Snow Watch: East Mids, Lincs And S & E Yorks Pt 2

[NorthantsSnow]

Indeed, it wont just be coastal areas that it turns to rain/sleet. From the high-def NMM UK model on netweather:

Dewpoints are widley 1-3C even inland. Only people with some elevation will be lucky I reckon.

For now its turned back to snow here at least.

Reef- never had you down as a killjoy! Conditions may not be ideal in Hull, but they've never been better here. Moderate snow continuing to fall here and temp remains below 0C.

[Polar Low]

I think both of you are forecasting based on the fact that Hull is not recieveing optimum conditions for snowfall. Also, I'm sure you know as well as me that nowcasting is much better at this range than looking at the models.

Here in Newark, Nottinghamshire conditiions are actually IMPROVING, temperatures and dew points dropping and the thaw which set it around lunch time is a distant memory. Still expecting an extra 7-10cm's from this.

Meanwhile snow just got a little heavier, after 30 minutes or so of very tiny flakes falling moderately.

Edited February 2, 2009 by Polar Low

[Lady Macbeth]

Well, there's definitely a bit of a thaw going on in Lincoln. Despite a couple of hours of so of heavy snow, my car is only wet not snowy and tyre marks and footprints in the snow are going mushy.

Good technical term that - mushy.

[sunny scunny]

It's been snowing for a few hours here but it's not settling on roads or pavements.

rather disappointing to be honest.

[Hurricane Andrew]

I think both of you are forecasting based on the fact that Hull is not recieveing optimum conditions for snowfall.

Here in Newark, Nottinghamshire conditiions are actually IMPROVING, temperatures and dew points dropping and the thaw which set it around lunch time is a distant memory. Still expecting an extra 7-10cm's from this.

Meanwhile snow just got a little heavier, after 30 minutes or so of very tiny flakes falling moderately.

There only improving because the warm sector has not hit you yet!! The 12z says it all! take a look... Even peeps earlier stating mins of -2 i doubt it... maybe after the band moves through and it starts to clear up...

Temps

Dews

Precip

850'S!

Conclusion

East yorkshire, Lincs, and further inland accept places with i would say 150m elevation will see it turning readily to rain! from around 8-9pm

Not good

Edited February 2, 2009 by Hurricane Andrew

[Polar Low]

There only improving because the warm sector has not hit you yet!! The 12z says it all! take a look... Even peeps earlier stating mins of -2 i doubt it... maybe after the band moves through and it starts to clear up...

Temps

Dews

Precip

850'S!

Conclusion

East yorkshire, Lincs, and further inland accept places with i would say 150m elevation will see it turning readily to rain! from around 8-9pm

Not good

:lol:

Your forecast is wrong, again, do not take the models literally at this range, nowcasting is always preferential in these setups. I don't want to bicker so lets just wait and see,

Edited February 2, 2009 by Polar Low

[MKN]

There only improving because the warm sector has not hit you yet!! The 12z says it all! take a look... Even peeps earlier stating mins of -2 i doubt it... maybe after the band moves through and it starts to clear up...

Temps

Dews

Precip

850'S!

Conclusion

East yorkshire, Lincs, and further inland accept places with i would say 150m elevation will see it turning readily to rain! from around 8-9pm

Not good

http://www.trafficweather.info/roadWeather...p.jsp?client=13

I guess you will have to keep an eye on this see if your right hopefully not though lol

[reef]

Reef- never had you down as a killjoy! Conditions may not be ideal in Hull, but they've never been better here. Moderate snow continuing to fall here and temp remains below 0C.

Ill admit Im a bit grumpy today as we've been letdown yet again here.

People do need to be realistic though. Low ground in Lincolnshire, East Yorkshire and possibly the far east of Nottinghamshire look too be too close to the milder air. Elevation will help somewhat but what we'll probably see is a gradual increase in temperature turning any snow back to a wintry mix or rain.

You'll be ok where you are, on that chart you're pretty close to the 0m snow level line.

As always we wont know for sure until it happens. The models had the heaviest precipitation here and little in the south and look what actually happened.

[Hurricane Andrew]

:lol:

Your forecast is wrong, again, do not take the models literally at this range. I don't want to bicker but just wait and see,

I must be talking to a brick wall. Dont take notice of the models? was we not doing that last night for today? end of the day i dont want to dampen your hopes and excitement but you have to take the obvious. The warm sector will occur, even the ECM is backing the gfs on this one, and the past 4-5days the ecm has had a different output..

[marksp]

well I'm about as far away from the coast as you can get, bang in the middle of the country, and at 160m, even better family living at 200m plus so looks like it will be snow snow snow for me all through the night

[Polar Low]

As always we wont know for sure until it happens. The models had the heaviest precipitation here and little in the south and look what actually happened.

I'm struggling to grasp why you are referring to the models just hours before an event, this is NOT a good idea. I'm sure you're aware of that.

Latest live BBC forecast still in agreement of widespread snowfall this evening and overnight, this is all going as planned so far.

[Hurricane Andrew]

well I'm about as far away from the coast as you can get, bang in the middle of the country, and at 160m, even better family living at 200m plus so looks like it will be snow snow snow for me all through the night

All the other guys should ask marksp if you can camp your house on his patch. IMHO marksp is in one the best areas tonight for some serious accumulations! his elevation helps him a lot.

[Polar Low]

I must be talking to a brick wall. Dont take notice of the models? was we not doing that last night for today? end of the day i dont want to dampen your hopes and excitement but you have to take the obvious. The warm sector will occur, even the ECM is backing the gfs on this one, and the past 4-5days the ecm has had a different output..

