Winter 2012/13 - General Chat

[chionomaniac]

But how accurate are the ecm seasonals chino? And whats the different between that one and ecm32 dayer?(except one is for a month and the other a full season)lol

I don't know how accurate they are, having not really followed them. Matt Hugo has suggested that they have been unreliable. Let's hope he is right.

[georgiedre]

Damn right chino..heres hoping for an amazing winter for the record books. Yhanks for the reply.

[bradymk]

Latest EC32 Day model continues to signal N blocking late Nov/early Dec with cold temps & a likely risk of wintry weather given the pattern.

Matt on Twitter

[Great Plum]

It's interesting because the ECM seasonal outlook is the first forecast for the winter that suggests a +NAO outlook... Whilst this agrees with the current cooling strat, it goes against what the Met are predicting (70% chance of colder than average I think I read), Glacier Point's preliminary thoughts and many other LRFs.

This time last year, LRFs were far more mixed!

[Mark Neal.]

From what I hear the new seasonal ECM has a positive NAO look for the whole of winter. Not good news if you believe this model.

Good job i don't believe this model then

On a serious note, this would be a horrible situation for people looking for prolonged cold this winter, lets hope it is wrong.

[weather is fun]

Think people are getting too hung up over the met office outlook. They are saying a possibility of cold at end of this month. Plus a cold winter. Now this is the met office guys who predicted bbq summers lol. Plus we were forecast heavy rain today. And what do we have?. Yes thats right blue sky and sunshine. So i will be taking there winter outlook with a huge pinch of salt to be honest. Is the ecm seasonal model onto something? Who knows only time will tell.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Think people are getting too hung up over the met office outlook. They are saying a possibility of cold at end of this month. Plus a cold winter. Now this is the met office guys who predicted bbq summers lol. Plus we were forecast heavy rain today. And what do we have?. Yes thats right blue sky and sunshine. So i will be taking there winter outlook with a huge pinch of salt to be honest. Is the ecm seasonal model onto something? Who knows only time will tell.

Could you please pop your location into your profile.

[AWD]

Some tweets from Matt Hugo regarding the two models;

Latest EC32 Day model continues to signal N blocking late Nov/early Dec with cold temps & a likely risk of wintry weather given the pattern.

Higher confidence in the 4 wk EC32 day than the seasonal model which clearly covers months not just out to 4 weeks.

ECM seasonal model, last update before Dec, continues to show a mild/wet winter with high pressure to the S and low pressure to the N or NW.

[Mark Neal.]

Think people are getting too hung up over the met office outlook. They are saying a possibility of cold at end of this month. Plus a cold winter. Now this is the met office guys who predicted bbq summers lol. Plus we were forecast heavy rain today. And what do we have?. Yes thats right blue sky and sunshine. So i will be taking there winter outlook with a huge pinch of salt to be honest. Is the ecm seasonal model onto something? Who knows only time will tell.

The Met Office are only stating that they are favouring a colder than average end to the month and beginning of Dec, this is one of many solutions, so we are still poised as to what will happen come Early Dec.

The long range probablity charts are suggesting that there is a higher chance of colder weather for winter, but that no means suggests they are expecting it to be confidently cold.

Yes, i think at the start of the week we were due to have rain today and we will, it will spread in late afternoon & into the night, just over the last few days it has been put back timewise.

Edited November 9, 2012 by Mark Neal.

[bobbydog]

Think people are getting too hung up over the met office outlook. They are saying a possibility of cold at end of this month. Plus a cold winter. Now this is the met office guys who predicted bbq summers lol. Plus we were forecast heavy rain today. And what do we have?. Yes thats right blue sky and sunshine. So i will be taking there winter outlook with a huge pinch of salt to be honest. Is the ecm seasonal model onto something? Who knows only time will tell.

you might want to look at this- http://www.raintoday.co.uk/ before you start 'lol' -ing at the met office....

[Methuselah]

The Met Office are only stating that they are favouring a colder than average end to the month and beginning of Dec, this is one of many solutions, so we are still poised as to what will happen come Early Dec.

The long range probablity charts are suggesting that there is a higher chance of colder weather for winter, but that no means suggests they are expecting it to be confidently cold.

Yes, i think at the start of the week we were due to have rain today and we will, it will spread in late afternoon & into the night, just over the last few days it has been put back timewise.

Which is, IMO, the very point that too many folks want to conveniently overlook...It's NOT a forecast!

[bobbydog]

Which is, IMO, the very point that too many folks want to conveniently overlook...It's NOT a forecast!

just to add to that pete, if any of these dissenters would like to point me in the direction of the met office winter forecast, i would be extremely grateful.

because as far as i was aware, they don't do one!!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Which is, IMO, the very point that too many folks want to conveniently overlook...It's NOT a forecast!

