E.N.S.O. Discussion

[Don]

On 20/06/2023 at 21:02, Gray-Wolf said:

Hmmm.... can I remember warning folk, back in the mid-noughties just what we had to come if we didn't take immediate & meaningful action.....oh how you all scorned.....now we have our own 'Ocean Heatwave to our West & an Aussie Nino forecast like never before.....

Strap in folks!

(* So pleased the E.U. built our Flood defenses here!!!.....hope You all got yours.....)

In hindsight, we needed to take immediate and meaningful action 50 years ago!  I think we are too late now?!  However, that's in no way to say we shouldn't take action now!

Edited June 29, 2023 by Don

[Derecho]

On 25/06/2023 at 04:08, CreweCold said:

If we could just get a moderate CP Nino, we could be all set this coming winter.

A moderate Nino (especially a CP one) tends to correlate to a Euro trough I believe. Funnily enough the Dec height anomalies have, over the past day or so, started to introduce a Dec Euro LP anomaly. Coincidence? 

The recent daddy of the euro-trough? 09-10.

Something like this would suffice

P.s the England cold record would probably go under that set up (somewhere sheltered under the slack flow in the S)...We can but dream eh...

An El Nino Modoki along with an eastern based La Nina are my two favourite setups approaching winter.

Seems like there is a casual link between the anomaly gradient between Nino 1+2 to 3.4 regions... the warmer the Central Pacific anomalies in comparison to the east the better.

After many years of La Nina patterns it'll be interesting to see what an El Nino this time round will throw up. I think its fair to say the window for a big El Nino event has at least closed. 

[Gray-Wolf]

26 minutes ago, Don said:

In hindsight, we needed to take immediate and meaningful action 50 years ago!  I think we are too late now?!  However, that's in no way to say we shouldn't take action now!

Sure is & I don't really think our climate guys know what happens if we see a domino Fall' of all the 'tipping points we are at?

One goes, they ALL go....

As I say 'Strap in' eh?

[Don]

23 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think its fair to say the window for a big El Nino event has at least closed. 

Lets hope so, although even if we don't have a big event this year, I'm sure we will in the near future?!

[alexisj9]

On 26/06/2023 at 19:27, blizzard81 said:

I'm also liking the cfs precipitation anomalies for the coming winter. The trend is clear and getting stronger. Just look at the strong anomaly down towards the adriatic. Let's hope this trend gains traction as we count down the months. 

That's an anomaly, so basically average rainfall as it's not in the negative or positive, right?

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

An El Nino Modoki along with an eastern based La Nina are my two favourite setups approaching winter.

Seems like there is a casual link between the anomaly gradient between Nino 1+2 to 3.4 regions... the warmer the Central Pacific anomalies in comparison to the east the better.

After many years of La Nina patterns it'll be interesting to see what an El Nino this time round will throw up. I think its fair to say the window for a big El Nino event has at least closed. 

Saw a tweet from an American forecaster earlier showing the CFS control run, the model appears to be sniffing something out at the moment. Spectacular winter -NAO

That is some 3 month mean there in the first image.

Edited June 30, 2023 by CreweCold

[sebastiaan1973]

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-qbo-polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

About the developing EQBO & ENSO.

[northwestsnow]

2 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2023-2024-qbo-polar-vortex-el-nino-weather-impact-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

About the developing EQBO & ENSO.

I expect a wet autumn...

[Derecho]

20 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Saw a tweet from an American forecaster earlier showing the CFS control run, the model appears to be sniffing something out at the moment. Spectacular winter -NAO

That is some 3 month mean there in the first image.

If we get an El Nino Modoki then I think 1968/69 and 2009/10 would be good analogues - both winters were blocked throughout.

El Nino winters tend to be Atlantic dominated in the first half and more blocked in the second. Get a blocked December in an El Nino and that is often a good omen for the winter ahead. 1940/41 would be another good example.

Edited June 30, 2023 by Quicksilver1989

[blizzard81]

On 29/06/2023 at 22:17, alexisj9 said:

That's an anomaly, so basically average rainfall as it's not in the negative or positive, right?

Just go with the flow. 

[SqueakheartLW]

Yet again in general the models overestimated the strength of El Nino for June 2023. Below I have inserted a screenshot of a table showing what was predicted, then the actual values based on tropical tidbits then the difference between them.

Notice a lot of negative values in the difference column showing how the models overestimated the strength of the El Nino for June 2023. NINO 1+2 was probably the closest to what was actually predicted with CFS underestimating and ECM overestimating. The other regions were all overestimated.