If you cannot grasp that models should not be relied upon for accurate predictions for events just hours before, then I'm afraid your brick wall comment is aimed at the wrong person. Nevertheless, no need to bicker is there? I will be reporting throughout the night and will return with pictures tommorow morning at first light... who knows, I might even get an apology? :lol:

[Hurricane Andrew]

I'm struggling to grasp why you are referring to the models just hours before an event, this is NOT a good idea. I'm sure you're aware of that.

Latest live BBC forecast still in agreement of widespread snowfall this evening and overnight, this is all going as planned so far.

What reef means is that although models can be incorrect, when your in a more reliable time frame and the models have been continuing to show the same output for this time frame, and then on top of it when the ECM falls in line with the GFS. It's very rare the models will be wrong. Some locations will be marginal, some fine, some unlucky.. this is how its going to pan out, yorkshire and lincolnshire will have rain within the new few hours, with nottinghamshire falling into line too with rain.

Best places is sheffield (higher up) Derbyshire, North york moors, and of course the penines. (After 8-9PM)

Edited February 2, 2009 by Hurricane Andrew

[doublebarrel]

bickering starting eh, end of reading good night hope you get what you want!

[Polar Low]

What reef means is that although models can be incorrect, when your in a more reliable time frame and the models have been continuing to show the same output for this time frame, and then on top of it when the ECM falls in line with the GFS. It's very rare the models will be wrong. Some locations will be marginal, some fine, some unlucky.. this is how its going to pan out, yorkshire and lincolnshire will have rain within the new few hours, with nottinghamshire falling into line too with rain.

Best places is sheffield (higher up) Derbyshire, North york moors, and of course the penines.

We clearly aren't going to agree... I will just have to wait a few hours and have my point proven for me.

Away from coastal districts, say 15-20 miles inland there will be no issues until the early hours of tomorow morning at the earliest. Hey - don't take my word for it though. Keep updated with the live MetO and Beeb forecasts... and don't forget to check the snow report sections a little later.

Enjoy the night folks!

Edited February 2, 2009 by Polar Low

[andy_leics22]

Hey peeps, here on the East Mids/Central Mids border there is 10cm on the grass and 6-7 on pavement and road, still snowing...

[Bottesford]

Lets keep it friendly please chaps! It is snowing after all...

[Hurricane Andrew]

We clearly aren't going to agree... I will just have to wait a few hours and have my point proven for me.

Away from coastal districts, say 15-20 miles inland there will be no issues until the early hours of tomorow morning at the earliest. Hey - don't take my word for it though. Keep updated with the live MetO and Beeb forecasts... and don't forget to check the snow report sections a little later.

Enjoy the night folks!

May i say just one thing.. look back through my previous posts, did i say directly to you "you will get rain"

I think not, i stated it will become vary marginal for many places, with the obvious locations turning readily to rain. Also with parts of your area becoming marginal. This does not mean where your located will be rain..

Edited February 2, 2009 by Hurricane Andrew

[Polar Low]

Hey peeps, here on the East Mids/Central Mids border there is 10cm on the grass and 6-7 on pavement and road, still snowing...

Good to hear Andy, after a few hours of thawing around dinner time we have seen a return of prolonged moderate to heavy snow.

Accumilating once again on all surfaces, should be a good night.

May i say just one thing.. look back through my previous posts, did i say directly to you "you will get rain"

I think now, i stated it will become vary marginal for many places, with the obvious locations turnign readily to rain. Also with parts of your area becoming marginal. This does not mean where your located will be rain..

My point to you is that areas inland by say 20 miles, will keep the snowfall until well into the early hours of the morning. I expect many areas of the E Mids, some parts of Yorkshire and the rest of the Midlands will see the band clear before things start turning into more of a wintry mix.

Edited February 2, 2009 by Polar Low

[Delta76]

7 cm has fallen in my part of S.Yorks and its still snowing. Just watched weather on News24 at 3 mins to 4 and they reckon it will last until about 10pm here. Must say its great though loads of people walkinh instead of being in thier cars brings back many childhood memories. I'm well satisfied by the amount i've had around here.

[Hurricane Andrew]

ok ill let you off then although you did say areas 10 miles inland earlier

Good to hear Andy, after a few hours of thawing around dinner time we have seen a return of prolonged moderate to heavy snow.

Accumilating once again on all surfaces, should be a good night.

My point to you is that areas inland by say 20 miles, will keep the snowfall until well into the early hours of the morning. I expect many areas of the E Mids, some parts of Yorkshire and the rest of the Midlands will see the band clear before things start turning into more of a wintry mix.

[NorthantsSnow]

You'll be ok where you are, on that chart you're pretty close to the 0m snow level line.

Hope so Reef. Have quite a covering here now. Sleet or rain spoiling the party would not be welcomed!

Sorry you haven't had the best of luck today, but plenty more snow opportunities likely this week

[Mark Bayley]

Still snowing here however its gone to that snow grain stuff, should be off and on over the next few hours which is good

[Polar Low]

ok ill let you off then although you did say areas 10 miles inland earlier

I honestly think by your prediction of 8-9pm many areas just 10 miles inland will still see snowfall. After that kind of time period, I'm not disputing the fact that Eastern Yorkshire and eastern areas of Lincolnshire will see a gradual change from Snow to rain, but I still stand by my prediction (which the latest BBC and MetO forecast backs up) that most areas of the E Mids westwards will see snowfall from the majority of this band.