Duane S. said:

Seriously, you are posting a mean chart from D16 as some sort of justification? Give it a rest.

Anyway, I did muse earlier that we may have bottomed out on the rollercoaster To that, I think we should all be very content with the 12zs

But when other posters post a mean that far out that is showing cold that is ok we can't be selective,  that's what it shows 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's move on please, report any posts you think are off topic, thanks..

[Kasim Awan]

I am not of such a polarized cold or mild view or in any particular camp.

It is really a probabilistic call. Could go either way. Very complex and lightly driven flow likely to produce some cold into mid January. We need more forcing and to push the pattern South. Models will not be correct days 6-12 with the level of complexity shown. There is no real conclusion to be drawn other than that.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Kasim Awan

[Polar Maritime]

At this timescale Kasim absolutely agree  

It is going to get colder though.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Polar Maritime