This trend continues on from May 2023 which was also overestimated too.

Using region 3.4 May was overestimated by -0.07C to -0.17C and June by -0.22C to -0.32C.

If this trend continues then by November, the usual month of ENSO peak we could be -0.97C to -1.07C under the original prediction.

In May 2023 CFS was going for a November peak of +2.6C in region 3.4 and ECM +2.0C

Reduce these values by the projected overestimation will see a likely El Nino peak of between +0.93C at the lowest end through to +1.63C at the upper end so anywhere from a stronger Weak El Nino through to a weaker Strong El Nino looking most likely at this stage which would mean a Moderate event is most favoured with this occupying all of the mid range between these lower and upper values.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Have read on the weekly ENSO report that the el niño is meant to be moderate in strength come the winter, at the moment though the development has stalled probably by an inactive MJO and still awaiting the next CCKW.   Also we have easterly trades that are interfering currently fighting the el niño development, bit like we got in 2009 really at times.   

[Catacol]

It's very very early days....but Nino of no more than the moderate variety plus -eQBO in full flow is a decent envelope to work within. 

[summer blizzard]

28JUN2022: Nino3: 1.4 , Nino3.4: 0.9 , Nino4: 0.6

June ONI came in at +0.9.

AMJ ONI came in at +0.5. 

Sub-surface has finally taken on a more traditional look during June which should encourage forcing closer to the dateline and allow greater atmospheric coupling. 

 

To update our list and ranking. 

Our updated list for AMJ.

1957: +0.9

1972: +0.7

1976: -0.3

1986: -0.1

2002: +0.4

2009: 0

2014: 0.2

2018: -0.2

 

2023: +0.5

 

NOAA actually updated MAM to +0.2 which means we were joint third, we retain third position. 

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thank you very much summer blizzard and we await to see that transfer into the NWP output.  The concern I have is the easterly trades currently and I also believe that they are putting a dent in the el niño development.  

[SqueakheartLW]

58 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Thank you very much summer blizzard and we await to see that transfer into the NWP output.  The concern I have is the easterly trades currently and I also believe that they are putting a dent in the el niño development.  

On the plus side they could have been doing us a big favour and removing the risk of a winter killer Super Nino.

Also on the plus side is that these trades could help push the warmest anomalies away from the eastern Pacific and help us to get more of a central Pacific event instead.

Edited July 4, 2023 by SqueakheartLW

[Methuselah]

A couple of vids on the upcoming El Nino:

 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

55 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

On the plus side they could have been doing us a big favour and removing the risk of a winter killer Super Nino.

Also on the plus side is that these trades could help push the warmest anomalies away from the eastern Pacific and help us to get more of a central Pacific event instead.

Like we got in 2009 really, think the niño system is kicking in with how the weather is behaving like at the moment in the UK, it is weakening the azores high currently.    

[summer blizzard]

46 minutes ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Like we got in 2009 really, think the niño system is kicking in with how the weather is behaving like at the moment in the UK, it is weakening the azores high currently.    

The Central Pacific was coupled from May in 2009, it more or less coupled once it got going. 

We have high AAM globally but the forcing with our event is splitting between Africa, West Pacific and East Pacific. It's neither coherent or stable which is why we are riding the coattails of the warm sub-surface but not much more currently. 

[Addicks Fan 1981]

Thanks summer blizzard for the information, much appreciated and think we need to keep a close eye on things.    

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, Addicks Fan 1981 said:

Like we got in 2009 really, think the niño system is kicking in with how the weather is behaving like at the moment in the UK, it is weakening the azores high currently.    

This July showing shades of July 2009. A cyclonic month...

[cheeky_monkey]

being very close to the Pacific moderate to strong El Nino looking at the last 4 occasions are typified by a front loaded winters with very early springs also little in the way of snow..

[Don]

51 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

being very close to the Pacific moderate to strong El Nino looking at the last 4 occasions are typified by a front loaded winters with very early springs also little in the way of snow..

Sounds like that would suit you?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Think there may be a step change this year. Over the past several years we’ve seen Canada and the USA go abnormally cold…I have a feeling it may be Europe’s turn this coming winter.

[Addicks Fan 1981]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Think there may be a step change this year. Over the past several years we’ve seen Canada and the USA go abnormally cold…I have a feeling it may be Europe’s turn this coming winter.

There will be very interesting times ahead I must say.  

Edited July 4, 2023 by Addicks Fan 1981