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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul,

Please remember this is a model based discussion - some chat is ok, but a weather model related theme should run throughout.

The guiding principles of everyone's participation in this thread are:
Be kind -- Stay on topic -- Share your knowledge -- Be polite -- Be honest -- Be tolerant -- Be family friendly

For a less frenetic look at the models head over to the alternate model discussion. 

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Arch Stanton Enthusiast

Arch Stanton

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
19 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Watching temps on the near continent tonight..

 Already falling and -2C in Calais and Bruges, even lower in Belgium and Denmark where temps of -2 -4C . Most of N France is now also freezing.

Northern Germany under cloud, but still falling around -3C,  Much colder further East  -4C in Poland and -10'sC in Western most parts of Russia.

That is what we need to see ahead of Friday, for if we do pick up an easterly.. 

MIA 

A cold continent is always key, when Germany & the Low Countries are at 6-7c then anything we get is usually short lived or transient 

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Midlands Ice Age Maestro

Midlands Ice Age

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, Snow and Storms
  • Location: Solihull, West Midlands. - 131 m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, Arch Stanton said:

A cold continent is always key, when Germany & the Low Countries are at 6-7c then anything we get is usually short lived or transient 

We are talking 3 - 4 days time.

 MIA

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snowsummer Aficionado

snowsummer

Posted
  • Location: South ockendon essex
  • Weather Preferences: thunderstorms and HEAVY snow
  • Location: South ockendon essex
Posted
4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Absolutely not looking beyond 120hrs tops at present, make that 96hrs after the last week we've endured!

Im not looking further than out my window!

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, booferking said:

And icon says a big fat nope.

icon-0-63.png

Absolutely ridiculous now, surely by the 00z runs this will be resolved. Who will end up with egg all over their face then? JMA top model....or ICON....

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, snowray said:

Absolutely ridiculous now, surely by the 00z runs this will be resolved. Who will end up with egg all over their face then? JMA top model....or ICON....

Could it not be resolved now, tia

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
Just now, Mariescb said:

So are we talking a genuine chance at a possible colder outlook going forward are is it making a mountain out of a molehill. Tia 

Not really imo

Looks unsettled and wet threw the latter part of the weekend and next week, temps slightly above average. That's the forecast so it will know doubt be labeled wrong

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jellybaby1969 Rising Star

jellybaby1969

Posted
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
  • Location: Irvine 10ASL
Posted
16 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

How is anyone supposed to construct a TV forecast out of this shambles

Quite easy..just forecast permagloom..Temps between 10c n 4c for Xmas day drizzle n odd wintery shower high ground in Wales n Midlands.

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted

My post was in reply to Sheiky’s question, and he lives in the Midlands. I’m not even going to be in the Midlands for Christmas weekend (I’ll be in London).

Never mind.  Roll on the pub run (and the GFS 18z)  

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Popular Post
Posted

Come on guys, getting a bit childish the snipes in here, lets stop this now, if you want to the ability to carry on posting.

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Lauren Veteran

Lauren

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Popular Post
Posted

We're having to hide a lot of arguing posts again. Play nicely, folks.

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted

Whether gfs moves to ecm or whatever does not mean it’s done! I don’t think we will be much clearer come the morning tbh, I’d say tomorrow 12s would hopefully start to become clear but even then I expect changes hopefully small ones though not giant flip flops 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
30 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

The 'air' over the continent is not expected to get the mild air we might receive.

Look at the UKV graphs above. Colder air into the oncominng depression will re-invigorate it forming a discreet cell (in the Channel(?)), pulling colder northerlies in behind it.

MIA

 

Quick check of Brussels taken at random had it around 8s and 9s from tomorrow into weekend.. what I’m I missing with this cold air on the continent to draw in..

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
33 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Right having studied the charts, I'm going to take a punt on everything moving towards the UKMO/GEM by this time tomorrow.

As T0 approaches, based on model behavior I've seen over the years, I'd expect a slight shift west under the ridge to the north (i.e. the northern flank of the low), and a slight shift east on the southern flank. This would stretch the Atlantic low slightly faster than forecast. Bearing in mind we are a whisker away from the Scandi low phasing with the Atlantic low and keeping heights trapped north, any phasing could result in quite a large change, and this would further exaggerate the pattern more towards the GEM.

Possibly a UKMO solution as a halfway house between GFS/ECM and GEM?

Think I’m in a similar position, but it is still brown trousers time!  But there must be some correction on the GFS 18z, surely!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm with MIB , and I'm thinking GFS 18z is going to go all UKMO ...

Fingers crossed ......

I was thinking by tomorrow evening. I just recall many battleground times where everything gets a tiny shunt at around T48.

If I'm wrong, I'll hide in a corner with the rest of my mince pies...

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted

If we can get a small wedge of heights cut off acrooss iceland between 48 and 72 hours then its game on!!if we cant and we get a finger of heights drooping into the continent then i reckon we done and dusted!!

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Blessed Weather Maestro

Blessed Weather

Posted
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: An Alpine climate - snowy winters and sunny summers
  • Location: Hadleigh, Suffolk
Posted

Many posts have been removed this evening. As the team continually asks, please report an off-topic post or a post you think is causing a problem, rather than responding to it which causes the team more problems. Many thanks.

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

What are we actually chasing? Can anyone remember? 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
Just now, Spah1 said:

What are we actually chasing? Can anyone remember? 

Very good question.. I think we are about to move onto scandi high option early near year…

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

So to the pub run then?  Roll that dice:

82E34BB5-F30F-427A-A498-FEA84075832E.thumb.jpeg.367b8d6867e3d41bfab8b4d484beecb2.jpeg

I’ve not really felt moved to post in here as often as maybe I would usually during this fiasco, and it is because while it is fun to post the charts as they run out, it has been very difficult after we’ve seen a suite of runs (for me usually the 12z runs) to produce a summary of where I think we are headed on any timescale (from T72 on).  It is that uncertain.  Anyway, pub run rolling now…

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