Moans, ramps and banter

[In Absence of True Seasons]

@SunnyG The wind is making it feel alot colder than the temps show, but its definitely not 'cold', even by UK winter standards which are pretty mild compared to many places' winters.

[SussexSnowman]

Sunny day down here after another battering of wind and rain. Wipes out the memory of the recent cold spell. 

Reckon my garden will spaz out if the temps keep climbing. Urghhh.

[In Absence of True Seasons]

13 hours ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

have a feeling that at some point during Feb will provide us with another cold spell before winter is out. Winter does frequently arrive back with a vengeance after false springs. 

Agree. An often dismissed part of late-Winter, IMO. Realistically, mid Feb to mid March has a greater chance of bring wintry conditions (and snow) than December does, most years. 

In my area at least, the bulk of December is often virtually indistinguishable from November weather-wise, outside of less daylight. Unusual Decembers like last year's can, and do, bring properly cold and snowy conditions, but early Jan to early-mid March is 'true winter' in my books. Even late March and early April can see more crisp, frosty mornings and nights which have a more 'wintry' feel than most December days, which in the SE at least, tend to be like 8-12c, overcast with low cloud, and drizzle.

[Rob 79812010]

Forecasts and models totally baffle me. Just been looking at a gfs model and it shows max for manchester 2 degrees for 4th, 2 degrees for 5th and 2 degrees for 6th Feb. Bbc shows 10 degrees, 10 and 9 for the same days!!!!

[Catbrainz]

It feels like mid March today with 11c and partly sunny a very Bartlett high feeling day.. If a winter is going to be mild more days like today please. 

[StretfordEnd1996]

28 minutes ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Agree. An often dismissed part of late-Winter, IMO. Realistically, mid Feb to mid March has a greater chance of bring wintry conditions (and snow) than December does, most years. 

Yes I agree with this as well to some degree. I think I mentioned in a post a few days back, growing up in the 2000s as a kid, snowfall in Feb/March just seemed the normal for me, and it often felt this was the most potent part of the Winter. 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 all arguably had the most notable cold spells post January (certainly IMBY). Of course, a large amount of these years also saw cold spells in Jan and Dec too - but Feb/March just always felt more likely IMO. (IIRC good handful of these years also contained cold snaps into April too)
 

In the more recent last 10 or so year period (particularly post 2013) this hasn't quite been as notable - but, while I often see people say things like how we 'don't get notable February cold spells anymore" - well, we don't often get notable cold spells in Dec or Jan anymore either (well certainly in the last 10 years) - it's not as though February is in isolation or anything. 

By this time of the Winter time may be ticking a little - but this doesn't mean the potency or likelihood of a cold spell in Feb/late Feb is any lower than Dec or Jan in my opinion. 

[ANYWEATHER]

@StretfordEnd1996 well we had a notable cold spell with lying snow for eight days in December 2022, with temperatures plummeting down to minus 12/13c overnight for several nights. Last week we saw minus 10c with no snow! You should have grown up in the 70,s it was quite shocking for wintry weather where I live back then …..

[StretfordEnd1996]

Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

well we had a notable cold spell with lying snow for eight days in December 2022, with temperatures plummeting down to minus 12/13c overnight for several nights. Last week we saw minus 10c with no snow! You should have grown up in the 70,s it was quite shocking for wintry weather where I live back then …..

Yes, of course there have been exceptions.  
 

[Don]

@Summer8906 the post ref to Europe being very mild.

[Metwatch]

Decent day this afternoon following the gale last night. 11C, winds calming down and largely sunny, pleasant! A fairly dry outlook going forward as well.

[MP-R]

Some interesting reflections of past years here. It should be noted that we are now in the coldest part of the winter and the period most likely to bring the most notable cold - approx. Jan 20th to Feb 10th. A bit like high summer heat.

Having said that, if cold ain’t gonna materialise, I’ll take mild and dry with sunny spells.

Coming back from a ‘cool spell’ in Rio where it’s currently only 23°C in high summer, so only a ten degree difference to a very mild spell in our winter!

[Rob 79812010]

The weather is a strange thing. Just been checking my snow photos and Manc has had decent snowfall for the last 7 years. Very strange given the milder winters we have. More NW incursions now for us. In the cold 80's snow was a rare thing for Manchester. 81 and possibly 86 the exceptions. The easterlies didn't favour us. The 6 inches from the Jan 96 easterly was a one off but memorable. Recent cold spells have been decent compared to 96 to 2008. They were the horror years for me. Its so unpredictable even with a warming planet. Its why we love it

[*Stormforce~beka*]

  @Stabilo19 Noooo 20c in winter is just wrong. As much as I love it. I'ld take it end of March lol

[cheeky_monkey]

wild swings in temps continue here..now out of the -40c cold and heading rapidly to +10 to +12c by the weekend 

[johncam]

  @cheeky_monkey thats some swing in temps  How is the winter averaging out?

[cheeky_monkey]

  @johncam December came out at a record breaking +10.1c above normal....January is currently -6.5c below normal that will change though in the next week 

[B87]

  @Summer8906

What about June 2012 and 2016? The 2 dullest Junes on record and both within the top 10 wettest on record here.

[lassie23]

@ everyone, there isn't enough moaning and ramping going on in this thread lol

[CLReeve]

It's dry out there at least but I do wonder if we'll see any more cold this winter.  The MetO backtracking on the February cold spell is certainly bad news for coldies.

[lassie23]

  @CLReeve It keeps getting pushed back

[CLReeve]

  @lassie23 Yep, and that has happened all too often when cold is forecast.  Funny hiw it never seems to happen when the milder weather is being forecast though.

[lassie23]

  @CLReeve the mild weather always arrives on cue or earlier than predicted lol

[raz.org.rain]

  @CLReeve it'll probably happen in abundance come spring and summer 

[Summer8906]

  @Don Ah right ok thanks.

[Summer8906]

4 hours ago, In Absence of True Seasons said:

Agree. An often dismissed part of late-Winter, IMO. Realistically, mid Feb to mid March has a greater chance of bring wintry conditions (and snow) than December does, most years. 

By then though the midday sun is much stronger and the hours of daylight significantly longer, in early March something like 7am to 6pm, 11 hours.

So, unless we get exceptional synoptics such as 2013 or 2018, things end up warming out in the longer and stronger daylight.

I'd go as far as to say that 2013 was the first truly wintry March since 1987.

And 2018 is literally the only time I've experienced lying snow in March lasting longer than a day.

Edited January 24 by Summer8906