BUT Pete, I certainly haven't seen that for a while. Its good to see and i suspect they 'currently' believe its a 'more likely' outcome? I mean they haven't done a video for a stromy or super mild one have they?

BFTP

Edited November 9, 2012 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[shedhead]

I'd agree it's a little odd for the MO to come out with a forecast for 3 weeks time, but I'd urge members to listen carefully to what's actually said. The clear message is this is only one possibility, even the title 'Cold weather on the way?' is a question rather than a statement of either fact or expectation, so I'd be retiscent to take this video too seriously at this stage....interesting tho it is.

[syed2878]

1qs guys what sigs r the met and gp seeing calling for a cold winter? I mean the strat is cooling and even the ecm seasonal going for a mild winter i dont understand. Thx.

[Great Plum]

Syed, I suggest you look at GP's video. There's a link to it on the front page...

[EML Network]

I think a late November / Early December cold spell is looking more and more probable

check this little beauty out....but don't go looking at the rest if Winter, because if you believe the CFS then this right here is going to it for Winter ...hopefully they and the ECM will both be wrong. I will be waiting eagerly the Met Office LR Probability chart update, this for me will be the deciding factor for Decembers likely outcome, as things stand I can't see December being particularly cold for the most part.

WEEK 3 CET

WEEK 5 CET

[Paul]

It's all the same as ever really Syed - long range forecasts offer no guarantees and you can pretty much always find a lrf which is the polar opposite of another one ahead of any season. The ECM seasonal forecasts (from what I've seen) aren't the best - they were going for a mild winter in 2010/11 for instance, but there again that's no guarantee of it being incorrect on this occasion.

Going back to the now infamous video (it's deja-vu in here this morning), the BBC take their data from the met office, the ECM monlthly model is showing cold, the met use that model as part of their suite and I'd suggest that'll be the main driver for the video. The BBC are a media outlet, their aim (even as a public service broadcaster) is to bring people to their output (websites, tv etc), and the video does just that - it's got people talking, it even features a 20 second 'ad' for their website and a call to action to visit weekly to keep up with the latest longer range outlook.

As is said on the video, a colder spell is one potential option, I'd suggest (for many) it's the most interesting option, the most likely to be talked about option and therefore the most likely to be featured option on a video, nothing more, nothing less imo..

[Aaron]

Which is, IMO, the very point that too many folks want to conveniently overlook...It's NOT a forecast!

And the very point you and many other people are overlooking is it is obviously the most probable outcome - that is the crux of the point. Is that so hard to understand? Nobody is overlooking the other possible outcomes, but if the Met are favouring a colder outcome, then people on here will understandably get excited. Isn't that one of the points of this threads' existence? Edited November 9, 2012 by Aaron

[Paul]

The point of the threads existence Aaron is for people to discuss the upcoming winter and within that they're all entitled to their own opinion. Pete has shared his, you disagree which is fair enough, but that's not a reason to start ranting about the point of the thread as if Pete has broken the rules in some way.

[johnholmes]

Aaron no you are not necessarily correct. Read the comment by Paul about the BBC and commercial pressures. Also please read exactly what Helen said, ONE of the options IF the easterly did develop.

Not it will it looks a high probability, ONE of the POSSIBLE outcomes.

Please also read my last post in the model thread.

This obsession, because that is what it is, with winter has to be cold and sowy is going to lead I would imagine to a lot of toys out of prams before next spring at the rate we seem to diving downwards on this forum recently.

Please all of you READ CAREFULLY what is being posted, 2+2=4!

[bobbydog]

And the very point you and many other people are overlooking is it is obviously the most probable outcome - that is the crux of the point. Is that so hard to understand? Nobody is overlooking the other possible outcomes, but if the Met are favouring a colder outcome, then people on here will understandably get excited. Isn't that one of the points of this threads' existence?

no-one is overlooking that at all. it may well be the most probable outcome as things stand at the moment. or at least it is a high enough probability to mention. the point is, it is NOT a forecast. it is a possible outcome which will be of interest to many people, which is why it has been highlighted. the problem is, people will overlook the other possibilities, take that as THE forecast and slate the met office when it doesn't happen. THAT is what people find so hard to understand.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I've never seen them do that before, is it something done fairly often or is it as Paul says a way of 'advertising' their site and getting 'visitors'.

BFTP

[Aiden2012]

I'm loving the charts ATM

[fergieweather]

I've never seen them do that before, is it something done fairly often or is it as Paul says a way of 'advertising' their site and getting 'visitors'.

BFTP

No: it was produced to explain rationale for UKMO 30-d comments after internal discussion.